earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 12z Euro ensembles have have a very nice signal for +16 to +20 dm height anomalies over the Davis Straight in the 6-10 day height anomalies. They are generally in agreement with the GEFS in moving a piece of the Polar Vortex from British Columbia to Southeast Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 just remember who saw it first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 just remember who saw it first! HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Temps haven't moved much, hovering in the mid 20s under overcast skies. Wonder if we'll get down in the teens as predicted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 HM Most definitely HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 That's a pretty robust signal at 168 on the GFS. Might be borderline snow profiles outside the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 That's a pretty robust signal at 168 on the GFS. Might be borderline snow profiles outside the city. have to think that has got warmer written all over it, not a good setup with low in the lakes, high retreatnig fast and cutoff coming out of the south, its the days after that interest me. Antecedent airmass is not good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 That's a pretty robust signal at 168 on the GFS. Might be borderline snow profiles outside the city. Really nice signal..Looks like that small cutoff block would help this get off the coast. Question is, will the cold air get here fast enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 have to think that has got warmer written all over it, not a good setup with low in the lakes, high retreatnig fast and cutoff coming out of the south, its the days after that interest me. Antecedent airmass is not good either. It's too far out to determine exactly how it would play out, the setup as depicted would not be good right now, but that could easily change in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Temps haven't moved much, hovering in the mid 20s under overcast skies. Wonder if we'll get down in the teens as predicted? Down to 6.8* up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GGEM has a coastal storm but it's also warm. GEFS has a signal and its colder than the op and the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GGEM has a coastal storm but it's also warm. GEFS has a signal and its colder than the op and the GGEM. Unlike many storms we have seen this year, cold air is drawn into the system. That may help; we'll have to keep watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Unlike many storms we have seen this year, cold air is drawn into the system. That may help; we'll have to keep watching it. The end of next week storm that was on the 12z Euro is a warm rainstorm on the 0z Euro. Not sure what it shows for next weekend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It just bothers me a little to see that the MJO still refuses to cooperate by going into a weak impulse of Phases 5-6 into the first week of February. Thus, these unfavorable phases of the MJO tend to reduce the prospects of a guaranteed +PNA, -EPO and Alaskan ridge regime. Also, the Euro does not want to tank the AO as much as the GFS in the medium- to long-range, which would hinder our -NAO. If we can somehow get one or both of those factors to cooperate, our chances of repeating the 1966-67 winter increases. Roger Smith has used that winter season as one of his analog years in his October winter outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 That's a pretty robust signal at 168 on the GFS. Might be borderline snow profiles outside the city. I think the PV looks too oriented north to south across South-Central Canada, for that one to be a major snowstorm for us. No cold air source and too much room for it come NW. However, it might set us for bigger threat Jan 30-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I think the PV looks too oriented north to south across South-Central Canada, for that one to be a major snowstorm for us. No cold air source and too much room for it come NW. However, it might set us for bigger threat Jan 30-31. GFS ensembles keep on hinting at a storm near the end of the month. Should be interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 nice setup taking place after that first wave that won't amount to anything we need to focus on the split flow with the pv starting to move out of the northeast setting up a 50/50 underneath the block. this is the 180 hours setup, not the 150 hour thingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 too bad the gfs will truncate, its really coming together at 192 anyway, thats the storm and setup to watch, anything before that really doesnt have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 This must be the year of thread the needle around here. Just like near the end of October, a brief window of opportunity with the -AO was all that we needed here for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 too bad the gfs will truncate, its really coming together at 192 anyway, thats the storm and setup to watch, anything before that really doesnt have a chance the hour 192 system is gonna turn into something quite big i take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 This must be the year of thread the needle around here. Just like near the end of October, a brief window of opportunity with the -AO was all that we needed here for snow. if the AO ever gets below -2 we will see the coldest weather of the season or a snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 The NAM continues to show the potential for freezing drizzle or light freezing rain tonight throughout much of the area. You can see via the precipitation type algorithm on ewall that the NAM is picking up on the low level cold now. It looks like the potential for light freezing precipitation could exist until 04-06z. There is a warm layer on forecast soundings at 800mb that is fairly modest in depth...but the main issue is that there is mainly low level saturation which would argue for freezing drizzle. If we can get a bit more mid level moisture, maybe we can squeeze out an hour or snow before the mid levels warm above 0 C. But I wouldn't count on that. I would think that a period of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is more likely tonight for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 12z ECMWF at 144 hours has a moderately strong coastal storm. Temperatures look cold enough for snow C NJ northward, per the 850 mb temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Temps are slowly creeping up towards freezing along the coast...29 here now and rising...so anything that falls later may be liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 12z ECMWF Text Printout for NYC for the storm I posted above: SAT 06Z 28-JAN 4.5 -1.2 1010 82 100 0.05 555 547 SAT 12Z 28-JAN 1.6 -2.2 1003 97 98 0.49 547 545 SAT 18Z 28-JAN 2.6 -4.0 1003 83 84 0.23 543 540 SUN 00Z 29-JAN 1.9 -5.7 1008 78 28 0.00 540 533 SUN 06Z 29-JAN 0.0 -6.5 1010 78 20 0.00 535 526 850 mb temperatures are below normal the entire storm in NYC, but thicknesses are a tad higher than 540. Surface temperatures are in the mid 30s the entire storm as well. The 12z ECMWF storm at 144 hours reminds me of the late-October event in terms of duration, intensity, and the surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Tonight's low of 18 in NYC makes it the 5th sub 20 degree low of the month and also the 5th of the season. To compare, last winter up to 1/22/11, we had 6 such days (1 in Dec, 5 in Jan by Jan 22). It looks like this morning's low will also be the last sub 20 low of the month... so that would be 5 so far in the winter of 11/12 vs 8 in Dec & Jan of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Tonight's low of 18 in NYC makes it the 5th sub 20 degree low of the month and also the 5th of the season. To compare, last winter up to 1/22/11, we had 6 such days (1 in Dec, 5 in Jan by Jan 22). It looks like this morning's low will also be the last sub 20 low of the month... so that would be 5 so far in the winter of 11/12 vs 8 in Dec & Jan of last winter. Funny with all the posts about the "end of winter", this adds some perspective to things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Funny with all the posts about the "end of winter", this adds some perspective to things. Despite the anomalous warmth, the lows in NYC have been pretty chilly. We are averaging a low of 28 so far this month vs 25 last January. The normal low for Jan is 27, so we are pretty much right there. The high temps are what is pushing the mean up. We are averaging a high of 42 so far this month, vs 35 last Jan and 38 as the long term average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Tonight's low of 18 in NYC makes it the 5th sub 20 degree low of the month and also the 5th of the season. To compare, last winter up to 1/22/11, we had 6 such days (1 in Dec, 5 in Jan by Jan 22). It looks like this morning's low will also be the last sub 20 low of the month... so that would be 5 so far in the winter of 11/12 vs 8 in Dec & Jan of last winter. That IS an interesting comparison. I remember discussions from last year about how it was consistently cold but not severely so. Of course, comparing # of 50+ degree highs from this dec/jan compared to dec/jan of 10/11 would paint a different picture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Not to beat a dead horse, but im just astounded how nassau county was shafted this storm...NYC and suffolk county are now ahead of nassau for the year, for different reasons? How does NYC AND suffolk get more? Usually its one or the other? The theory about orographic lift is all good and well except for the fact that montauk and orient are flat and on the water...next? For a storm with supposedly marginal temps out east, eastern suffolk nearly tripled some totals in nassau...Yet just further WEST in the city, they also doubled nassau totals. Just shocked how nassau never jackpots. usually on the lower end (except january 11, 2011 where we killed it). The radar echoes often die over nassau and then light up again in western suffolk. I just dont get it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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