Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Mid January Discussion


earthlight

Recommended Posts

A picture of my driveway in C NJ. I shoveled some sleet, so the coating of sleet is more noticeable as it contrasts against the black pavement. We actually had snow/sleet here in C NJ before it stopped. I'm interested to see what the 2nd batch of precipitation will

Same thing here in piscataway. My temp has risen to 34.7 from 33.6 in the last hour or so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I actually have a coating on everything even the streets. I am utterly shocked.

The CMC completely nailed the thermal profiles. It was much colder than the rest of the models aloft for NYC and was ridiculed because it was different from the rest.

The CMC also nailed the 11/25/10 snow where I got 1-2 hours of snow/sleet, it also nailed 3/21/11, and it nailed this one. It seems like the CMC does especially well setting up where the mixed line will be when a mixed bag to rain is in store for the area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The CMC completely nailed the thermal profiles. It was much colder than the rest of the models aloft for NYC and was ridiculed because it was different from the rest.

The CMC also nailed the 11/25/10 snow where I got 1-2 hours of snow/sleet, it also nailed 3/21/11, and it nailed this one. It seems like the CMC does especially well setting up where the mixed line will be when a mixed bag to rain is in store for the area.

RGEM had 2" or so up this way.. Not sure about that but I guess we will see.

Once again though the NAM was wayy to warm. 2 times in the last week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm becoming increasingly encouraged with the signals towards the very end of the month. The GEFS and to an extent ECMWF ensembles are hinting at a fairly anomalous (+18 to +24dm) height anomaly over Greenland and building towards the Davis Straight. In addition, the weakening and slight retrograde of the Alaskan trough could allow a rise in heights on the West Coast of the US. Such an event would favor a period of amplification/potential storm system on the East Coast in hte period from January 28th-30th. The duration of the pattern shown below remains in question -- but the GEFS hint at moving the height anomalies farther west in the Davis Straight...which would certainly promote chances for wintry precipitation and cold air for several days. We will have to watch the ensembles carefully over the next week or so to see how they trend with these important features. If they start to trend deeper and farther west with the positive anomalies over the North Atlantic into Greenland and the Davis Straight, we might need to get ready to wipe off the cobwebs and get ready for some real winter weather. We will see..

f324.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although the warming propagation down to 500mb thus far has favored ridging over Siberia and Asia (and right now over the Aluetians), we are beginning to see more favorable EP Vectors and the warming has continued. Although it may take longer to get where we want it (possibly even anomaly by anomaly over the next few weeks), such an event eventually promotes the development of high latitude blocking. The 70hpa warming is dramatic and now into well-above normal ranges.

0Lr7V.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...