tmagan Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Really, really tough synoptic assignment: Find the warm front from these 02Z obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 For those who don't go over to the main forum, Don posted the updated forecast for FEB from the CFSv2. Its very ugly: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29440-medium-range-discussion-winter-2011-12/page__st__735 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 For those who don't go over to the main forum, Don posted the updated forecast for FEB from the CFSv2. Its very ugly: http://www.americanw...2/page__st__735 You forgot to mention the part where the CFS has a -NAO for February 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 For those who don't go over to the main forum, Don posted the updated forecast for FEB from the CFSv2. Its very ugly: http://www.americanw...2/page__st__735 Good news. So you'll have less negative things to post about and we'll see less of you? And when things do turn around you'll be roundly ignored. That would be a good deal......and using Don S? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Good news. So you'll have less negative things to post about and we'll see less of you? And when things do turn around you'll be roundly ignored. That would be a good deal......and using Don S? Really? Truuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuth which is a lot like Cruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Truuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuth which is a lot like Cruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuz Gints all the way. GFS at 144? Victory delivery system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Gints all the way. GFS at 144? Victory delivery system critical thicknesses are too far north, not liking the warm look. Need the northern stream to push further south so the cold air can get into this system its gonna change a 100 times so not gonna reall sweat it. Just happy its still being advertised so strongly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 critical thicknesses are too far north, not liking the warm look. Need the northern stream to push further south so the cold air can get into this system its gonna chance a 100 times so not gonna reall sweat it. Just happy its still being advertised so strongly It'll end up a major snow storm.....pattern is fabulous considering the abuse we've been through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It'll end up a major snow storm.....pattern is fabulous considering the abuse we've been through well. the 00z depiction is a monster storm for the hudson valley, mid sne, on north. confluence just doesnt get a very good push south. Luckily, its far out and can change. Very sloppy with the northern stream vort, euro was much more defined with that and it helped create a colder system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 well. the 00z depiction is a monster storm for the hudson valley, mid sne, on north. confluence just doesnt get a very good push south. Luckily, its far out and can change. Very sloppy with the northern stream vort, euro was much more defined with that and it helped create a colder system. Looks like a nice track for us.. it should be interesting to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 well. the 00z depiction is a monster storm for the hudson valley, mid sne, on north. confluence just doesnt get a very good push south. Luckily, its far out and can change. Very sloppy with the northern stream vort, euro was much more defined with that and it helped create a colder system. Snow for all..looks like a phase of the NS and SS to me Josh.....That PNA is just money. I'm thinking we can bank on that at this point......details details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The Feb 3rd storm is really before the pattern become favorable...it has the good PNA...but its before the cold air really drains so it will be tough to get a big snowstorm for I-95 in that setup...it would have to be a perfect track and be a starting-as-rain-to-wet-snow type deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Snow for all..looks like a phase of the NS and SS to me Josh.....That PNA is just money. I'm thinking we can bank on that at this point......details details yeah the pna showing up is still classic, we just need more northern stream entrenchment. Storm is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It would have to come after that weekend; then a favorable pattern for us would be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 The Feb 3rd storm is really before the pattern become favorable...it has the good PNA...but its before the cold air really drains so it will be tough to get a big snowstorm for I-95 in that setup...it would have to be a perfect track and be a starting-as-rain-to-wet-snow type deals. Yeah...I agree. If we can organize this at H5 we could be okay -- but then again, with the PNA spike and the lack of blocking if it trends too strong it might end up trying to come west and then re-developing. Tough to get snow near the coast but this is not a bad setup for areas just N & W of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The Feb 3rd storm is really before the pattern become favorable...it has the good PNA...but its before the cold air really drains so it will be tough to get a big snowstorm for I-95 in that setup...it would have to be a perfect track and be a starting-as-rain-to-wet-snow type deals. Agree, I think the better potential for the coast comes the following 7-10 days. Fun to look at this point, but the GFS really goes bonkers w/ the PNA ridge. -30c 850s nearing NNE with subzero highs up there, according to the 00z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 yeah the pna showing up is still classic, we just need more northern stream entrenchment. Storm is still there I think we can pop one during the transition, pattern takes hold, bam another one and as the pattern lifts out, if it does..... How's that for science? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 PNA ridge analog would be February 2006 and January 1987 as the two benchmarks for PNA ridging, but we'll see if it will produce a storm like that. I think it's possible, but need some more upstream help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It would probably (the storm that we need) come on the weekend of February 12. Lot of historic snows that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 PNA ridge analog would be February 2006 and January 1987 as the two benchmarks for PNA ridging, but we'll see if it will produce a storm like that. I think it's possible, but need some more upstream help. Those are decent analogs for after the pattern sets in...probably not so good for next weekend. Its a really marginal airmass and you are "waiting" for the cold to get circulated into the storm which is normally bad news for the coast. But the time frame is far out so really no use in getting too specific, but there isn't a lot to suggest that we'd all of the sudden be pretty cold before that potential threat. Its always dangerous to try and forecast snow when you have to wait for the cold air CCB...think back to 1/13-14/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Those are decent analogs for after the pattern sets in...probably not so good for next weekend. Its a really marginal airmass and you are "waiting" for the cold to get circulated into the storm which is normally bad news for the coast. But the time frame is far out so really no use in getting too specific, but there isn't a lot to suggest that we'd all of the sudden be pretty cold before that potential threat. Its always dangerous to try and forecast snow when you have to wait for the cold air CCB...think back to 1/13-14/08. Will, yes the nightmare of January 2008... But yeah, it sure would help if we had some weak Greenland blocking, we all know if we have that; then couple with the PNA, we'd be getting pretty excited for possible KU, but since this is a pacific driven pattern, it probably won't happen. But we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Will, yes the nightmare of January 2008... But yeah, it sure would help if we had some weak Greenland blocking, we all know if we have that; then couple with the PNA, we'd be getting pretty excited for possible KU, but since this is a pacific driven pattern, it probably won't happen. But we shall see. You don't need a perfect Atlantic...but its good to get some cold air into the region first before a system approaches. Its hard to work with an airmass where you start at +1 or +2 at 850 and hope it cools...it can snow like that, but usually the events are small...not the larger 6"+ events that people are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Those are decent analogs for after the pattern sets in...probably not so good for next weekend. Its a really marginal airmass and you are "waiting" for the cold to get circulated into the storm which is normally bad news for the coast. But the time frame is far out so really no use in getting too specific, but there isn't a lot to suggest that we'd all of the sudden be pretty cold before that potential threat. Its always dangerous to try and forecast snow when you have to wait for the cold air CCB...think back to 1/13-14/08. if the GFS is right, yes it would be way too warm around here for snow, while New England gets crushed. But its 180hrs and the euro at 12z had a much colder miller B type of storm. I think everything is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Will, yes the nightmare of January 2008... But yeah, it sure would help if we had some weak Greenland blocking, we all know if we have that; then couple with the PNA, we'd be getting pretty excited for possible KU, but since this is a pacific driven pattern, it probably won't happen. But we shall see. With the high to the north like that and this track, you'd think it could be at least a rain to snow thing. With the confluence diving down, we need it timed right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 With the high to the north like that and this track, you'd think it could be at least a rain to snow thing. With the confluence diving down, we need it timed right. Plenty of cold air available. Look at h5......forget about critical thickness..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Plenty of cold air available. Look at h5......forget about critical thickness..... You probably don't want to forget about that when looking for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You don't need a perfect Atlantic...but its good to get some cold air into the region first before a system approaches. Its hard to work with an airmass where you start at +1 or +2 at 850 and hope it cools...it can snow like that, but usually the events are small...not the larger 6"+ events that people are looking for. In your view, is the Atlantic driven pattern "more" of a factor for us seeing the larger events; I think it sure is; 2009-2010 and last year proved that to me; but there are such exceptions where a excellent Pac can overcome a bad Atlantic, but I would take an ideal Atlantic, you know, for the heck of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It's so far away that I don't think there's any need to over analyze it. We still have a very crappy week to go through and more 50s so the new pattern will still feel light years away. I just hope it actually verifies for once and lasts more than 1-2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You probably don't want to forget about that when looking for snow. Arctic air moving over a snow mass injected into the system the Goofus is showing in early Feb? Not worried lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Arctic air moving over a snow mass injected into the system the Goofus is showing in early Feb? Not worried lol Well not on the 180 threat...its not arctic air yet...but after that it gets a lot colder. That's why the 180 threat is kind of meh right now for the coast...it can work out...the time frame is so far out that it could be a lakes cutter, lol...but it probably won't have a good airmass with it, but who knows, I don't want to speculate too much on one threat that far out. But the pattern behind it looks to have its chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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