FPizz Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 A picture of my driveway in C NJ. I shoveled some sleet, so the coating of sleet is more noticeable as it contrasts against the black pavement. We actually had snow/sleet here in C NJ before it stopped. I'm interested to see what the 2nd batch of precipitation will Same thing here in piscataway. My temp has risen to 34.7 from 33.6 in the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Central Park reporting light snow at 02Z. White Plains also reporting -SN at 34/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Was snowing here in upper Manhattan. Nothing as of now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I actually have a coating on everything even the streets. I am utterly shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Temps rising, up to 35 and flurries stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Use observation thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I actually have a coating on everything even the streets. I am utterly shocked. The CMC completely nailed the thermal profiles. It was much colder than the rest of the models aloft for NYC and was ridiculed because it was different from the rest. The CMC also nailed the 11/25/10 snow where I got 1-2 hours of snow/sleet, it also nailed 3/21/11, and it nailed this one. It seems like the CMC does especially well setting up where the mixed line will be when a mixed bag to rain is in store for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The CMC completely nailed the thermal profiles. It was much colder than the rest of the models aloft for NYC and was ridiculed because it was different from the rest. The CMC also nailed the 11/25/10 snow where I got 1-2 hours of snow/sleet, it also nailed 3/21/11, and it nailed this one. It seems like the CMC does especially well setting up where the mixed line will be when a mixed bag to rain is in store for the area. RGEM had 2" or so up this way.. Not sure about that but I guess we will see. Once again though the NAM was wayy to warm. 2 times in the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 RGEM for the win...lets be honest, NO other model had a coating for nrothern long island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Obs: 9:30 PM...if anything pleasantly surprising ever happened in my life...I'd die of shock...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Albertson+NY+11507 Take a peak at the rain/snow line, set up right along the LIE...happens alot in situations like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 In the other news... 0z NAM for Thursday is showing a snowier outcome, somewhat similar to that of the 18z GFS, although it still has that dry slot near NYC. That's likely to happen, but hopefully we can still get a dusting or 1/2 inch with that in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Gfs going with a coating to 1" from west to east for Thursday's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Light snowstorm from 102 to 114 hours hours on tonight's GFS. Very weak surface reflection exits off the M/A coast. 850 0c line to about Trenton at it's warmest point. 925mb low closes off around there as well -- so verbatim several hours of light snow on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 For Saturday, GFS has a solid 2"-4" snowfall for our area. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F17%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=117&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 For Saturday, GFS has a solid 2"-4" snowfall for our area. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Well even 2001-2002 had a light snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 I'm becoming increasingly encouraged with the signals towards the very end of the month. The GEFS and to an extent ECMWF ensembles are hinting at a fairly anomalous (+18 to +24dm) height anomaly over Greenland and building towards the Davis Straight. In addition, the weakening and slight retrograde of the Alaskan trough could allow a rise in heights on the West Coast of the US. Such an event would favor a period of amplification/potential storm system on the East Coast in hte period from January 28th-30th. The duration of the pattern shown below remains in question -- but the GEFS hint at moving the height anomalies farther west in the Davis Straight...which would certainly promote chances for wintry precipitation and cold air for several days. We will have to watch the ensembles carefully over the next week or so to see how they trend with these important features. If they start to trend deeper and farther west with the positive anomalies over the North Atlantic into Greenland and the Davis Straight, we might need to get ready to wipe off the cobwebs and get ready for some real winter weather. We will see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Even hour 150 is now snow on gfs. Only yesterday, the Saturday and the period beyond was supposed to be a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Although the warming propagation down to 500mb thus far has favored ridging over Siberia and Asia (and right now over the Aluetians), we are beginning to see more favorable EP Vectors and the warming has continued. Although it may take longer to get where we want it (possibly even anomaly by anomaly over the next few weeks), such an event eventually promotes the development of high latitude blocking. The 70hpa warming is dramatic and now into well-above normal ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 With the clipper Thursday, and possibly Saturday's light event, that's a good start to what has been a dreadful period. These little events are always nice as well. Hopefully the end of month brings about a needed pattern change in order to at least see substantial snow. Awesome post btw john! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The gfs no longer brings an epic torch in the late medium to long range so that's a huge plus. I guess we won't see those low 70s or even low 60s maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 0z GEFS is a little more wetter than the op in regards to the clipper Here it is for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 0z GGEM from ewall. A little enhancment of snow for NYC with the clipper. GGEM is more north and warmer with the overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Those who asked for warmth GGEM has no problems with giving it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Impressive severe weather outbreak over central MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 euro coming in south of 12z for saturday..and obviously colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 euro coming in south of 12z for saturday..and obviously colder.. I heard that DC gets 1-3 inches from the overrunning event on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Quick hitting overrunning precipitation event at 108 hours on the Euro. QPF is very light...but I guess we will take whatever we can get. Very weak surface low. Looks like maybe .10" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I heard that DC gets 1-3 inches from the overrunning event on the Euro. looks like they get in on something..but for us it looks like the gfs. Light precip with a weak low with temperatures supportive of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 I heard that DC gets 1-3 inches from the overrunning event on the Euro. Just judging from thicknesses and QPF...I agree with a general 1-3" snowfall from basically Fredericksburg VA on north through DCA and BWI...if you were to take this run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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