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Mid January Discussion


earthlight

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Temps still rising even with rain, now 50 at LGA and 49 at Central Park:

000

SXUS51 KOKX 232157

OSOOKX

NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN WEATHER ROUNDUP

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

500 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CENTRAL PARK HVY RAIN 49 48 97 SE7 30.03F VSB 3/4

LAGUARDIA APRT RAIN 50 47 89 S12 30.01F FOG

KENNEDY INTL LGT RAIN 51 48 89 S21 30.03S FOG

NEWARK/LIBERTY RAIN 50 49 96 S6 30.00S FOG

TETERBORO APRT RAIN 41 40 96 SE5 29.99F VSB 3/4

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On the 18z GFS (like the 12z), the southern stream doesn't have the right timing or placement on the upstream flank of the longwave trof and northern stream energy to phase, amplify and/or bring a low center up the coast. On the GFS charts I would look for a threat towards day 6/7.

But there are still enough ingredients to keep the chance of snow alive around day 4/5, maybe even as soon as day 3 with some light overrunning.

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Noticed a 10 degree temp jump in about 1 mile as I was driving home from work, temp 42 with thick fog and ground snow covered in Plainsboro NJ then suddenly the dense fog broke with no snow on the ground and my car temp jump up to 52 all in about one mile. Pretty weird to see the fog snow temp inversion dissaper so quickly.

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Noticed a 10 degree temp jump in about 1 mile as I was driving home from work, temp 42 with thick fog and ground snow covered in Plainsboro NJ then suddenly the dense fog broke with no snow on the ground and my car temp jump up to 52 all in about one mile. Pretty weird to see the fog snow temp inversion dissaper so quickly.

Cool contrast.

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Cool contrast.

That contrast shifted slightly to the west, the temperature jumped from about 40 to 47 degrees here between 5-6 PM and is still increasing, and the grass is starting to come out of the snow in many spots.

The temperatures at 5 PM and 7 PM show how the contrast slightly shifted from NYC to Bergen County:

post-1753-0-98370400-1327366814.gif

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That contrast shifted slightly to the west, the temperature jumped from about 40 to 47 degrees here between 5-6 PM and is still increasing, and the grass is starting to come out of the snow in many spots.

The temperatures at 5 PM and 7 PM show how the contrast slightly shifted from NYC to Bergen County:

post-1753-0-98370400-1327366814.gif

Nice. The fog is getting dense here and I am up 49. What little snow that we had on the ground melted

pretty quickly by early in the afternoon.

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damn...what weve been looking for all winter!

yup..the thing is though as earthlight has talked about before is that these PNA ridges are just getting beat down continuously on the models. If we can get something sustained out west working with a euro block we'd get something up the coast

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That contrast shifted slightly to the west, the temperature jumped from about 40 to 47 degrees here between 5-6 PM and is still increasing, and the grass is starting to come out of the snow in many spots.

The temperatures at 5 PM and 7 PM show how the contrast slightly shifted from NYC to Bergen County:

post-1753-0-98370400-1327366814.gif

Very cool graphic, clearly shows the sudden temp jump at the time I experienced it. The 38 to 52 between Somerset and middlesex Co's.

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The PNA ridging is a very important feature in nearly all of our snowstorms. I think if we looked back at history, we'd find that some of our significant events lack NAO blocking but not PNA ridging. Not a coincidence that NYC has rarely if ever seen a 33"+ winter with a -PNA dominant.

Hi Tom, was in your NJ neck of the woods last night off Montrose and there clearly was more than 3" of accumulation area wide. Was at giants party and couldn't help to notice, my hand measurement, I estimate was 3.5". It was clearly more than the 2.5 - 3" that remained in freehold. Wanted post this because your 2.5 for colts neck might be a bet lean if your near Montrose Harmoniny hill golf course.

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Hi Tom, was in your NJ neck of the woods last night off Montrose and there clearly was more than 3" of accumulation area wide. Was at giants party and couldn't help to notice, my hand measurement, I estimate was 3.5". It was clearly more than the 2.5 - 3" that remained in freehold. Wanted post this because your 2.5 for colts neck might be a bet lean if your near Montrose Harmoniny hill golf course.

I measured 2.8 inches here in the Morganville section of Marlboro, so 2.5 seems reasonable in Colts Neck. There were 2 relatively heavier snow bands towards the end of the storm that set up just to my NW and SE, so I can see why most other locals in Monmouth measured more than 3 inches. Then again, the highest official report for Monmouth was 2.9 inches, which came out of your hometown. In any event, we're only talking about tenths of inches here anyway. ;)

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...

FREEHOLD 2.9 121 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

HOLMDEL 2.5 130 PM 1/21 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CREAM RIDGE 2.4 934 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

NEPTUNE TWP 1.5 900 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

OCEAN TWP 1.5 128 PM 1/21 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

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ok a bit further than i thought.. definitely big contrasts in temps with cold air getting trapped in places.. pretty neat to see. i'm glad the warm air was able to rush in.. it feels nice

That is a crazy temp contrast though.  Snow pack holding on here.Actually my temp has jumped to 44 in the last hour!

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ok a bit further than i thought.. definitely big contrasts in temps with cold air getting trapped in places.. pretty neat to see. i'm glad the warm air was able to rush in.. it feels nice

its amazing, cold air just wont budge yet, i bet the higher elevation area of my town is in the mid 40s

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mine is melting real fast... starting to get bare patches of grass already.. hard to believe after the glaze of ice this morning

Im at about 510 feet or so....most of my snow is gone. Down at my parents house at about 100 feet, as of about an hour ago, they still had 2 inch snowcover everywhere.

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mine is melting real fast... starting to get bare patches of grass already.. hard to believe after the glaze of ice this morning

I took preemptive measures and piled the snow into a 6 ft pile which is half way melted down I wasted all that time clearing my lawn to save snow and I'll prolly lose it all :(

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