ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 In your view, is the Atlantic driven pattern "more" of a factor for us seeing the larger events; I think it sure is; 2009-2010 and last year proved that to me; but there are such exceptions where a excellent Pac can overcome a bad Atlantic, but I would take an ideal Atlantic, you know, for the heck of it. Some form of a good NAO block...whether classic or pseudo is present in a lot of big KU events...not all..but a majority of them...so yes, you usually want to see some sort of weakness in the pattern up there. Particularly between Hudson Bay and the Davis Straight...but some of them are more over eastern Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 The antecendent air mass blows chunks with that storm system...theres a broad area of +2 to +4 850 temps. The storm would be an absolute monster if we had any cold air in place. I think there's a point where model speculation ends though...the storm system may not develop as advertised, sure. But the air mass probably won't suddenly trend way colder and more supportive. I guess we could still pull it off though..with dynamic cooling and a better air mass right on the heels of the storm. We will see. It's something to watch, at least, shining like a beacon of light in this incessantly boring winter we've had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Well not on the 180 threat...its not arctic air yet...but after that it gets a lot colder. That's why the 180 threat is kind of meh right now for the coast...it can work out...the time frame is so far out that it could be a lakes cutter, lol...but it probably won't have a good airmass with it, but who knows, I don't want to speculate too much on one threat that far out. But the pattern behind it looks to have its chances. Pressing arctic airmass that's coming doesn't appear that it will spare anyone down here.I'm not qualified to argue whether the storm next week is snow or not, but I am pretty sure I'm reading the h5 maps fairly correct....I snowed and sleeted today with the current Pacific junk lol.....winter is coming and grown men will be crying for their Mommas and Sisters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Pressing arctic airmass that's coming doesn't appear that it will spare anyone down here.I'm not qualified to argue whether the storm next week is snow or not, but I am pretty sure I'm reading the h5 maps fairly correct....I snowed and sleeted today with the current Pacific junk lol.....winter is coming and grown men will be crying for their Mommas and Sisters When it's 60 and sunny two weeks from now, I'll have to remember this line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 When it's 60 and sunny two weeks from now, I'll have to remember this line... And if it is, I'll embrace it and be on the beach as well. I'm not forecasting anything.....just trying to interpret the data we are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 00Z GFS goes February 1989 with its arctic outbreaks in the long range....disregard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 00Z GFS goes February 1989 with its arctic outbreaks in the long range....disregard... Hopefully we get another Feb 24-25, 1989 just to see the board meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hopefully we get another Feb 24-25, 1989 just to see the board meltdown. You only post in the NYC thread when you are concerned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hopefully we get another Feb 24-25, 1989 just to see the board meltdown. Hard to imagine we'd get a forecast that bad inside 12 hours though in this ERA. Regardless the board would meltdown over such a near miss anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hopefully we get another Feb 24-25, 1989 just to see the board meltdown. Oh no, 6 to 10" forecasted, I saw three snow flakes while ACY got crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Oh no, 6 to 10" forecasted, I saw three snow flakes while ACY got crushed. I think it was worse than that, the forecast was 8-12 the night before, they began backing off a bit on the 10-11pm newscasts but not much, the next AM they still were saying 4-8, it was not til around noon that everything was dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I think it was worse than that, the forecast was 8-12 the night before, they began backing off a bit on the 10-11pm newscasts but not much, the next AM they still were saying 4-8, it was not til around noon that everything was dropped. i just looked at the upper air charts for that storm and its unbelievable how it didn't come more west. but i think in our time now a bust to that magnitude likely wouldn't happen, i would hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 i just looked at the upper air charts for that storm and its unbelievable how it didn't come more west. but i think in our time now a bust to that magnitude likely wouldn't happen, i would hope lol There was no PV in S Canada to capture the 500mb low off the MA coast and take it more north, the upper feature was basically trapped in a pattern where it has nowhere to go but out to sea instead of coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I think it was worse than that, the forecast was 8-12 the night before, they began backing off a bit on the 10-11pm newscasts but not much, the next AM they still were saying 4-8, it was not til around noon that everything was dropped. That was a crazy day, I remember Loydd Lindsey Young WOR Trying to be optimistic around noon time saying the storm was delayed, be patient it will come, and for a time it seemed true as clouds lowered with a few random big snow flurries, but then an hour later the sun shined and thats when we knew it was busted. And yes, I doubt a bust like that could ever happen today, at least not like that, inside 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Well not on the 180 threat...its not arctic air yet...but after that it gets a lot colder. That's why the 180 threat is kind of meh right now for the coast...it can work out...the time frame is so far out that it could be a lakes cutter, lol...but it probably won't have a good airmass with it, but who knows, I don't want to speculate too much on one threat that far out. But the pattern behind it looks to have its chances. The 180 threat is simply too fast! If that storm could set up like that on Saturday night, we could do something. That's why it was a colder storm on the last run, it came in about 18-24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Tonights ECM @ 168 hrs out...Looks a bit on the warm side at least at this hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Big PNA ridge on both models. All the models still show a storm next weekend. Details should be ironed out as we move closer. Euro and GFS unleashes really cold air in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Big PNA ridge on both models. All the models still show a storm next weekend. Details should be ironed out as we move closer. Euro and GFS unleashes really cold air in the long range. Didn't the GFS look headed towards a Miller B? If so, the transfer needs to occur sooner. Nice little storm after that, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Plenty of cold air available. Look at h5......forget about critical thickness..... Is this a serious post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Like others have said, the GFS storm at 168hrs, comes before the +PNA settles in. Where there isn't enough cold air and no blocking. We will still struggle without a -NAO. But there would be more chances after that storm, if the +PNA sticks around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Like others have said, the GFS storm at 168hrs, comes before the +PNA settles in. Where there isn't enough cold air and no blocking. We will still struggle without a -NAO. But there would be more chances after that storm, if the +PNA sticks around. The timing of that +PNA could change. The 168 hour storm is certainly still on the table, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The timing of that +PNA could change. The 168 hour storm is certainly still on the table, IMO. This is very similar to the last moderate PNA spike this past December. Big storm too early, before the cold air settles in, and then we have to see what happens after. In December, it was a transient PNA ridge and by the time another vort dropped in, the PNA ridge progressed east and the flow became too fast to allow for amplification. I suspect this time, something similar will occur. Unless a smaller clipper/swfe drops in around day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The timing of that +PNA could change. The 168 hour storm is certainly still on the table, IMO. Why would it change? If anything, the models have been too fast with pattern changes, at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The euro has an event at 168 but the primary stays west and it remains to warm, regardless it is not a major rainstorm. The euro just shows some showers. Like the GFS the euro has an amped up PNA ridge out west and it tries to pop another storm around 210. This storm on the euro is plenty cold. It has a weak surface reflection and coastal low late next weekend. Gives some snow, nothing major. Still with the magnitude of the PNA out west it is something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Why would it change? If anything, the models have been too fast with pattern changes, at this range. All the models are showing a big pna ridge in the mid ridge. The models might be too fast but you can not say that for sure. The pattern looks like it will turn more favorable for us after next weekend . I would like to see some consistency from the models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 All the models are showing a big pna ridge in the mid ridge. The models might be too fast but you can not say that for sure. The pattern looks like it will turn more favorable for us after next weekend . I would like to see some consistency from the models though. The pattern has ALWAYS looked to turn more favorable in the long range. I think it's time to just embrace what will be an Atlanta-esque winter here in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 All the models are showing a big pna ridge in the mid ridge. The models might be too fast but you can not say that for sure. The pattern looks like it will turn more favorable for us after next weekend . I would like to see some consistency from the models though. Once again, the change is always 7-10 days away...let's look at this upcoming week-a week ago, models had it turning much colder--now we are looking at 40's for the weekend and 50's into the middle of next week-always verifies warmer than what's been modeled a week out....Coldest day in NYC will be Monday at 41 per Upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Once again, the change is always 7-10 days away...let's look at this upcoming week-a week ago, models had it turning much colder--now we are looking at 40's for the weekend and 50's into the middle of next week-always verifies warmer than what's been modeled a week out....Coldest day in NYC will be Monday at 41 per Upton. Yep, just a couple days ago Sunday and Monday were supposed to be in the mid/upper 30s. Now it looks like we just might barely drop below freezing one of those nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The pattern has ALWAYS looked to turn more favorable in the long range. I think it's time to just embrace what will be an Atlanta-esque winter here in NYC. Sweet. College in aTL was sick. Sandals by Feb, pool open in April, girls laying out, sundresses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Sweet. College in aTL was sick. Sandals by Feb, pool open in April, girls laying out, sundresses... DING DING DING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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