blizzardof09 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 dgex still showing miller b and gfs tredned much more amplified at 18z. still a long shot, but as the vort is better sampled, things could easily change. With the way things turned out with this past storms things certainly will change im betting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Since we don't have the snow, at least we have the warmth... the CMC, ECM and UKMET have been showing this since yesterday's 0z runs (1/24 0z) and the NAM/GFS are now catching up, it's likely that sometime around Friday morning places especially near NYC surge to 55+ degrees. Perhaps there could be some thunderstorms involved as well with the heavy precipitation, the low pressure to the north and the surge of warm temperatures. 12z ECM temperatures for Friday show most of the area in the 54-61 degree range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 The 12Z Euro shows another 1/21 like event possible around 168-180 hours with the high to the north, right now its too far north with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 NAM/GFS fail for tomorrow night's storm... it took the NAM until 36 hours out (this run) to solidify the phase, which the rest of the models except for the GFS have already been showing since yesterday morning. Each run has noticeably shifted towards more phasing, and the NAM still has some more room to shift the storm northwest with tomorrow's runs. EDIT: The NAM now has the 60 degree mark: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Anyone ready for some rumbles of thunder Friday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Anyone ready for some rumbles of thunder Friday?? Strong winds are possible along with the potential thunder as well. I haven't seen much mentioned about the wind but with the increased phasing, there's also a stronger wind potential. With the latest NAM run, 925mb winds are near 60 knots on Friday morning, which would result in strong gusts for Friday morning. A strong pressure gradient also develops for Friday afternoon/evening which should keep the windy conditions in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Getting sleet here now. Temp at 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 NAM still has 60's for tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Hey man nice call Warm and Wet or Cold and Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 and we know the nam will verify-warmth always verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Models are running 6-8 degrees high on temps right now. 12z NAM had LGA at 42-43 degrees for now and temp is currently 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Models are running 6-8 degrees high on temps right now. 12z NAM had LGA at 42-43 degrees for now and temp is currently 36. Chilly up this way. REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 100 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012 NYZ052-065-067-261900- HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWBURGH LGT SNOW 34 30 86 NE7 30.13F FOG WCI 28 MONTGOMERY FLURRIES 34 28 79 NE6 30.11F WCI 29 POUGHKEEPSIE LGT SNOW 35 29 78 CALM 30.13F ALBANY CLOUDY 33 27 78 N3 30.14F AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1250 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TIMING OF RAIN SHIELD ON RADAR BRINGS IT INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 18Z...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN 12Z NAM...WHICH ALSO SEEMS TO BE CUTTING OFF PRECIP SHIELD TOO FAR TO THE S. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLING ON ARRIVING PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED TIMING TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION...MODIFYING IT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. STILL APPEARS WILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN LOW LEVELS MAINLY TO THE NW OF NYC...THAT COULD SEE SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT THE START UP THERE. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEFORE THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ARRIVES ISO-SCT -SHSN/-SHRA/IP POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SE 1/2 OF THE CWA. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK HIGHS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR SO AT MOST LOCATIONS...IN LINE WITH 12Z MAV/MET 3-HOURLY AND LAV/HRRR HOURLY TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Euro and GFS agree with a potent northerm stream vort turning into a nasty little miller B next weekend. It looks warm to begin and cools down fast with cold HP nosing in. I like this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Euro and GFS agree with a potent northerm stream vort turning into a nasty little miller B next weekend. It looks warm to begin and cools down fast with cold HP nosing in. I like this setup. Day after tomorrow setup at 210 hours lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Euro and GFS agree with a potent northerm stream vort turning into a nasty little miller B next weekend. It looks warm to begin and cools down fast with cold HP nosing in. I like this setup. If we can get it to dig further S, a la February 10, 2010, then we'd be gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Interesting that all the 12z globals are all showing a potent vort in this same timeframe. Its way out there, but they all agree on this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Sleet here. 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Euro has a nice little system at 186. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Sleet here. 36 i got some snow in there too sleet hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Day after tomorrow setup at 210 hours lol? cold enough for snow, says the euro euro is weenie model now, now if ands or buts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 cold enough for snow, says the euro euro is weenie model now, now if ands or buts That's as nutty a depiction as I've ever seen and yes, Euro is the new model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 What is nutty about it? It looks nice I will say. That's as nutty a depiction as I've ever seen and yes, Euro is the new model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 What is nutty about it? It looks nice I will say. Does this scream major snowstorm to you just looking at where the anomalies are? This was my point earlier in the thread, when I posted the GFS depiction.....looks can be deceiving....that's my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yes it does, but don't we need higher heights up in the straight by Greenland? Does this scream major snowstorm to you just looking at where the anomalies are? This was my point earlier in the thread, when I posted the GFS depiction.....looks can be deceiving....that's my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yes it does, but don't we need higher heights up in the straight by Greenland? You'd like to have them, but we may have to make do without......interesting times coming for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 You'd like to have them, but we may have to make do without......interesting times coming for sure. Imagine if winter comes roaring back . Alot of people already cancelled winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Imagine if winter comes roaring back . Alot of people already cancelled winter lol Well if it does, it's certainly not a surprise if you've been reading all the material on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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