Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Yeah we've seen Saturday's forecast go from low 40s to now near 50 and it wouldn't surprise me if Sunday is pretty close to that. Like 3 Saturdays ago when places got into the 60s and forecasts busted by 5 to 10 degrees. Yep, just a couple days ago Sunday and Monday were supposed to be in the mid/upper 30s. Now it looks like we just might barely drop below freezing one of those nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The dewpoint in Philly right now is 57. In January. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Yeah we've seen Saturday's forecast go from low 40s to now near 50 and it wouldn't surprise me if Sunday is pretty close to that. Like 3 Saturdays ago when places got into the 60s and forecasts busted by 5 to 10 degrees. NAM has highs of 42-44 for tomorrow. 40-42 for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Actually those days when it gets cold, it usually busts too high. There were a few days this month that were supposed to be 5-8 degrees higher than they actually were. I'm betting the same thing may happen Monday, actual highs will probably be lower than forecasts show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 My goodness it is pouring here. But once the storms come through, the models are indicating the surface front lagging behind through 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 6z GFS had alot of good feautres, especially towards the end of the run. Massive PNA ridge out west, PV over eastern Canada. Overall there seems to be pretty good model consensus on a PNA ridge. Too bad its still a neutral NAO at best, even on the ECMWF. All the really cold air is stuck up by Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Why would it change? If anything, the models have been too fast with pattern changes, at this range. Because at that distance there are often changes. You really think a 168 hour forecast in winter is set in stone? It's a different type of storm, but our one snow event was supposed to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 POURING here now. Feels like a tropical downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Because at that distance there are often changes. You really think a 168 hour forecast in winter is set in stone? It's a different type of storm, but our one snow event was supposed to be rain. Of course, nothing is set is stone. But based on what scientific reason, do you thing the models would be wrong? What would they be faster bring in the pattern change, if they have been too fast in the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Of course, nothing is set is stone. But based on what scientific reason, do you thing the models would be wrong? What would they be faster bring in the pattern change, if they have been too fast in the past? We've seen +PNAs this winter, but never timed correctly. Things are at least more favorable than they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 POURING here now. Feels like a tropical downpour. Yea it poured here too. Feels like early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Monsooning here. Pouring is so played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Grrrr....my 2nd biggest pet peeve after confusing sleet for hail is using that term to describe heavy rain Monsooning here. Pouring is so played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I swear I forgot it was still January until I looked at my computer and looked at the date on the bottom right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Grrrr....my 2nd biggest pet peeve after confusing sleet for hail is using that term to describe heavy rain sue me. I know the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I was just speaking in general. I know you know the difference. sue me. I know the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 In Central Park, 15 of the last 76 days have averaged below normal until the ASOS power failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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