SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The setup at 500mb just does not look like one that would produce anything other than a near miss to me. I cannot even recall any storm that had that sort of setup at the upper levels where the system could manage to amplify enough and come up the coast. It almost has some characteristics of 2/83 and 12/09 in that the 500mb trough seems to basically intensify on its own with no real phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 No amplification to turn up the coast. Lets see what 0z brings. Flippy floppy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 1996 H5 featured a more meridional pattern overall, with a strong PNA ridge up through south central Canada, and a deep/amplified short wave with a ton of vorticity in the East. Closed off at h5. If you were going to make a comparison to a major storm, President's day 2003 looks much closer IMO. Much flatter ridge out West, short wave nowhere near as dynamic, and precip primarily due to overrunning. Yes, I just said that for the surface depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The setup at 500mb just does not look like one that would produce anything other than a near miss to me. I cannot even recall any storm that had that sort of setup at the upper levels where the system could manage to amplify enough and come up the coast. It almost has some characteristics of 2/83 and 12/09 in that the 500mb trough seems to basically intensify on its own with no real phasing. I agree that the concern with this one would be miss east (as opposed to rainy/warm); however, as I noted re PD II, the PNA ridge was actually even flatter in that particular scenario, yet the SW flow aloft on east coast allowed the sfc low to crawl up the mid atlantic coast. The positive NAO over the next week may in fact help us with this event, in tightening the baroclinic zone and enhancing upper ridging off the SE US coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 No amplification to turn up the coast. Lets see what 0z brings. Flippy floppy The general idea on the ensembles is somewhat encouraging--there is support for the operational runs idea of shortwave capable of producing cyclogenesis off/near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is something to keep an eye out for sure. Temps in all levels look cold enough but without the PNA ridge and NAO not low enough could be the only problem. It looks like possibly a overrunning or possibly a Miller B in the wings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I agree that the concern with this one would be miss east (as opposed to rainy/warm); however, as I noted re PD II, the PNA ridge was actually even flatter in that particular scenario, yet the SW flow aloft on east coast allowed the sfc low to crawl up the mid atlantic coast. The positive NAO over the next week may in fact help us with this event, in tightening the baroclinic zone and enhancing upper ridging off the SE US coast. Its very unlikely with the pattern out west and over S Canada that this would be able to cut west, its either a miss or as you said one of those rare instances where a +NAO won't kill your chances at a storm. I'd like it if the surface high to the north was a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 At 144 it looks VERY much like 96 at 13z on the 7th. (Surface) THis is a little bit over the top with comparing with January '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 THis is a little bit over the top with comparing with January '96. Dear god, just from the surface for 1 frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Dear god, just from the surface for 1 frame. I know. I am not bashing you at all. I did it myself many times in the past, the analog comparsions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Dear god, just from the surface for 1 frame. think about it, there is a reason its one of two nesis 5's, its a rare historic storm. Chances are, if you are trying to compare one frame of one run for a storm 144 hours out, its probably NOT going to look like 96 and even if it did, put it in banter so no one does what we are doing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 NAM has snow for a tiny bit at white plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe a wet mangled flake for AG3 at the beginning, but it goes warm quickly after this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i thought it was interesting how the GFS trended towards the euro in regards to holding back the 500mb low in the SW, yet it still managed to get a storm off the coast. This is a good sign as that northern stream could mean business. We'll see what the 00zs say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i thought it was interesting how the GFS trended towards the euro in regards to holding back the 500mb low in the SW, yet it still managed to get a storm off the coast. This is a good sign as that northern stream could mean business. We'll see what the 00zs say If you are talking about the low that was there at 18 Z run at 150 hours ..it vanished! Phantom storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If you are talking about the low that was there at 18 Z run at 150 hours ..it vanished! Phantom storm! its too bad that 500mb low doesnt get involved and just drifts in the pacific because with a lot of cold air around we would definitely get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Would be the icing on the cake for not only the gfs to take away our storm, but to watch the south get a huge blizzard next week with a suppressed overruning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Would be the icing on the cake for not only the gfs to take away our storm, but to watch the south get a huge blizzard next week with a suppressed overruning event. This is the sort of thing I mentioned is possible too, below is a classic example of one. A great setup with a massive strung out arctic high but it was just too strong. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us0218.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Would be the icing on the cake for not only the gfs to take away our storm, but to watch the south get a huge blizzard next week with a suppressed overruning event. Would be nice for them, but very frustrating for us. Anyway, still a decent chance that tracks north, but we always have to worry about TOO N&W in this pattern. Did the Euro have a storm around then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Would be nice for them, but very frustrating for us. Anyway, still a decent chance that tracks north, but we always have to worry about TOO N&W in this pattern. Did the Euro have a storm around then? The 00Z Euro appeared to have a system Day 7-9 or so that tracked NW of us over NW NY and then exploded once over Quebec but it was easily a rain event for everyone south of Binghamton from what I could see. This is a very risky pattern though for models regarding low tracks, they will often take things too far north in these gradient pattern setups, particularly weaker waves. That was a major problem in 93-94, the models continually were driving systems N &W showing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is no way to run a pattern change - + NAO no -NAO in site - SOI neg. 1.69 and rising rapidly the last couple days - PNA negative and AO rising again in positive territory - same pattern is going to continue until further notice - wouldn't be surpring if Januanry ends up with 0 snowfall in NYC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z NAM has nearly 1.50" of rain in NYC for Wednesday night into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z NAM has nearly 1.50" of rain in NYC for Wednesday night into Thursday. Thrilling .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z NAM has nearly 1.50" of rain in NYC for Wednesday night into Thursday. it doesn't rain less than 1 inch anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 it doesn't rain less than 1 inch anymore. Actually it does, outside of meteorological winter. But during DJF, it always rains 1-2"+ in order to rub salt in a wound that's been opened several times over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Actually it does, outside of meteorological winter. But during DJF, it always rains 1-2"+ in order to rub salt in a wound that's been opened several times over. the rain events this summer were all soakers, the fall too. Its amazing. Yes, I know they all aren't over an inch, but its amazing how the crappiest vorts produce a ton of qpf now, even in non-nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Actually it does, outside of meteorological winter. But during DJF, it always rains 1-2"+ in order to rub salt in a wound that's been opened several times over. Most storms look like weak, .25"-.50" type events but as we approach, they ramp up and turn into 1"-3" rain soakers. Been going on for over a year. And is contintuing this "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 the rain events this summer were all soakers, the fall too. Its amazing. Yes, I know they all aren't over an inch, but its amazing how the crappiest vorts produce a ton of qpf now, even in non-nino years. And when there finally is a 2-3 week period of cold in February, there wont be any vorts or any systems at all. Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z NAM has nearly 1.50" of rain in NYC for Wednesday night into Thursday. just what we need. Do you have the QPF map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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