CooL Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 i think people have their storms mixed up..I thought the one on sat. has no shot at delivering? and we were watching the wave after that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 i think people have their storms mixed up..I thought the one on sat. has no shot at delivering? and we were watching the wave after that one. most of us are, but the weenies got all excited cuz the gfs came up with a BS solution that even its ensembles dont agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 i think people have their storms mixed up..I thought the one on sat. has no shot at delivering? and we were watching the wave after that one. It's because the models keep changing their solutions. The Friday storm has become Saturday storm on the 12z GFS again, because the cut-off low ejects out the the SW slower, and misses the first phase on Friday. But then tries phase again s/w trough digging into Great Lakes on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 12z GFS ensemble individual members seem to be on the same page as the operational as far as timing of the ejecting shortwave http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/f102.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 12z GFS ensemble individual members seem to be on the same page as the operational as far as timing of the ejecting shortwave http://www.meteo.psu...NE_12z/f102.gif The 12z GGEM and UKMET don't agree though. They have cut-off coming out early and phasing with the s/w trough on Friday. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_12z/ukloop.html http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Negative 500 anomolies continue to center themselves further south into the lakes and ohio valley on each run. This is a good sign IMHO, regardless of what the surface maps are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 euro agrees with cmc and ukmo, gets all the energy, the southern vort, northern steam stuff out of here by 84 hours. The next storm. the one ag3 myself and others have been discussion, enters the picture after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 lots of energy dropping into the midwest, its just a matter if we can get enough sharpnesses and digging for something to pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 euro is def. more amplified, but as CooL says, not sure we will do it this run but again, we are moving closer to a stormy solution, not away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 if we could keep the PNA ridge just a few frames longer, we could do it. As it stands, not happening this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Is the euro showing rain for the poconos this weekend? I have a house up there for te weekend to get some snowboarding in. Trying to see what to expect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 The 12z GGEM and UKMET don't agree though. They have cut-off coming out early and phasing with the s/w trough on Friday. http://www.meteo.psu...12z/ukloop.html http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Yeah the Euro doesn't either. Probably better that way since it's highly unlikely we get any frozen precipitation out of that set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 UKMO is out on ewall now long range. Helps to loop it. I def. think that thing has its act together when its passing by. Yeah, its in and out, but to see it that strong over the gulf of maine has to mean its more than a strung out POS when it goes east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Thanks for the update. Yes, I probably went a little crazy with my original post, but who knows, the UMKET definitely looks interesting to say the least. UKMO is out on ewall now long range. Helps to loop it. I def. think that thing has its act together when its passing by. Yeah, its in and out, but to see it that strong over the gulf of maine has to mean its more than a strung out POS when it goes east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The whole set up seems a bit confusing with which storm develops how much, although IMO, we're looking at a big Thursday night/Friday storm and a smaller Sunday storm. The trend on the models has been to phase the cutoff low on Thursday night, resulting in a larger storm, either cutting through the NW parts of the Northeast or further southeast, but still resulting in a warmer solution. The positive to this is that colder air comes in behind that storm and when the next trough comes through on Sunday, there is already some cold air in place. There's not a lot of cold air, but more than what we would've had if the storm came through on Saturday instead. If the cutoff does phase on Thursday night, the Sunday storm has a risk of going too far east, while bringing scattered snow showers to the area, although if it was to be on Saturday, the risk is that it could easily cut to the west of the area and/or end up too warm. The 12z UKMET intensifies Sunday's storm much more, although from what it looks like on the hour 120 and 144 maps, it appears that it develops a bit too late and is too close to the coast. Its scenario is probably too extreme, but it does show that Sunday holds some potential, not a lot of it but that the possibility for something slightly more interesting exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 UKMET loves to go to extremes beyond 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Holy block on the gfs batman at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Holy block on the gfs batman at the end of the run hows the storm after the first looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 hows the storm after the first looking? Way OTS and warm regardless. The next timeframe to watch is Superbowl weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Way OTS and warm regardless. The next timeframe to watch is Superbowl weekend. 2013 superbowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 2013 superbowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 GFS for Super Bowl weekend; cutoff low, sfc low cranks... a long way out, but that is the one to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Still seeing the storm show up on various ensembles, a good sign. The potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The GGEM is so close to phasing the Sunday storm. It has a 1014 low pressure just along the coast. It deepens when it's offshore near New England. It throws back some moisture on the coast. Cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Trials, were literally like hours away as far as timing to have this storm become signifigant/major for the northeast its getting there not quite there yet though but you gotta be excited about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Trials, were literally like hours away as far as timing to have this storm become signifigant/major for the northeast its getting there not quite there yet though but you gotta be excited about it I wouldn't get too excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I wouldn't get too excited... Agreed. It's low probability but not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 It seems like the nws changes their forecast with each model run....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 dgex still showing miller b and gfs tredned much more amplified at 18z. still a long shot, but as the vort is better sampled, things could easily change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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