PB GFI Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Woof pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Lot of amplification involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Ugly vortex over AK with transient ridging to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 dude, not rare at all. Its a NE wind off the sound. We had winter stroms in the past where a NE wind off the sound would make LGA warmer than everyone else, including JFK. 11 degree spread over such a short distance in the winter is impressive, nothing impresses you eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 earthlight, can you change the thread title? i mean, talk about bad joo joo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Ugly vortex over AK with transient ridging to our NE. and there is your problem, you don't know where to look, so you are looking to the anomolies to the north and east and ignore the nice block just over and west of the strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Ugly vortex over AK with transient ridging to our NE. ugly ? I wana cuddle with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Thats cross polar flow ,that low level cold air busts numbers everytime . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 How correct have the GFS ensembles been this winter season? If they were we would have been shivering in November and December! ZERO trust in the GFS ensembles or the GFS for that matter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Ugly vortex over AK with transient ridging to our NE. Yeah we def. aren't getting the PNA spike at the right time. That would be my concern with this system. It's hard to explain but when you loop through the 500mb height field on the guidance you can see it. The ridge on the west coast allows the pattern to buckle enough to get the mean trough towards the Central and Eastern US -- so that is a success. But it's so short lived, that by the time things get going..it is collapsing and the trough is able to kick east. You can compare the two images below to see it. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f120.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f150.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 The small + height anomaly over Baffin Island is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Bloody Brilliant trough. It is nice and would likely bring a nice shot of arctic air. But check out the individual ensembles -- none of them are remotely interesting. The first shortwave (the cutoff that ejects east) swings through just ahead of the "big" trough amplification...so it sweeps the baroclinic zone offshore...and we get nothing. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 It is nice and would likely bring a nice shot of arctic air. But check out the individual ensembles -- none of them are remotely interesting. The first shortwave (the cutoff that ejects east) swings through just ahead of the "big" trough amplification...so it sweeps the baroclinic zone offshore...and we get nothing. http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html The canadian is in the phase camp - and the Euro isnt far behind . Cold and dry is as possible as the phase scenerio . I dont bite yet either but im goin to sleep on this one yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 The canadian is in the phase camp - and the Euro isnt far behind . Cold and dry is as possible as the phase scenerio . I dont bite yet either but im goin to sleep on this one yet The vast majority of the GEFS individual members look closer to the Canadian and other amplified models at 126 hours. It wouldn't surprise me to see the operational go that way as well. Unfortunately the cold air source stinks...the guidance lost the piece of confluence which they were keying in on yesterday. The way it is now, it's generally cold and dry...or warm and wet. If the storm comes back close to the coast, we'll likely be dealing with a cold rain away from the elevations..unless something changes in the upper air pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Big phased systems have no shot this year. Im looking for the day 7-9 period for a small clipper or swfe again. All models are hinting at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The vast majority of the GEFS individual members look closer to the Canadian and other amplified models at 126 hours. It wouldn't surprise me to see the operational go that way as well. Unfortunately the cold air source stinks...the guidance lost the piece of confluence which they were keying in on yesterday. The way it is now, it's generally cold and dry...or warm and wet. If the storm comes back close to the coast, we'll likely be dealing with a cold rain away from the elevations..unless something changes in the upper air pattern. hurtful but true . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 11 degree spread over such a short distance in the winter is impressive, nothing impresses you eh? Its not impressive at all, its just a local sea breeze. That spread can be 30 degrees in the Spring with 35 mph winds at JFK, now thats impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Its not impressive at all, its just a local sea breeze. That spread can be 30 degrees in the Spring with 35 mph winds at JFK, now thats impressive. Yeah. I dont see the big deal either. I have seen LGA at 85 degrees and JFk at 60 degrees in late spring. In the summer also, we have seen LGA at 90 and JFK at 70 almost every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Yeah. I dont see the big deal either. I have seen LGA at 85 degrees and JFk at 60 degrees in late spring. In the summer also, we have seen LGA at 90 and JFK at 70 almost every year. We also see the opposite in some storms with a strong NE wind, the early march storm from a few years ago is an example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Alot of the gefs ensembles have a coastal storm for the weekend. The problem is that there is a lack of cold air on the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 There are 7 snowstorms or snow to rain storms out of the 12 GEFs members in the day 4-5 period. A few are moderate to heavy QPF events. Yes the airmass is marginal and the mid/upper levels less than ideal, but it makes for something interesting to track at least. Late January is the best time for marginal airmasses anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 these vorts exist in the nomad regions of the world or over the pacific. The amount, timing, and strength will continue to change for days. I have a feeling we see the first vort trend weaker (the system anthony loves that is a rainer) and the second system, the northern stream system trends stronger. In fact, the wave exists on the euro around 150 hours but gets its butt kicked and its ripped apart as it traverses the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 its going to rain soon, pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 its going to rain soon, pretty hard. Grass starting to poke through the snow here-bet it's mostly gone by sunset tomorrow--sun and 50's tomorrow will do the final deed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Temps soaring, 48/48 in the park, 50/48 in Newark. The 48 dwpt is also the highest the park has seen this month. We'll probably break 50 there. The highest dew last year in Jan was 48. And how 'bout that cold wedge? DCA is still at 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Temps soaring, 48/48 in the park, 50/48 in Newark. The 48 dwpt is also the highest the park has seen this month. We'll probably break 50 there. The highest dew last year in Jan was 48. And how 'bout that cold wedge? DCA is still at 37. Atlanta gets some crazy cold wedges down the apps...there were times it was raining in ny, but the cold wedge kept it below freezing in the atlanta area and allowed for freezing rain, was pretty cool to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 It's tough to tell with the Mt holly radar down again but it looks like a pretty healthy batch not too far west/sw of the city. its going to rain soon, pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Temps soaring, 48/48 in the park, 50/48 in Newark. The 48 dwpt is also the highest the park has seen this month. We'll probably break 50 there. The highest dew last year in Jan was 48. And how 'bout that cold wedge? DCA is still at 37. still 36 here in north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 still 36 here in north jersey It's definitely funneled down the east side of the Apps but is collapsing west to east. In VA, temps in the Shen Valley (elev ~1300 ft) are in the low 50s when 20 miles to the east across the Blue Ridge they are in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Weird rain and rain drops. Wonder what's causing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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