jiksports Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's not only the euro showing it. The Euro ensembles , ggem, and now the sref and nam are trending north. The Nam is trending north, but not showing anything measurable. The 15Z SREF gave virtually nobody even a 10 percent chance for an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's not only the euro showing it. The Euro ensembles , ggem, and now the sref and nam are trending north. 18 Z NAM is dry in NYC ... The low is in the exact same spot at 36 as it was at 42 on the 12 Z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18 Z NAM is dry in NYC ... The low is in the exact same spot at 36 as it was at 42 on the 12 Z.. Not the only one that thinks it trended north . Really hard to go against the gefs and euro ensembles at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18 Z NAM is dry in NYC ... The low is in the exact same spot at 36 as it was at 42 on the 12 Z.. the precip shield has absolutely trended north, slp isn't the only way a model can trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hard to think of the last time a low originated in the Gulf, came up the eastern cordillera and yet no one on the western side of the mature cyclone saw snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Weren't there flurries around? I saw some. I had a nice snow shower pass through here with the sun out the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The AO map from the 12z gfs has it tanking to -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't know, these may have trended north but barely getting the 20% probability of 0.01" of precipitation into central NJ is hardly much to get excited for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 NYC area missed a great winter by just a few miles in 92-93. It wasn't great, but it wasn't a total clunker either. Yes I agree, though just checking, the 12/12/92 event put down 16" at Yorktown Heights and a trace at CPK...Westchester County Airport (White Plains) measured 8.0". That was the winter White Plains beat NYC CPK 50" to 25", IIRC. Yorktown Heights measured 60.8" that 1992-93 winter. Westchester County Airport received 15.0" of snow in the Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 The SREF bumped north again, but the NAM remains dry. A lot of times in these situations the truth lies somewhere in between the Euro/Euro Ens and the SREF QPF, which unfortunately means not much for most of our area. However I still think it will be worth checking out..there's def. the possibility of some flakes which is a big change coming off the 64 F weather on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GFS also moved north somewhat in terms of QPF but it's still very light, barely touching LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Here is the 21Z SREF earthlight talked about. Seems to hint any precipitation in the southern half of NJ might struggle to be flakes. Mean Precipitation through 36 Hours Mean Precipitation Type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro trended weaker and lost almost all measurable precipitation. Yikes -- usually the most reliable at this range, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro trended weaker and lost almost all measurable precipitation. Yikes -- usually the most reliable at this range, too. Euro FTL. GFS FTW. Seriously, the Euro hasn't been good this year at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Damn not for nothing but the EC wunderground maps give us up here a nice snowstorm from hr78 onward.. hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Damn not for nothing but the EC wunderground maps give us up here a nice snowstorm from hr78 onward.. hmm Yeah, if by the grace of God its right, there will be suicide watches posted anywhere SE of you. There would be some very very ugly radars for NYC proper with very heavy snow to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah the Euro is pretty cold with the storm around 84-90 hours. The GEFS are colder too...I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for this to trend a bit colder. The antecedent airmass is very poor...even over New England. So don't get your hopes up. But I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of some snow over the interior (NW NJ, SE NY, NW CT) at the start of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 grasping at straws here but NAM went a touch north for tomorrow, .10-.25 touching extreme S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If the 06Z GFS is right we're gonna start to get some real action on these boards next week. We should start seeing posts like Birmingham AL/Memphis TN >>>>>> Snow than NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If the 06Z GFS is right we're gonna start to get some real action on these boards next week. We should start seeing posts like Birmingham AL/Memphis TN >>>>>> Snow than NYC And a big heating oil bill, with a lack of snow. Some serious cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Good agreement on gradient pattern from Euro and GFS. We'll have to watch for any amplifications in order to get a piece of the cold to work south. The models handle those details better in the shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The gefs members are hinting at a storm day 5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The gefs members are hinting at a storm day 5-7. I like the look of the pattern in that timeframe. If we can get some energy from the SW to eject and hook up with the northern stream I think we could see an overruning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GEFS don't get the 850 or 925mb 0c line past Staten Island at 72 hours. The 2m temperatures are cold too...in the low to mid 30's. An outlier solution--but this run of the ensembles definitely brings snow to the interior and the potential for snow/sleet to the immediate suburbs. Surface low WV/NC border to Ocean City MD and then due E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GEFS don't get the 850 or 925mb 0c line past Staten Island at 72 hours. The 2m temperatures are cold too...in the low to mid 30's. An outlier solution--but this run of the ensembles definitely brings snow to the interior and the potential for snow/sleet to the immediate suburbs. Surface low WV/NC border to Ocean City MD and then due E. Big shift to colder on the models today. GGEM followed suit at 12z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Here are the GEFS 925mb temperatures at their warmest point at 72 hours. 850mb temperatures are similar, maybe a hair cooler. A signal for some warmth in the boundary layer. But a very cold solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Here are the GEFS 925mb temperatures at their warmest point at 72 hours. 850mb temperatures are similar, maybe a hair cooler. A signal for some warmth in the boundary layer. But a very cold solution. Will be interesting to see the individual members to see how many are colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 My guess is that interior spots will have the best shot at seeing some frozen on the front end as the BL looks like it will be too warm at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 My guess is that interior spots will have the best shot at seeing some frozen on the front end as the BL looks like it will be too warm at the coast. The NAM has the surface low more north and closer to coast then any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 My guess is that interior spots will have the best shot at seeing some frozen on the front end as the BL looks like it will be too warm at the coast. NAM @ 69hrs probably has the accuracy of the GFS @ 180hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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