NYCSuburbs Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 it's hard to see but on the 500mb maps i think there is a cutoff block, albeit weak, that will likely force the storm offshore..Heck, maybe even ots like the gfs..The big worry is that right now there is not a heck of a lot of cold air showing up, and no classic high pressure. But hey, a marginal setup in the most favorable part of the year for snow..sign me up The cold air is definitely one of the issues with this set up. Any cold air ahead of the storm is very weak, and as you pointed out there is no classic high pressure in this case; by the time stronger cold air begins to drop into the US, it's too late. There's plenty of time for the storm track to change, and snow is possible if we get lucky, but at least from what it's looking like right now, the set up would be more likely to produce rain or no storm than a snowstorm, just as we've seen with this pattern for almost every storm this winter except for yesterday's snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I have to wonder if a slower system is not a possibility because the most progressive model is still in the south central and then the GGEM Also seems slower with the system as well.. On the other hand the UKMET at this point looks like it would be the western outlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 January 2009 had some fairly sustained arctic cold in the NYC metro area, although not as extreme as the outbreaks earlier in the decade. NYC finished January 2009 -4.2F, with dailies of 16/9 and 22/6 on the 16th and 17th. It was also fairly cold on the 20th and 21st of the month with highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens. Here is a nice picture of the partially frozen Hudson River in late January 2005, following the big arctic outbreak that occurred when I was in high school: Great shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 The Euro has a confluent shortwave moving through Southeast Canada around 126 hours that essentially saves the airmass from torching prior to the event. With a cutoff low over the southern US, this shortwave over Southeast Canada could be essential. The 12z GFS had a very similar shortwave. You can see how this sets up the baroclinic zone offshore. With a good cold air source to the north, that could be our hope with this event. Also note the northern stream shortwave ready to really amplify at 126 hours on the GFS as well. We should watch these main features over the next several days. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The Euro has a confluent shortwave moving through Southeast Canada around 126 hours that essentially saves the airmass from torching prior to the event. With a cutoff low over the southern US, this shortwave over Southeast Canada could be essential. The 12z GFS had a very similar shortwave. You can see how this sets up the baroclinic zone offshore. With a good cold air source to the north, that could be our hope with this event. Also note the northern stream shortwave ready to really amplify at 126 hours on the GFS as well. We should watch these main features over the next several days. http://www.meteo.psu...VN_12z/f126.gif dont see this bud, show we where you cold air to funnel into this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 dont see this bud, show we where you cold air to funnel into this system Supply may have been a better word. Loop through these height anomalies and notice how the polar vortex actually detaches from the main piece in British Columbia and Alaska, and slides south into Central and Eastern Canada. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html There's plenty of cold air to "funnel" into the system once that northern stream feature dives southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It will be very interesting to see what the 18z GFS has in store, because it was VERY close with producing a storm closer to the coast at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 12z Euro ensembles have the main surface low over Central Canada. They kind of develop the surface low overhead instead of farther south...so it turns into more a Miller B type solution. I was surprised to see that they don't have much of a surface reflection for the cutoff low which is being advertised on most forecast models to move from the southern US towards the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Interesting noone has mentioned the Freezing Rain Advisory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...COASTAL CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK. * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING DRIZZLE. * ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. * TIMING...TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...LIGHT ICE ACCRETION WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...COASTAL CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK. * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING DRIZZLE. * ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. * TIMING...TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...LIGHT ICE ACCRETION WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && i think bust for long island...temps will be above freezing soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 this is a medium to long range thread, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 this is a medium to long range thread, no? It says "Mid-January Discussion"...its mid jan and im discussing the current freezing rain advisory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 this is a medium to long range thread, no? Just a non-specific discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It says "Mid-January Discussion"...its mid jan and im discussing the current freezing rain advisory... im busting on you man...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Just a non-specific discussion thread. it was a joke, i was messing with psv, it didn't translate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 i think bust for long island...temps will be above freezing soon... I agree..the surface cold wedge is more pronounced west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 im busting on you man...lol. haha ok, didnt translate, my bad for a poor read. I think the board is hungover from the storm, its dead. Ravens are putting up a good fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I agree..the surface cold wedge is more pronounced west of the city. Yeah, as both of us mentioned yesterday, this was more of a concern for interior sections of NJ where sfc temps will remain AOB freezing through much of the overnight. Coastal NJ and LI are already nearing the freezing mark (KBLM at 32), and freezing rain is a warming process, unlike snowfall, due to the latent heat release. So I think the main worry is for folks still sitting in the mid/upper 20s. Those already near/at freezing likely won't have a light ZR issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yeah, as both of us mentioned yesterday, this was more of a concern for interior sections of NJ where sfc temps will remain AOB freezing through much of the overnight. Coastal NJ and LI are already nearing the freezing mark (KBLM at 32), and freezing rain is a warming process, unlike snowfall, due to the latent heat release. So I think the main worry is for folks still sitting in the mid/upper 20s. Those already near/at freezing likely won't have a light ZR issue. Looking closer at wunderground obs indicates temps on the Monmouth/Ocean shores are already surging into the mid/upper 30s with an east wind. As the sfc high moves east of Maine, it won't be long before the rest of LI/NYC and the coastal zone inch above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looking closer at wunderground obs indicates temps on the Monmouth/Ocean shores are already surging into the mid/upper 30s with an east wind. As the sfc high moves east of Maine, it won't be long before the rest of LI/NYC and the coastal zone inch above 32. We're at 33 here. Of course, freezing rain has got to be pretty rare in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yeah, as both of us mentioned yesterday, this was more of a concern for interior sections of NJ where sfc temps will remain AOB freezing through much of the overnight. Coastal NJ and LI are already nearing the freezing mark (KBLM at 32), and freezing rain is a warming process, unlike snowfall, due to the latent heat release. So I think the main worry is for folks still sitting in the mid/upper 20s. Those already near/at freezing likely won't have a light ZR issue. Current Observations show that the 30 degree line is sitting east of Mercer county NJ, and cutting through Burlington County NJ. I'm below 30 degrees, it seems. I'm not sure why Mt. Holly hasn't issued ZR Advisories for my area, because as you said, this is mainly an interior NJ event. Looking at the advisories across the area is quite comical. It shows a large arc in ZR advisories that pass one county north of me, and then come back south as it comes into Upton's territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yes the zr threat is pretty nil for nyc and li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The JMA looks like a big hit for our area between 144 hrs and 168 hrs. It starts our warm at 144 hrs with the 850 temps about +3 but it cools to about -3 by 168 hrs as the 850's have pushed offshore. Hard to get details with the 24 hour intervals, but it appears to me to be a big hit and look very much like the Euro with heavier precip amounts in the 1-1.25 inch range in our area. At 144 hrs it has the surface low over the Tennessee Valley and very moist, then at 168 hrs it has a 987mb low over Eastern Maine. It seems to take the low up into the Eastern Kentucky area, then it falls apart and re-develops it near the DelMarva, then bombs it out very quickly near there and tracks it NNE just offshore up to Eastern Maine. Looks to me to be a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yes the zr threat is pretty nil for nyc and li Actually, with sunset, the temp has dropped to 31 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 this is what the euro should have looked like IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 the gfs could be taking a step towards the euro ens with no real second low that goes up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 with a split flow developing and the vorts dropping down from a piss poor grid, we are gonna see a billion different solutions from 130 hours forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 18z GFS does not have a d7 storm. As Trials said, the models have zero idea what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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