Mid January Discussion

[Nikolai]

I think we may be waiting a bit...but looking at the next threat by the first weekend of February...maybe lagging into the first week of the month around Feb 5-6. Global ensembles are trying to hint at the synoptic setup which could be favorable for something in this time frame as well. Obviously at this range...things are muted...given the variance of the ensemble guidance and the general uncertainty of the pattern. Yet...seeing high latitude ridging (and we're talking heights, this time...not height anomalies) on the ensemble means is encouraging. But such an event would fit well into the mold of the stratospheric warming lag...with the warming event that shot up to well above normal values even at 70 hpa a few weeks ago.

In an ideal situation the upper level low in the sea of japan would teleconnect with a ridge axis on the west coast (we'll see if the big time alaskan vortex has something to say about that) ...and the ridge axis could roll near Boise....in sync with the higher latitude ridging extending from the N Atlantic towards Baffin Island.

We'll see...plenty of things could go wrong between now and then. Just a thought...eyeballing the pattern down the road. The GEFS kinda play to this as well...if you want a treat, loop through the 00z GEFS height anomalies through around 324 (I know, i know..) and it plays out pretty nicely by that point.

we are gonna be waiting more than a bit... this past storm was a fluke, enjoy the warm weather!

[Nikolai]

at this point i'm ready for spring... february snow is only ok if the rest of the winter has been snowy, otherwise it feels sad and wet... it might as well be in the 70s already, oveeeeeeeeer it!

[mattinpa]

at this point i'm ready for spring... february snow is only ok if the rest of the winter has been snowy, otherwise it feels sad and wet... it might as well be in the 70s already, oveeeeeeeeer it!

I couldn't disagree more. I think the models are hinting at cold and storminess, and Feb. snow is fine with me.

[atownwxwatcher]

I couldn't disagree more. I think the models are hinting at cold and storminess, and Feb. snow is fine with me.

Other then a transient cold shot at 120-144 hrs with some cold air still at 168 hrs (but moderating)

This does not look like a cold pattern to me in the beginning of february..

[NEXtreme]

Models most likely don't have a clue pass 4 days. 5 days prior to this past weekend, models were showing rain Saturday with temps in the upper 40's and 50's Sunday. Instead it snowed with temps in the upper teens to low 20's. And around 30 late Sunday. And what happened to the major torch for this week that models were showing 10 days ago? Lmao...don't take anything seriesly at 5 + days.

[NaoPos]

Other then a transient cold shot at 120-144 hrs with some cold air still at 168 hrs (but moderating)

This does not look like a cold pattern to me in the beginning of february..

Given the models blew the torch forecasts, I'd take it with a grain of salt. It's possible, but not definite.

[TheTrials]

i actually think the 120 to 144 time frame is much improved at 00z and 6z. Note how the vort has trended stronger and digs further south. Positive height anomolies still showing up near the strait so even if the blocking is not over greenland,we have a good block in a good spot. Also notice the bullseye anomoloy showing up over the rockies, the ridge is strong and its good this setup has improved over the past day.

[ag3]

Timeframe of day 5-6 has improved on overnight models.

All models were not far off.

Plenty of cold around as well.

[Weathergun]

i actually think the 120 to 144 time frame is much improved at 00z and 6z. Note how the vort has trended stronger and digs further south. Positive height anomolies still showing up near the strait so even if the blocking is not over greenland,we have a good block in a good spot. Also notice the bullseye anomoloy showing up over the rockies, the ridge is strong and its good this setup has improved over the past day.

This could still wind being too progressive, if we don't have a 50/50 low or the +PNA ridge connecting to the block west of Baffin Island. That block doesn't even register as -NAO on the charts.

[TheTrials]

This could still wind being too progressive, if we don't have a 50/50 low or the +PNA ridge connecting to the block west of Baffin Island. That block doesn't even register as -NAO on the charts.

Breaking this down, i agree, could be too progressive, but because of the pna, not because of the lack of a 50/50. The 50/50's main job is to keep HP's from sliding east because the 50/50 is blocked in and this the HP is blocked in. We don't need that here, we have a cold flow. And its norther stream dominant. This is going to be a Miller B if it happens.

And its meaningless to me and the final result whether the height anomolies over and west of the strait register as a -NAO, because that is a block that works for east coast snow. Remember, the 540 dm block from halloween didn't register as a -NAO.

[Isotherm]

This could still wind being too progressive, if we don't have a 50/50 low or the +PNA ridge connecting to the block west of Baffin Island. That block doesn't even register as -NAO on the charts.

Agree, I wouldn't be surprised if we get nothing in the next couple weeks. The PNA ridge although present is still rather low amplitude, and the NAO regions are less than desirable. Overall it's a better regime than we've seen, so maybe we can pull something off.

[Weathergun]

Breaking this down, i agree, could be too progressive, but because of the pna, not because of the lack of a 50/50. The 50/50's main job is to keep HP's from sliding east because the 50/50 is blocked in and this the HP is blocked in. We don't need that here, we have a cold flow. And its norther stream dominant. This is going to be a Miller B if it happens.

And its meaningless to me and the final result whether the height anomolies over and west of the strait register as a -NAO, because that is a block that works for east coast snow. Remember, the 540 dm block from halloween didn't register as a -NAO.

We are looking for more amplfication or phasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A good +PNA, like I suggested OR a -NAO & 50/50 low setup, would make that much more likely to happen.

[ag3]

We are looking for more amplfication or phasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A good +PNA, like I suggested OR a -NAO & 50/50 low setup, would make that much more likely to happen.

For a big storm, yes.

But that setup would allow for an overrunning type of event or a Miller B smaller event.

[Isotherm]

On the one hand it's the same garbage we've seen all winter, with a massive low height field across AK and a small PNA ridge underneath. But the major improvement is the demise of the strong +AO, with at least an ok north atlantic, not wretched. Those improvements should be able to buy us at least a light event in the next couple weeks but we'll see.

[IsentropicLift]

If the 6z NAM is correct, 60's will be possible in NJ on Friday

[PB GFI]

I Think the generated numbers this weekend will get beaten badly compliments of the source region - The depth of this weekends trough doesnt fully phase however I find it hard to believe something minimal doesnt materialize . In the Longer term with the AO negative look for troughs to deepen in the east more than the models see . I read a lot of " TORCH" comments here in the last 2 weeks for this week . 2 days of 50is more welcomed the 60 and 70`s PREDICTED . That being said the troughs maybe progressive as its hard to slow this pattern down with A NUET TO POS NAO . So big time phasing will be hard to come by. However Low cold air will be your friend and when the troughs lift out you will get flat open open waves that will lead to Snow . WINTER IS NOT OVER !

[Weathergun]

For a big storm, yes.

But that setup would allow for an overrunning type of event or a Miller B smaller event.

The problem is the antencedent airmass, particuarly the boundary layer, warms up. We are going need more phasing, to draw more colder air in, to avoid issues mixing and accumulation.

[ag3]

The problem is the antencedent airmass, particuarly the boundary layer, warms up. We are going need more phasing, to draw more colder air in, to avoid issues mixing and accumulation.

I think we're talking about 2 different events.

The one I'm looking at is the day 5-7 period. Plenty of cold air for that one.

[TheTrials]

The problem is the antencedent airmass, particuarly the boundary layer, warms up. We are going need more phasing, to draw more colder air in, to avoid issues mixing and accumulation.

not true at all. The airmass is plenty cold for a miller B setup with temps barely cracking 30 even to the coastal plain and 850's plenty cold too.

[TheTrials]

I think we're talking about 2 different events.

The one I'm looking at is the day 5-7 period. Plenty of cold air for that one.

this.

[Weathergun]

I think we're talking about 2 different events.

The one I'm looking at is the day 5-7 period. Plenty of cold air for that one.

I'm talking about one storm threat for this weekend, Trials posted about with the 6z GEFS.

[MJO812]

I'm talking about one storm threat for this weekend, Trials posted about with the 6z GEFS.

The Saturday storms looks like rain. It's the one after that storm that looks really interesting.

[TheTrials]

I'm talking about one storm threat for this weekend, Trials posted about with the 6z GEFS.

My storm is Sunday into maybe the Tuesday time frame depending on timing and is plenty cold.

The big thing this morning is that it has absolutely trended more amplified over the last day or so. In fact, 6z gfs now has a closed 500 low on the canadian border. The key here is to get that to push further south into the states with either a better PNA ridge and/or or a possible phase with some southern energy that is scooting across the country.

I feel the setup over the strait is more than sufficient for east coast snow.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z NAM has backed off on the torch for Friday, looks more like 00z. The QPF axis also shifted about 100 miles SE.

[TheTrials]

loop the gefs and watch P004. This is what we are looking for.

[Weathergun]

The Saturday storms looks like rain. It's the one after that storm that looks really interesting.

That storm is on Friday. I'm talking the one models show between 120-144hrs. Nothing before or after that.

[TheTrials]

I didn't even see this, but the first wave around 96 hours does actually move close to a 50/50 position for those who are looking for that.

[blizzardof09]

I didn't even see this, but the first wave around 96 hours does actually move close to a 50/50 position for those who are looking for that.

The 50/50 position would give the second storm a chance for us then. Thats a good thing

[Weathergun]

I didn't even see this, but the first wave around 96 hours does actually move close to a 50/50 position for those who are looking for that.

The 50/50 position would give the second storm a chance for us then. Thats a good thing

Yes, the only problem is that we don't have ridge over Greenland to keep it there. So we still threading the needle with this.

[TheTrials]

Yes, the only problem is that we don't have ridge over Greenland to keep it there. So we still threading the needle with this.

You have this a little askew IMHO. First you said we didn't have one, now we do and it still isn't good?

First of all, we have a davis strait block. This should force the vort into the trough to help amplify the flow and keep the storm from cutting. That's step one.

Second, we have deep fresh cold air related to the PNA ridge and finally a relaxaton of the +++++AO.

Third, the 50/50's main job is to keep the HP in place long enough to keep it from scooting east and torching the coastal plain prior to the storms approach. In this situation, we aren't worried about this since this is a miller b setup, at least right now, and we have a cold flow across the north east. Even still, we do have something crossing the 50/50 area. Also, you want the 50/50 low to move out so the new storm can approach and not get shoved out to sea. Most of our great storms are with west based retrograding blocks that allow the 50/50 lows to move out and the new storms to move in.