earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 My guess is that interior spots will have the best shot at seeing some frozen on the front end as the BL looks like it will be too warm at the coast. Definitely. But worth noting how the far north and west the NAM is compared to the Gfs and Euro now. The GEFS mean take the surface low off the coast of Ocean City MD. With the H85 and H925mb lows closed south of us, that could be the only way we get snow out of this set up. Highly unlikely that the GEFS will be correct, but interesting nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z GFS says winter returns after the 14th. AMple cold and 2 solid threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This is def interesting. I was expecting some heavy rain/wind and temps in the low to mid 50s a few days ago. Now there's a chance of some frozen precipitation at least at the onset of it. I wonder if the colder trend will continue. I think chance are it will either stop and warm up again but who knows what can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 So far 12z EURO through 66 is a bit colder it would appear at all levels. It has almost a double barrel lp. Looks like primary into OV with secondary development off middle atlantic coast. Large area of confluence to the north which is kept in check by block. Not sure how I feel about this one, lots of times these can produce sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro looks similar to last nights run. A bit of front end frozen stuff over the interior but rain elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 From 66 on is a big fail. The primary low remains dominant allowing a lot of WAA ahead of it and into our area. Also as a result it tugs the secondary back west and hugs the coast keeping us warmer as opposed to letting the lp slip out to sea. Still a battle with the large confluence. Overall nothing of significance this run. Once again, these setups can often produce mix bags for the area where the cold/warm battle occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro looks similar to last nights run. A bit of front end frozen stuff over the interior but rain elsewhere. How far inland are you referring to as 'interior'? Putnam? Dutchess? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro looks similar to last nights run. A bit of front end frozen stuff over the interior but rain elsewhere. track has come NW. Its def. warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Interesting trend to a colder storm on the models for Wednesday night-Thursday... This set up doesn't look like it will work for NYC, with temperatures a bit too warm, but the storm could start out as a mix for places like NW NJ and SE NY with 850mb/925mb temps cold enough at the start of the storm before a changeover to rain. New England should see the most out of this with a longer lasting snow/wintry mix. For the longer range, the models still appear to be developing a gradient-like pattern starting around next week. It's still very possible that we don't see much snow as the pattern doesn't completely appear to flip, but if these improvements in the pattern are correct, I'm starting to think that our first snow chance that's more than isolated flurries could be perhaps in the 1/18-1/25 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Definitely. But worth noting how the far north and west the NAM is compared to the Gfs and Euro now. The GEFS mean take the surface low off the coast of Ocean City MD. With the H85 and H925mb lows closed south of us, that could be the only way we get snow out of this set up. Highly unlikely that the GEFS will be correct, but interesting nevertheless. Those 850mb and 925mb lows are closed to the south of us as well, on the GFS. But the low over the Lakes, is keeping a southerly or easterly component to winds, at those levels. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Those 850mb and 925mb lows are closed to the south of us as well, on the GFS. But the low over the Lakes, is keeping a southerly or easterly component to winds, at those levels. . Definitely. I was surprised to see the GFS ensemble mean be so much farther south and colder than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Definitely. I was surprised to see the GFS ensemble mean be so much farther south and colder than the operational. Crappy resolution I would imagine is a big reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The NAM has the surface low more north and closer to coast then any model. NAM @ 69hrs probably has the accuracy of the GFS @ 180hrs The warmer solutions have been winning out this year with the ridging ahead of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's quite close @ DXR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 The NAM is still very far north and west. Brings the surface low directly over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The NAM is still very far north and west. Brings the surface low directly over NYC. are we in northeast quadrant at landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The NAM is still very far north and west. Brings the surface low directly over NYC. Also it is 3 hours faster this run compared to the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 SREFs appear to have trended colder over the past few runs. 15z includes several members that bring wintry precip just north of the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The NAM is still very far north and west. Brings the surface low directly over NYC. 18z NAM now gives areas in the far NW a front end snow.. 1-2"? Could also be a product of precip moving in 6 hrs faster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z GFS members have alot of decent hits for the interior http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf072.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 There could be some really strong winds as the Arctic front moves through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GFS around 130 hours is extremely interesting. That has the potential to be something big if it plays out like the OP 18z GFS suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 wow the gfs and dgex just went batty. Best looking maps of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 You can see the 500mb gradient developing on the models now. There is no PNA ridge for amplification at the time of the storm itself, but that may actually work in our favor for some overrunning type precipitation. Also, the shortwave that moves east on the GFS actually dives south inside 84 hours, crossing the International Border in Oregon at 78 hrs. The shortwaves are modeled to be quite potent ejecting out of Canada. Also notice the confluent energy to the north which is pretty important in this general setup. Pretty big jump here on the operational models to some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GFS around 130 hours is extremely interesting. That has the potential to be something big if it plays out like the OP 18z GFS suggests. At 144 it looks VERY much like 96 at 13z on the 7th. (Surface) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Without a PNA ridge, that shortwave diving down into the northern Great Lakes might act as a kicker instead of something that would help amplify the pattern. But with that gradient, overrunning potential is certainly there. And the confluence to the northeast is nice. We don't have a true -NAO, but if that confluence is real, we don't need one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Important to be very careful here, though, as each piece of guidance is still handling these shortwaves differently. The Euro was slower with this shortwave, and ejected it farther east into a fast flow...with little amplification. Def. something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At 144 it looks VERY much like 96 at 13z on the 7th. (Surface) 1996 H5 featured a more meridional pattern overall, with a strong PNA ridge up through south central Canada, and a deep/amplified short wave with a ton of vorticity in the East. Closed off at h5. If you were going to make a comparison to a major storm, President's day 2003 looks much closer IMO. Much flatter ridge out West, short wave nowhere near as dynamic, and precip primarily due to overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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