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Mid January Discussion


earthlight

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I took preemptive measures and piled the snow into a 6 ft pile which is half way melted down I wasted all that time clearing my lawn to save snow and I'll prolly lose it all :(

well, hey, at least you tried.. not much you can really do with this kind of warmth.. not to mention, tomorrow looks like it's gonna be 15 degrees above normal too.

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interesting.. are you over in Nyack now? that's a fairly high elevation.. I'm sitting at about 285 feet or so in Nanuet.

Im on the border of Nyack and Valley Cottage, condo complex at the top of the hill behind Nyack High school (up the hill from the nyack mcdonalds)

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Im on the border of Nyack and Valley Cottage, condo complex at the top of the hill behind Nyack High school (up the hill from the nyack mcdonalds)

ah ok.. i think I have an idea.. i used to like to play tennis at NHS because they got the lights over there.. so this is somewhere off of Christian Herald road, right?

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ah ok.. i think I have an idea.. i used to like to play tennis at NHS because they got the lights over there.. so this is somewhere off of Christian Herald road, right?

If you go up christian herald from the HS, make the left onto Mountainview Ave, up off of that.

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well, hey, at least you tried.. not much you can really do with this kind of warmth.. not to mention, tomorrow looks like it's gonna be 15 degrees above normal too.

I just had a idea I'm going to make about 5 softball sized snowballs and store them in my freezer and I will keep them till summer when they are iceballs and I'm like what was I thinking when I put them in there

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Euro Weeklies from Coastalwx

Looking at the weeklies, it seems like the +PNA may be for real. They have a decent +PNA and even -NAO at that point..although I think the -NAO is more shaky, based on late behavior. Week 4 has an overall -AO look with higher heights across the North Pole. Also ridging into AK. Not very cold verbatim for these parts, but that upper level would probably be ok for these parts.
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I measured 2.8 inches here in the Morganville section of Marlboro, so 2.5 seems reasonable in Colts Neck. There were 2 relatively heavier snow bands towards the end of the storm that set up just to my NW and SE, so I can see why most other locals in Monmouth measured more than 3 inches. Then again, the highest official report for Monmouth was 2.9 inches, which came out of your hometown. In any event, we're only talking about tenths of inches here anyway. ;)

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...

FREEHOLD 2.9 121 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

HOLMDEL 2.5 130 PM 1/21 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CREAM RIDGE 2.4 934 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

NEPTUNE TWP 1.5 900 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

OCEAN TWP 1.5 128 PM 1/21 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

True but there were two Cocorhas reports of 3 + in northern Monmouth, 3.5 Redbank was the highest I saw. Those were not added to NWS public info the day of storm.

1/22/2012   7:00 AM   NJ-MN-6   Red Bank 1.3 NW  0.28 1.3 3.5 NJ Monmouth  

1/22/2012   7:00 AM   NJ-MN-15   Holmdel Twp 0.7 E  0.28 1.2 3.0 NJ Monmouth  

1/22/2012   7:00 AM   NJ-MN-16   Freehold Twp 1.0 WNW  0.31 0.5 2.0 NJ Monmouth  

1/22/2012   7:00 AM   NJ-MN-17   Howell Twp 2.5 W  0.25 0.3 2.0 NJ Monmouth  

1/22/2012   7:00 AM   NJ-MN-51   Rumson 0.5 NE  0.40 0.5 NA NJ Monmouth  

1/22/2012   7:00 AM   NJ-MN-55   Freehold 0.7 SSW  0.01 0.1 2.5 NJ Monmouth  

1/22/2012   8:00 AM   NJ-MN-10   Eatontown 1.2 NE  0.25 NA 2.3 NJ Monmouth  

1/22/2012   8:00 AM   NJ-MN-48   Long Branch 0.5 W  0.27 0.8 2.4 NJ Monmouth  

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True but there were numerous Cocorhas reports of 3 + in northern Monmouth, 3.5 was the highest I saw. Those were not added to NWS public info the day of storm.

Just saw your post now. Yeah, ONJSC site has the hgihest report at 3.8" in Red Bank, then a 3.7" in Holmdel for the second highest (one of the reports). I'm in SE PA now, but my parents measured 3" in Colts Neck. Sad to say it's the biggest event of the winter thus far.

Right now my total here in Villanova of 7" is ahead of home by a couple inches for the season,

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Euro Weeklies from Coastalwx

Makes sense; I think the weakly positive PNA is a fairly high confidence forecast at this point, given its tendencies throughout this winter. The AO already in its negative state lends credence to the idea of a continued weak -AO. The most questionable aspect going forward is definitely the NAO, which I'd err on the side of caution, and lean neutral to slightly positive for the time being (any blocks being transient in nature). That type of pattern, with a bit of blocking, and low amplitude western ridges can be a seasonable one but not very cold. However, seasonable temps are really all we need at this time of year.

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Just saw your post now. Yeah, ONJSC site has the hgihest report at 3.8" in Red Bank, then a 3.7" in Holmdel for the second highest (one of the reports). I'm in SE PA now, but my parents measured 3" in Colts Neck. Sad to say it's the biggest event of the winter thus far.

Right now my total here in Villanova of 7" is ahead of home by a couple inches for the season,

Ha yes, I actually had more in October, I can only laugh if that one tops the list. Anyway I do believe we have decent shot at another 3 to 6" event beginning next week. Think we could see some at least minor blocking in Feb and perhaps even March due to lag effect from the minor SWE discussed a few weeks ago. Also can't rule out a PNA drivin slightly -AO March 2009 style event as well.

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Ha yes, I actually had more in October, I can only laugh if that one tops the list. Anyway I do believe we have decent shot at another 3 to 6" event beginning next week. Think we could see some at least minor blocking in Feb and perhaps even March due to lag effect from the minor SWE discussed a few weeks ago. Also can't rule out a PNA drivin slightly -AO March 2009 style event as well.

I agree. Would be surprised if the October 3-4" event is our biggest of the season. I don't like ruling out the 12"+ potential either, because it remains to be seen if March turns blocky across the nern latitudes.

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One of our problems is the flattening of the PNA ridge out west on the GFS, and I'd like to see a more meridional orientation to that ridge in order to dig the s/w further south ala the Euro solution from a couple runs ago (had the vort max running through TN near GA while the 00z GFS has it through the mid atlantic).

A barely detectable PNA ridge isn't going to help the northern stream energy out much in an already progressive pattern. The northern s/w is pretty potent but it needs more trough amplification to slow down and tilt negative so as to pull the sfc low close to the eastern seaboard. The GFS as it stands now is not very optimistic looking. I've drawn on the H5 map for Sunday what I'd want to see change with this synoptic set up

nlu83c.jpg

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The Euro is really trying at 126...but the general setup surrounding the system is pretty bad. If the modeling is correct with their general depiction of the pattern, it would surprise me if that storm really produced anything notable.

yeah, we've seen this a couple times already this winter. We know where this is going, cold and dry

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I think we may be waiting a bit...but looking at the next threat by the first weekend of February...maybe lagging into the first week of the month around Feb 5-6. Global ensembles are trying to hint at the synoptic setup which could be favorable for something in this time frame as well. Obviously at this range...things are muted...given the variance of the ensemble guidance and the general uncertainty of the pattern. Yet...seeing high latitude ridging (and we're talking heights, this time...not height anomalies) on the ensemble means is encouraging. But such an event would fit well into the mold of the stratospheric warming lag...with the warming event that shot up to well above normal values even at 70 hpa a few weeks ago.

In an ideal situation the upper level low in the sea of japan would teleconnect with a ridge axis on the west coast (we'll see if the big time alaskan vortex has something to say about that) ...and the ridge axis could roll near Boise....in sync with the higher latitude ridging extending from the N Atlantic towards Baffin Island.

We'll see...plenty of things could go wrong between now and then. Just a thought...eyeballing the pattern down the road. The GEFS kinda play to this as well...if you want a treat, loop through the 00z GEFS height anomalies through around 324 (I know, i know..) and it plays out pretty nicely by that point.

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