TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Screw the surface maps post trunaction, that means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 GFS looks great in the long run..if that's the case forget about 01-02 and hello 71-72..Unclew and I number one analog..you'll like Feb in if that's the case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yes, February 18-20, 1972 was quite a storm. Although it changed to a mixbag, during the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks like we should be watching a split flow phase around the 30th with plenty of cold air available and a very favorable pac and a rapidly improving atlantic woof woof!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks like we should be watching a split flow phase around the 30th with plenty of cold air available and a very favorable pac and a rapidly improving atlantic woof woof!!!!!! You are honking big time woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks like we should be watching a split flow phase around the 30th with plenty of cold air available and a very favorable pac and a rapidly improving atlantic woof woof!!!!!! Will you be issuing an *aleet* after the 12z Euro comes in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 GFS seems to want to put a favorable pattern for us for February. Let's see if the ECMWF can agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 GFS seems to want to put a favorable pattern for us for February. Let's see if the ECMWF can agree. And then if they can both hold serve as the timeframe gets into the short term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Strong signal of the Trials storm on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Im literally jumping out of my skin here at what i see developing after this week. Wow. Notice how much Monday has changed over the past few days. Originally progged to surge > +10c 850's with sfc temps nearing 60F, but now it looks like we'll escape a torch (50+) with highs Monday in the 40s. Strong sfc ridge to the north doing its dirty work - probably some ZR to start Sun night/Mon morning for the interior. Beyond that, the pattern is much improved from the past 2 months, which should be sufficient in the best time of year climatologically for snowfall. However, I don't think we'll get any major -NAO block going at least through week 2. The now negative AO and rising PNA should keep us seasonably cold late Jan/early February, which again, will be cold enough for snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Just having the AO in a solid negative state already guarantees that the cold supply will not be too far away and a -NAO usually follows, the +PNA will also provide good pacific assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 If the 12z GEFS is right about Davis Straight -NAO, large PV over Hudson Bay and SE Canada and the +PNA, than will have something potentially significant to watch the Jan 29-31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Notice how much Monday has changed over the past few days. Originally progged to surge > +10c 850's with sfc temps nearing 60F, but now it looks like we'll escape a torch (50+) with highs Monday in the 40s. Strong sfc ridge to the north doing its dirty work - probably some ZR to start Sun night/Mon morning for the interior. Beyond that, the pattern is much improved from the past 2 months, which should be sufficient in the best time of year climatologically for snowfall. However, I don't think we'll get any major -NAO block going at least through week 2. The now negative AO and rising PNA should keep us seasonably cold late Jan/early February, which again, will be cold enough for snow chances. I don't think we'll get a big block either, but maybe a minor block would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Day 5.5 event still showing up on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Day 5.5 event still showing up on the Euro. Miller B threat on the GEFs as well for the same time period. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble500mbHGHTNA120.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble500mbHGHTNA132.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf126.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Miller B threat on the GEFs as well for the same time period. http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA120.gif http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA132.gif http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf126.html Unfortunately, we don't have a decent high in SE Canada. The first low tracking over the Great lakes, isn't good for us either. Edit: Was looking at the 0z Euro. 12z Euro is much better, with the 1024mb high over SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Day 5.5 event still showing up on the Euro. The ECMWF shows this storm as a Snow---->Rain storm, which is a classic 2007-2008 storm. The 12z ECMWF shows an area of disturbed weather around day 5-6 that manages to produce a weak coastal too close to the coast, so it's snow to rain on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 If the pattern does improve as shown on some models for February this winter could easily end up better than both 06-07 and 07-08 and bring us closer to the average... for parts of NE NJ, NYC and Long Island, all that's needed is 1-2 more snowstorms like this one and we already pass these two winters, which is very possible with the improvements starting to show in the pattern for February. It doesn't look like the pattern completely flips to a much colder/snowier one, but even a moderate cold pattern with some snow, which is already an improvement over what we have seen so far, could result in a somewhat decent February and perhaps March for some. Something else that I find interesting for the winter is the gradient. Right now there's already a seasonal snow gradient across the area; NYC and LI I think are somewhere in the 3-8 inch range for the winter totals, maybe a bit more/less, the north/west suburbs are already above 10" and the further inland areas are approaching and/or passing 20 inches for the seasonal total. Unless a big snowstorm slams the southern parts of the area, this winter looks like it could end up as one where the biggest totals could end up to the north/NW of the city, with the lower amounts to the south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 There's no guarantee that February will end up much improved even if models indicate it might. The NAO forecasts are still up in the air, but at least things look more promising than the past couple months prior to today's storm that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 If the pattern does improve as shown on some models for February this winter could easily end up better than both 06-07 and 07-08 and bring us closer to the average... for parts of NE NJ, NYC and Long Island, all that's needed is 1-2 more snowstorms like this one and we already pass these two winters, which is very possible with the improvements starting to show in the pattern for February. It doesn't look like the pattern completely flips to a much colder/snowier one, but even a moderate cold pattern with some snow, which is already an improvement over what we have seen so far, could result in a somewhat decent February and perhaps March for some. Something else that I find interesting for the winter is the gradient. Right now there's already a seasonal snow gradient across the area; NYC and LI I think are somewhere in the 3-8 inch range for the winter totals, maybe a bit more/less, the north/west suburbs are already above 10" and the further inland areas are approaching and/or passing 20 inches for the seasonal total. Unless a big snowstorm slams the southern parts of the area, this winter looks like it could end up as one where the biggest totals could end up to the north/NW of the city, with the lower amounts to the south of the city. Good read and I look forward to what February provides. I italicized the last sentence because isn't this almost always the case (with rare exceptions)?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 If the pattern does improve as shown on some models for February this winter could easily end up better than both 06-07 and 07-08 and bring us closer to the average... for parts of NE NJ, NYC and Long Island, all that's needed is 1-2 more snowstorms like this one and we already pass these two winters, which is very possible with the improvements starting to show in the pattern for February. It doesn't look like the pattern completely flips to a much colder/snowier one, but even a moderate cold pattern with some snow, which is already an improvement over what we have seen so far, could result in a somewhat decent February and perhaps March for some. Something else that I find interesting for the winter is the gradient. Right now there's already a seasonal snow gradient across the area; NYC and LI I think are somewhere in the 3-8 inch range for the winter totals, maybe a bit more/less, the north/west suburbs are already above 10" and the further inland areas are approaching and/or passing 20 inches for the seasonal total. Unless a big snowstorm slams the southern parts of the area, this winter looks like it could end up as one where the biggest totals could end up to the north/NW of the city, with the lower amounts to the south of the city. very true...im sitting at a total of about 4.5 inches for the year...on the low end of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 ... NYC and LI I think are somewhere in the 3-8 inch range for the winter totals, maybe a bit more/less, the north/west suburbs are already above 10" and the further inland areas are approaching and/or passing 20 inches for the seasonal total. ... Huh? Other than the October storm I've had less than 1.5" until today. I have a hard time thinking of that early storm as part of "the season." Kinda like when ski areas include all the piddly events in the fall that really don't count just to bump their seasonal average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Interesting - CAD signature still fairly pronounced through 12z Monday on the 18z GFS. Surface high moves east of Maine by morning, which will warm up the coast, but if we can get light pcpn prior to 09z I could see some ZR. Interior will definitely have to watch Monday morning with sfc temps holding near freezing and light precip. Light ZR is arguably one of the most dangerous set-ups for bad road conditions, largely because folks don't know its there. Also, I find that most who don't know about weather see rain and automatically think everything's fine (somedon't know the concept of freezing rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 120 on the GFS. Develops a secondary . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 lots of potential here, i know its an eternity away, but who cares, we only have 6 weeks give or take of prime winter setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Huh? Other than the October storm I've had less than 1.5" until today. I have a hard time thinking of that early storm as part of "the season." Kinda like when ski areas include all the piddly events in the fall that really don't count just to bump their seasonal average. I did include the October snowstorm for that as I'm considering the seasonal totals, since officially the October storm does count for the winter totals. For the winter months Dec-Feb though, almost the entire region did horribly in terms of snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 lots of potential here, i know its an eternity away, but who cares, we only have 6 weeks give or take of prime winter setup i gotta say like you said end of next week may hold alot of potential as far as a major storm on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 If the 12z GEFS is right about Davis Straight -NAO, large PV over Hudson Bay and SE Canada and the +PNA, than will have something potentially significant to watch the Jan 29-31st. Very strongly agree. The GFS height anomalies are forecasting the movement of arctic air associated with the Polar Vortex within 5 days which is extremely encouraging. This movement takes the arctic air and associated piece of the Polar Vortex from British Columbia, and slides it southeast through Canada to a position very favorable for a few things in our area. First, the cold air source is very good to our north. We shouldn't have a big problem if we were to time a shortwave well. Second, the presence of (albeit weak) ridging into Greenland and the Davis Straight suggest we might have our first help from the Atlantic in a while. And third, the movement of the large vortex from Alaska and British Columbia, occurring as a downstream result of an upper level low over the Sea of Japan, suggests we may see a spike in the PNA as a ridge builds on the West Coast. You have to wonder if there may be an overrunning event towards the end of the month, especially when you look at the GEFS and see some support for a shortwave moving east/northeast from the Southwest US..through the Gulf Coast..and towards the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Very strongly agree. The GFS height anomalies are forecasting the movement of arctic air associated with the Polar Vortex within 5 days which is extremely encouraging. This movement takes the arctic air and associated piece of the Polar Vortex from British Columbia, and slides it southeast through Canada to a position very favorable for a few things in our area. First, the cold air source is very good to our north. We shouldn't have a big problem if we were to time a shortwave well. Second, the presence of (albeit weak) ridging into Greenland and the Davis Straight suggest we might have our first help from the Atlantic in a while. And third, the movement of the large vortex from Alaska and British Columbia, occurring as a downstream result of an upper level low over the Sea of Japan, suggests we may see a spike in the PNA as a ridge builds on the West Coast. You have to wonder if there may be an overrunning event towards the end of the month, especially when you look at the GEFS and see some support for a shortwave moving east/northeast from the Southwest US..through the Gulf Coast..and towards the Mid Atlantic. atleast is there is an overrunning event there should be much more moisture and a nice cold air source to work with too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 atleast is there is an overrunning event there should be much more moisture and a nice cold air source to work with too right? Not too sure about moisture. This is not an El Nino. But, we should see an active jet stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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