TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 any penn state met students here? can you tell someone to fix ewall please. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 18z GFS does not have a d7 storm. As Trials said, the models have zero idea what is going on. not exactly what I said, but ok. Anyway, IMHO, the best threat is 29th through the 2nd anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 trunaction is going to ruin the end result but I really love how the 500mb flow is developing on this run of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 well there are a bunch of northern stream features dropping down, the cutoff low in the south decides to hook up with the first one which forms an unfavorable trough and no real second low.. This will be interesting to track i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 well there are a bunch of northern stream features dropping down, the cutoff low in the south decides to hook up with the first one which forms an unfavorable trough and no real second low.. This will be interesting to track i think I promise you that you want to hope that earthlight storm on the euro is a rainer or no storm, trust me ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 not exactly what I said, but ok. Well saying that the models will produce a billion solutions probably infers that you meant what I wrote in my comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 trunaction is going to ruin the end result but I really love how the 500mb flow is developing on this run of the gfs. Yep, one can clearly identify a northern stream piece of energy, and a southern branch piece of energy. The question is, what will happen between these two pieces of energy? Will they phase or remain separate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I promise you that you want to hope that earthlight storm on the euro is a rainer or no storm, trust me ;-) as shown on the 18z gfs, we will get thunderstorms. But if that cutoff low waits for the next piece of northern stream energy that digs in the lakes i think we have a legitimate shot. This will probably all change in 48hrs completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Current Observations show that the 30 degree line is sitting east of Mercer county NJ, and cutting through Burlington County NJ. I'm below 30 degrees, it seems. I'm not sure why Mt. Holly hasn't issued ZR Advisories for my area, because as you said, this is mainly an interior NJ event. Looking at the advisories across the area is quite comical. It shows a large arc in ZR advisories that pass one county north of me, and then come back south as it comes into Upton's territory. Yeah, Wash DC, Baltimore, and NYC are all under ZR advisories. I think PHL area should be under one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 action around 204-216 right where it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 this is what the euro should have looked like IMHO Obviously it's just the DGEX, but it's something to think about... if I remember correctly, the 18z DGEX starts at the 18z NAM hour 84 position while using the 12z GFS data for the rest of the run. If this is true, then a west adjustment with the cutoff on the GFS, which is what the NAM represents as the hour 84 NAM is west with the cutoff than the 12z GFS at hour 90, would result in a big rainstorm for the area. As the 12z GFS showed a near miss, this shows just how small the window of opportunity is for this storm to become an I-95 snowstorm, assuming that there's no huge changes in the set up for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 as shown on the 18z gfs, we will get thunderstorms. But if that cutoff low waits for the next piece of northern stream energy that digs in the lakes i think we have a legitimate shot. This will probably all change in 48hrs completely lol, you don't want that cutoff involved at all, trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The normal low for Jan is 27, so we are pretty much right there. . The last 40 years must have really screwed up the averages, because when I was young, it was generally held that the normal January daily low in Central Park was 25 F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Alot of shortwaves involved on the gfs. We will see a million solutions. I want to see if the gefs still has a signal for the weekend event. It has been signaling something for two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 you dont want those cutoffs with crappy airmasses and no blocking. They suck for this area in those setups. Let it get out of the way and lets play with the split flow with a pna spike and better heights around the davis strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 January 2009 had some fairly sustained arctic cold in the NYC metro area, although not as extreme as the outbreaks earlier in the decade. NYC finished January 2009 -4.2F, with dailies of 16/9 and 22/6 on the 16th and 17th. It was also fairly cold on the 20th and 21st of the month with highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens. There were those two notable mornings in January 2009 when Westhampton plunged to -15 F and -16 F...some of the best cold out there since the 1980's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yeah, Wash DC, Baltimore, and NYC are all under ZR advisories. I think PHL area should be under one as well. I'm not sure why Mt. Holly hasn't issued ZR Advisories for my area, because as you said, this is mainly an interior NJ event. An hour after I write this, they do. HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 553 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY. * HAZARD TYPES...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. * ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRUAL. * IMPACTS...A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ALONG WITH SLIPPERY SIDEWALKS. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TEND TO FREEZE UP FIRST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Exactly, which is why no one should be writing this off yet because of a day seven synoptic set up. Anything can happen, which is why it needs to be watched. Apparently bad synoptic setup aside <based on a 6 day away printout>, the last few days of January are very close to the most climatologically favorable time of the year for a snowstorm around here; a factor not to be discounted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Just wrote up a post on my feb thoughts... http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/474 The pattern going forward isn't a great one, but it's better than the past 2 months. Seasonable weather in the late Jan-mid feb time frame can be enough to give us a light or moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I think for next weekend, it going to come down to where the PV is over Canada, when the SW cut-off is coming up the coast. The Euro had the PV over Eastern Hudson Bay and Western Queebec. Which would put under more confluence and keep the low along the coast. While the GFS,GGEM,UKMET all have the PV further NW in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Flurries have begn here 28/18 going to be an icy morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Not to beat a dead horse, but im just astounded how nassau county was shafted this storm...NYC and suffolk county are now ahead of nassau for the year, for different reasons? How does NYC AND suffolk get more? Usually its one or the other? The theory about orographic lift is all good and well except for the fact that montauk and orient are flat and on the water...next? For a storm with supposedly marginal temps out east, eastern suffolk nearly tripled some totals in nassau...Yet just further WEST in the city, they also doubled nassau totals. Just shocked how nassau never jackpots. usually on the lower end (except january 11, 2011 where we killed it). The radar echoes often die over nassau and then light up again in western suffolk. I just dont get it... There are multiple factors which work against Nassau County, particualrly the southern half, with regards to snowfall...lack of elevation, close proximity to Atlantic, mountain ranges to the northwest which generally lead to quick improvement (rather than lingering precip) once an ocean low reaches L.I. lattitude and the winds back to northwest. Another one which is often overlooked is lack of latitude...in mid continent N. America, one would be 70 miles or so south of Chicago...no snow mecca by any means, although, of course, winter precip is a good deal lower in central Illinois. Another factor is that the county is heavily developed; this does not help in marginal setups and this will only worsen as further urbanization encroaches. I left Nassau in 1994 - pre internet- so I did not have much chance to compare snow totals in the rest of the area beyond what was shown on the 11 PM news or what was announced over NOAA weather radio / no PNS's to evaluate...and I do not think I paid much attention to Suffolk County back then, anyway. I would generally have to wait until my monthly order of the NOAA publication Climatological Data came in the mail...and even then, there were so few stations represented...and missing data at so many of them was such a problem...that effective comparisons were a difficult proposition. As time progressed and I moved to Port Jefferson, I noted that a fair share of storms hit the western half of the Island harder than the eastern half and, in a fair share, the reverse is true. Most of the time this is based on track and amount of precipitation generated; but sometimes it is a temperature related matter. There are not that many times that it is warmer on the west end than the east with an approaching mid latitude cyclone for the simple reason of greater marine exposure out east; though it does happen from time to time with the appropriate synoptic setup. If Suffolk County is to receive more snow than Nassau, most of the time it will be due to the simple fact that it juts out farther east and is simply closer to the offshore cyclone. I've noticed that Nassau tends to do a bit better early in the winter and Suffolk later...not all the time...but enough to be noteworthy. For November through January, I believe the snowiest spot would be in the vicinity of Upper Brookville / East Norwich. Much of the region is above 200 feet, and it is during the first three months of the cold season that being as far removed from maritime influences as possible is elemental to maximizing snowfall potential around here. Remember the totals approaching 15 inches in Nassau County for the Dec. 30, 2000 storm - and the gradual decrease as one headed east down to a trace at Montauk? This changes subtly from February through the first week of April. By Feb. 1, the water is usually in the 30's and it's role in warming the atmosphere has diminished. Also, the storm track has shifted a bit to the east by now. It is during these last three months that snowfall maximums begin to show up from about Fort Salonga to as far east as Shoreham. March 3, 2001 was a prime example, as this area saw about 15 inches, while, just to the west, totals dropped off rapidly. The April 9, 1996 storm is also representative of this pattern...a storm that produced virtually no accumulating snow in Manhattan but over 12 inches in central Suffolk. Another factor to consider is the increased width of the Sound as one heads east...a prolonged fetch over open water almost certainly is a factor in augmenting precip totals further east (though west of Riverhead, before the Sound again narrows)...the meso scale models invariably pick this up and print out higher QPF amounts along the north facing shores of Suffolk; accounting for the NE winds slamming up against the bluffs... Lastly, do not discount the minor increase in latitude as one heads eastbound...Orient Point is about 40 miles north of Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 About half of the individual 18z ensemble members have a very interesting solution that looks very much like the Euro/JMA with a deepening low just off the DelMarva or NJ coast bombing out next Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 There are multiple factors which work against Nassau County, particualrly the southern half, with regards to snowfall...lack of elevation, close proximity to Atlantic, mountain ranges to the northwest which generally lead to quick improvement (rather than lingering precip) once an ocean low reaches L.I. lattitude and the winds back to northwest. Another one which is often overlooked is lack of latitude...in mid continent N. America, one would be 70 miles or so south of Chicago...no snow mecca by any means, although, of course, winter precip is a good deal lower in central Illinois. Another factor is that the county is heavily developed; this does not help in marginal setups and this will only worsen as further urbanization encroaches. I left Nassau in 1994 - pre internet- so I did not have much chance to compare snow totals in the rest of the area beyond what was shown on the 11 PM news or what was announced over NOAA weather radio / no PNS's to evaluate...and I do not think I paid much attention to Suffolk County back then, anyway. I would generally have to wait until my monthly order of the NOAA publication Climatological Data came in the mail...and even then, there were so few stations represented...and missing data at so many of them was such a problem...that effective comparisons were a difficult proposition. As time progressed and I moved to Port Jefferson, I noted that a fair share of storms hit the western half of the Island harder than the eastern half and, in a fair share, the reverse is true. Most of the time this is based on track and amount of precipitation generated; but sometimes it is a temperature related matter. There are not that many times that it is warmer on the west end than the east with an approaching mid latitude cyclone for the simple reason of greater marine exposure out east; though it does happen from time to time with the appropriate synoptic setup. If Suffolk County is to receive more snow than Nassau, most of the time it will be due to the simple fact that it juts out farther east and is simply closer to the offshore cyclone. I've noticed that Nassau tends to do a bit better early in the winter and Suffolk later...not all the time...but enough to be noteworthy. For November through January, I believe the snowiest spot would be in the vicinity of Upper Brookville / East Norwich. Much of the region is above 200 feet, and it is during the first three months of the cold season that being as far removed from maritime influences as possible is elemental to maximizing snowfall potential around here. Remember the totals approaching 15 inches in Nassau County for the Dec. 30, 2000 storm - and the gradual decrease as one headed east down to a trace at Montauk? This changes subtly from February through the first week of April. By Feb. 1, the water is usually in the 30's and it's role in warming the atmosphere has diminished. Also, the storm track has shifted a bit to the east by now. It is during these last three months that snowfall maximums begin to show up from about Fort Salonga to as far east as Shoreham. March 3, 2001 was a prime example, as this area saw about 15 inches, while, just to the west, totals dropped off rapidly. The April 9, 1996 storm is also representative of this pattern...a storm that produced virtually no accumulating snow in Manhattan but over 12 inches in central Suffolk. Another factor to consider is the increased width of the Sound as one heads east...a prolonged fetch over open water almost certainly is a factor in augmenting precip totals further east (though west of Riverhead, before the Sound again narrows)...the meso scale models invariably pick this up and print out higher QPF amounts along the north facing shores of Suffolk; accounting for the NE winds slamming up against the bluffs... Lastly, do not discount the minor increase in latitude as one heads eastbound...Orient Point is about 40 miles north of Long Beach. interesting thoughts, thanks william. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 action around 204-216 right where it should be. i gotta say we get a phase at the right time with all the pieces coming together its BOOM! off the east coast for us and big snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 interesting situation on the island right now where the middle island is actually still below freezing while coastal CT, coastal Westchester, bronx, and jersey are above freezing...notice farmingdale at 32, islip at 32, the wind is easterly now blowing across the snow covered land, keeping the interior island cold, while north, south and western areas are warming...LGA, 33, NYC, 33, Newark 33, JFK 34... * i know this is temporary, but still cool feature to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 interesting thoughts, thanks william. Since you now live in Nassau, I copied and pasted some Nassau climate data from a post I made at Eastern WX a couple years ago...I thought the banter thread would be a better spot for it...here is the link to the post... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31842-jan-2012-banter-thread/page__st__1295 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Getting some very light snow now. Dusting on all surfaces 32.4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 interesting situation on the island right now where the middle island is actually still below freezing while coastal CT, coastal Westchester, bronx, and jersey are above freezing...notice farmingdale at 32, islip at 32, the wind is easterly now blowing across the snow covered land, keeping the interior island cold, while north, south and western areas are warming...LGA, 33, NYC, 33, Newark 33, JFK 34... * i know this is temporary, but still cool feature to see. Yeah im in wantagh right now at 32, Also there is defitly about an in more snow here then in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Light freezing drizzle being reported in DCA right now, 31F. Expect light pcpn to blossom S-N over the Delmarva next few hours. I'm at 28F here NW of PHL, could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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