MJO812 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The ggem has a pretty large storm as well, but a little offshore. Yep. It's warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Light snow falling here. Did not expect to see anything but rain tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Light snow falling here. Did not expect to see anything but rain tonight Flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Where are you at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Where are you at? We are both from Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Thanks, I knew Snow88 aka Metfan was living in Brooklyn but was not sure of Sock puppet. Anyway, the forecast needs to be tweaked as it only mentioned freezing drizzle, I believe. No big deal just some light stuff. Temps have been slowing rising to above freezing here in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Temps here has been hovering around 33-34. Now it's over Thanks, I knew Snow88 aka Metfan was living in Brooklyn but was not sure of Sock puppet. Anyway, the forecast needs to be tweaked as it only mentioned freezing drizzle, I believe. No big deal just some light stuff. Temps have been slowing rising to above freezing here in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 . Our friends at the NWS just updated and added the flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 the euro is barking for something around hr 150..PNA spike, favorable trough, low forming in the carolinas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 My goodness is that a gorgeous trough digging towards the Gulf Coast at 150 hours on the Euro. Definitely not the best set up given the features surrounding it...but great to see nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 the euro is barking for something around hr 150..PNA spike, favorable trough, low forming in the carolinas.. The PNA spike is just a hair short lived on this run...it is de-amplified by 150 hrs somewhat. So the trough axis will escape east as the pattern becomes slightly more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Snowing at 162 hours. It's trying to capture the surface low. Big signal...the H5 trough axis nearly got to the Gulf Coast at 150 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The PNA spike is just a hair short lived on this run...it is de-amplified by 150 hrs somewhat. So the trough axis will escape east as the pattern becomes slightly more progressive. yeah..this solution was one step away from being a big time weenie solution. That "kicker" i guess dropping in the midwest might have ruined this run from producing a snowstorm. It looks like that makes the trough more progressive. Overall though this looks good, i guess we can call this the trials storm? lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 It bombs out 6 hours too late...kinda develops just south of the benchmark as opposed to the ideal situation which would be 6 hours earlier off the Mid Atlantic coast. It gets into the 970's north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 With the positive height anomalies over the Davis Straight and non-negative height anomalies over Greenland...timed with a PNA ridge..this would be the time for the trough amplification. The GEFS agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Still snowing lightly here in Blairstown, NJ. It never turned over at all. About .2 inches of accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 oh yeah....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wow! Still snowing lightly here in Blairstown, NJ. It never turned over at all. About .2 inches of accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 This says something about the op run. The GFS is still west of the op and has been for several runs now. The DGEX now shows a coastal storm. The Euro ensembles don't have anything so we have a lot of options on the table. The 6z GFS was also coming around to a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 This says something about the op run. The GFS is still west of the op and has been for several runs now. The DGEX now shows a coastal storm. The Euro ensembles don't have anything so we have a lot of options on the table. The 6z GFS was also coming around to a storm. be careful here, there are two distinct waves. The one the euro liked last night was NOT the wave from 12z, it was the second system, the system I have been keying in on. You can tell the difference by seeing that the first wave is the rogue southern stream system. The second system northern stream dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 be careful here, there are two distinct waves. The one the euro liked last night was NOT the wave from 12z, it was the second system, the system I have been keying in on. You can tell the difference by seeing that the first wave is the rogue southern stream system. The second system northern stream dominant. The GEFS have been eyeing on the 1st wave for a while. If the 2nd wave would happen, it would most likely be colder than the 1st wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The GEFS have been eyeing on the 1st wave for a while. If the 2nd wave would happen, it would most likely be colder than the 1st wave. cant see the individuals because it appears penn state has run out of money fighting their legal battles and cant pay for a web developer, but i would imagine the individual members are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 what are your thoughts on the crappy MJO as far as a decent pattern around here next 30-45 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Can we change the subtitle to this thread? No shutout this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 The Euro ensembles were not enthused at all with any winter storm threat through the end of the period. The first storm around 120 hours is warm and ejects too far ahead of the cold airmass. After that there is way too much spread to discern any specific threat areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The Euro ensembles were not enthused at all with any winter storm threat through the end of the period. The first storm around 120 hours is warm and ejects too far ahead of the cold airmass. After that there is way too much spread to discern any specific threat areas. the first storm was always going to be warm, that is not surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 what are your thoughts on the crappy MJO as far as a decent pattern around here next 30-45 days? there have been good storms in crappy MJO's and it doesnt appear like the pac is hesitant to amplify so maybe we can steal another one. We have a davis strait blocking feature, we need to maximize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Can we change the subtitle to this thread? No shutout this winter. worst subtitle ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Pretty big temperature spread on the island now, upper 40's out east, upper 30's west. Nassau itself has a wide spread, 46 bellmore, upper 30's in muttowntown, floral park area, always interesting to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z GFS just missed the phase for the weekend. OTS. Should be interesting to see what the GEFS, GGEM and Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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