MJO812 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Just judging from thicknesses and QPF...I agree with a general 1-3" snowfall from basically Fredericksburg VA on north through DCA and BWI...if you were to take this run verbatim. So the QPF is heavier down there way than it is up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 So the QPF is heavier down there way than it is up this way? Slightly, but the thermal profiles are borderline. Such is life in this pattern -- if you want snow, you're going to have to really teeter on the edge of warmth and probably will change over to rain. It ends up being a 1-2" event up here, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 6z GFS went north and was also warmer with the event for this event. Lets hope it's not a start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 6z GFS went north and was also warmer with the event for this event. Lets hope it's not a start of a trend. Why not, that's how this winter has been. One disaster after the next. It's sad that we can't even get a 1-3" snowfall around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 6z GFS went north and was also warmer with the event for this event. Lets hope it's not a start of a trend. 6z GFS is still an all snow event for up here.. 6" verbatim but we all know it will end up near the canadian border when all is set and done.. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Why not, that's how this winter has been. One disaster after the next. It's sad that we can't even get a 1-3" snowfall around here. Agree. We always had no problem getting 1-3 inches . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Nice Davis Straight Block, could February save the day?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York State. Forecast for this exact location tonight mentions chance for an inch of snow. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 606 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 NYC029-037-063-073-121-172315- /O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120117T2315Z/ GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY- 606 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EST FOR NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS...SOUTHERN NIAGARA... NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES... AT 600 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PENDLETON TO EDEN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AMHERST TO HAMBURG...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York State. Forecast for this exact location tonight mentions chance for an inch of snow. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 606 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 NYC029-037-063-073-121-172315- /O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120117T2315Z/ GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY- 606 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EST FOR NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS...SOUTHERN NIAGARA... NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES... AT 600 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PENDLETON TO EDEN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AMHERST TO HAMBURG...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. What is causing the line of storms to form? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 What is causing the line of storms to form? Some elevated instability and strong frontal convergence. Wind fields also look supportive of marginal organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Some elevated instability and strong frontal convergence. Wind fields also look supportive of marginal organization. Buffalo just gusted to 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What is causing the line of storms to form? Always nice to be in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Buffalo just gusted to 67. Very impressive line of storms for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Always nice to be in the warm sector. There's an interesting temperature contrast as well. Buffalo is in the 40s, while this location not too far east is at 55 degrees, and not too far east of there temps drop back into the 40s. Meanwhile temperatures in northern NJ are still stuck below 45 degrees. The intellicast temperature map shows just how limited the area of warmth is, which is right on top of the line of thunderstorms as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Somerville NJ up from 33F at 7pm to 50F http://www.uswx.com/uswx/local.php?q=-74.663,40.606 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Somerville NJ up from 33F at 7pm to 50F http://www.uswx.com/...=-74.663,40.606 Yea, cold front means business though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro and GFS show a storm around the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looking outside of the snow tomorrow, I'm thinking that a weak squall line with showers and perhaps thunderstorms could affect the area around Monday afternoon/evening... the models are generally consistent with a strong squall line moving through, with a decent surge of warmth ahead of the front bringing temperatures likely into the low to mid 50s in parts of the area, followed by the cold front moving through. The GFS seems to have the most precipitation, although the NAM also seems to have a moderate squall line along with the CMC, and with scenarios like this one that we've seen before, in places where there's more convection perhaps there could also be some thunder. It would be quite interesting going from snow and 20s to thunderstorms in 50s in just 2 days... 12z NAM for what it's worth: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Anyone see this for next week? Thursday Night: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Anyone see this for next week? Thursday Night: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%. a big bag of LOL, dude first deal with this storm first, then worry about next week, next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 a big bag of LOL, dude first deal with this storm first, then worry about next week, next week. haha i know, was just surprised to see it there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Watch out at the end of the month 1/28-31, i see something big around then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 2 day warmup on the GFS and then back to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 2 day warmup on the GFS and then back to cold. Greenland block..day 7!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 the signs are pointing strongly for a major event at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 the signs are pointing strongly for a major event at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Up to this point in the winter, we're pretty much replicating 01-02. It's interesting that the first storm of that winter also occurred on Jan 20th with a large area of 3-6" locally higher across the area. Of course that was more or less the only event of the winter; I don't expect that to be the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Up to this point in the winter, we're pretty much replicating 01-02. It's interesting that the first storm of that winter also occurred on Jan 20th with a large area of 3-6" locally higher across the area. Of course that was more or less the only event of the winter; I don't expect that to be the case here. Im literally jumping out of my skin here at what i see developing after this week. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Wow the GFS is beautiful in the mid to long range. + PNA and -NAO develops in the mid to long range. with blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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