Isotherm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 what are your thoughts on the crappy MJO as far as a decent pattern around here next 30-45 days? It's certainly a detriment in terms of getting a sustained colder pattern going in the Eastern US. With continued unfavorable tropical forcing, we need more help from the NAO and AO. Any north atlantic blocking looks to be weak or non existant over the next couple weeks, and the AO doesn't appear to be tanking negative (in fact, there's not much reason for it to do so). Thus, we're heavily reliant, as we've been most of this winter, on low amplitude western PNA ridges providing the necessary forcing for short wave troughs to dig into the East. One such PNA spike looks to be occurring next weekend into the beginning of February, which is largely why that period is being highlighted for increased snowfall chance. Will it happen? MJO says no to any snowstorm of significant to major proportions, but I suppose a moderate event is within the realm of possibilities in this period. The AO being slightly negative definitely lessens the chance of a Lakes cutter for the late jan-early feb potential, but the pattern overall is still not that favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z GFS just missed the phase for the weekend. OTS. Should be interesting to see what the GEFS, GGEM and Euro shows. LOL, you do realize if that phased it cuts into st louis, right? Thats the WRONG system and setup. its what comes after we need to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 He also thinks GEFS shows threats when theres smoothed out QPF with the 850 line to our east, with a weak L off the coast. LOL, you do realize if that phased it cuts into st louis, right? Thats the WRONG system and setup. its what comes after we need to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 ECMWF has a classic trough axis for a significant storm; I just got to see it dig deeper, and perhaps get a weak block going, to sustained the flow of the pattern. But it does look lke a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 He also thinks GEFS shows threats when theres smoothed out QPF with the 850 line to our east, with a weak L off the coast. If I had snow every time the GEFS mean showed it, I'd have more than than the past three winters combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 ECMWF has a classic trough axis for a significant storm; I just got to see it dig deeper, and perhaps get a weak block going, to sustained the flow of the pattern. But it does look lke a Miller A. No downstream blocking or 50/50 low to speak of, the system will be progressive, but I agree that trough orientation w/ the ridge out West could be supportive of a moderate, or maybe best case scenario, a 5-10 type deal (which would be a blizzard in this winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 GFS is much more broad with the trough then what the euro showed. Would like to see some more ridging out west and a deeper trough. The euro's depiction was much more favorable for a storm, the gfs shows no legitimate threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 No downstream blocking or 50/50 low to speak of, the system will be progressive, but I agree that trough orientation w/ the ridge out West could be supportive of a moderate, or maybe best case scenario, a 5-10 type deal (which would be a blizzard in this winter). Just because I can't remember off the top of my head, did the January 26 storm last year have any high latitude blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 No downstream blocking or 50/50 low to speak of, the system will be progressive, but I agree that trough orientation w/ the ridge out West could be supportive of a moderate, or maybe best case scenario, a 5-10 type deal (which would be a blizzard in this winter). there is is sufficient heights over the davis strait to have east coast snow and we won't need the 50/50 since we aren't dealing with a HP and it working off the coast and torching the coastal plain, the cold air is enduced by the PNA ridge not by a HP centered over the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Just because I can't remember off the top of my head, did the January 26 storm last year have any high latitude blocking? NO, what it had was a good pac and perfectly timed confluence that worked in right ahead of the storm. We got very lucky. However, there was good height anomolies east of greenland which usually doesnt help us much but in retrospect it may have also been a player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 NO, what it had was a good pac and perfectly timed confluence that worked in right ahead of the storm. We got very lucky. However, there was good height anomolies east of greenland which usually doesnt help us much but in retrospect it may have also been a player. That is what I thought, and to be honest that is what reminded me how we can get a nice PNA ridge out west and very deep trough, then we can spark something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 right now, all i am focusing on is the davis strait. Keep that feature in place with an active storm pattern, and its eli manning at qb, and not mark sanchez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Just because I can't remember off the top of my head, did the January 26 storm last year have any high latitude blocking? If there was any, it was very weak. I remember beating it into the ground...repeatedly stating how the PNA and confluence being timed perfectly was so amazingly unlikely and that the lack of blocking gave it little chance of happening. Obviously I ate crow and the rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 No downstream blocking or 50/50 low to speak of, the system will be progressive, but I agree that trough orientation w/ the ridge out West could be supportive of a moderate, or maybe best case scenario, a 5-10 type deal (which would be a blizzard in this winter). Yes, we would need a block for us to get the big numbers; and it is not there. A weak block would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Just because I can't remember off the top of my head, did the January 26 storm last year have any high latitude blocking? weak... it was very weak. the incoming HP save the storm; and well, 12-20" of snow later..... Of course, we would have wanted a big block a week later for February 1-2, 2011 storm...Good Lord, we would have been buried with another 20-30+ inches. It was that dynamic. then our snowdepths would have been probably up to four feet of snow on the ground.... Most of us had 2 feet on the ground after JAN 26, then less than a week later, Feb 1-2, (assuming its all snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 there is is sufficient heights over the davis strait to have east coast snow and we won't need the 50/50 since we aren't dealing with a HP and it working off the coast and torching the coastal plain, the cold air is enduced by the PNA ridge not by a HP centered over the NE. Yes, well that's banking on the davis strait pos anomaly remaining on future runs. This potential is still a solid week out; I'd like to see more consistency with that feature there before getting too interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The PNA ridging is a very important feature in nearly all of our snowstorms. I think if we looked back at history, we'd find that some of our significant events lack NAO blocking but not PNA ridging. Not a coincidence that NYC has rarely if ever seen a 33"+ winter with a -PNA dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The pattern looks more promising than in the past, though still lacking blocking. But a positive anomaly in Davis Strait may be all that we need, the Oct 29, 2011 storm had it timed perfectly. The aid of the PNA and a negative AO indicates some potential, but yeah I don't know if things can be timed perfectly to get something around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z GGEM has the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Thats rain 12z GGEM has the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z GGEM has the weekend storm. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Anthony, anything associated with that southern vort is going to be a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Thats rain I know it is. I am just saying that the GGEM shows a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 curious to see if the euro holds onto that northern stream amplification when its ensembles didnt agree and the gfs remaining flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Amazing temperature spread in the borough of Queens right now. 50 at JFK and 39 at LGA! Have we ever seen that before in winter, i know summer has sea breeze, but wow. The north shore south shore difference is incredible right now. I left work in garden city/mineola which is mid-island, elevation around 75, temperature was about 50, felt very warm, snow all gone, drove only THREE miles north to my house in Albertson, elevation 170 and it was 44 degrees and noticeably colder out, with snowcover. Weather is awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Thats rain Don't know about that. For LI and NYC probably yes. Thicknesses are high and there is an E or SE wind. But with 850s below 0 in January you can't just assume rain. There would likely be some frozen precip around. Looks like wet snow for at least inland/elevated places to me. Obviously depending on the thermal profiles it could be a variety of other things as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Amazing temperature spread in the borough of Queens right now. 50 at JFK and 39 at LGA! Have we ever seen that before in winter, i know summer has sea breeze, but wow. The north shore south shore difference is incredible right now. I left work in garden city/mineola which is mid-island, elevation around 75, temperature was about 50, felt very warm, snow all gone, drove only THREE miles north to my house in Albertson, elevation 170 and it was 44 degrees and noticeably colder out, with snowcover. Weather is awesome... dude, not rare at all. Its a NE wind off the sound. We had winter stroms in the past where a NE wind off the sound would make LGA warmer than everyone else, including JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Amazing temperature spread in the borough of Queens right now. 50 at JFK and 39 at LGA! Have we ever seen that before in winter, i know summer has sea breeze, but wow. The north shore south shore difference is incredible right now. I left work in garden city/mineola which is mid-island, elevation around 75, temperature was about 50, felt very warm, snow all gone, drove only THREE miles north to my house in Albertson, elevation 170 and it was 44 degrees and noticeably colder out, with snowcover. Weather is awesome... Temps on the up in the city, mid 40s now. The cold wedge to the west is shrinking rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Bloody Brilliant trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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