NYCSuburbs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The other short range models such as the HRRR and RR, now coming into range, also show light frozen precipitation in northern NJ around 2-3z (9-10 PM): Perhaps a bit of snow could fall at the start, but with 850mb temps quickly warming above freezing, sleet would be more likely to fall after about 2-3z, with a changeover towards 12-1 AM to rain for NYC and its suburbs while the interior areas see several hours of light freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Is there a fire west of Atlantic City, because I am seeing persistent northward moving returns on KDIX and TPHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like the 18z NAM trended warmer in the upper levels. 12z had the 850 freezing line NE of the city between 00z and 03z. 18z NAM now has the 850 freezing line NE of the city between 21z and 00z 12z NAM had surface temps rising above freezing from SW to NW from ~ 03z to ~09z. 18z NAM still changes over SE sections about the same but holds onto sub freezing surface temps far NW till between 18z and 21z which is about the same as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like the 18z NAM trended warmer in the upper levels. 12z had the 850 freezing line NE of the city between 00z and 03z. 18z NAM now has the 850 freezing line NE of the city between 21z and 00z 12z NAM had surface temps rising above freezing from SW to NW from ~ 03z to ~09z. 18z NAM still changes over SE sections about the same but holds onto sub freezing surface temps far NW till between 18z and 21z which is about the same as 12z. time to start praying for Saturday, althought for me, it would be the worst possible day. My son's 1st birthday is Saturday and I've got a reservation at a restaurant with people travelling long distances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 With temps hovering around freezing and dew points in the single digits to lower teens, I can't see how it will start off as just strictly rain in the Edison area. I wouldn't be surprise to see some ice before it changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I do expect "freezing" precip and quite a bit of it, but not too much in the way of "frozen" precip. Looks like there could be an extended period of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 It's interesting to see the models backing off the magnitude of the warm up in the 6-10 day that they were advertising just a few days ago. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 SW wind is blasting off the ocean here... From a low of 13 right to mid 30's and rain. Winter 0f 11/12 continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 SW wind is blasting off the ocean here... From a low of 13 right to mid 30's and rain. Winter 0f 11/12 continues... Up to 35 here now. The ocean is still pretty mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Up to 35 here now. The ocean is still pretty mild. Late December-like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Up to 35 here now. The ocean is still pretty mild. Isn't the ocean temp around 39-40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Late December-like... Yeah,the polar bear club will be happy when they take their dip in a few weeks. Isn't the ocean temp around 39-40? Upper 40's now along the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Upper 40's now along the South Shore. Yea look like a tongue of warmer sea temps around that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like snow on the GFS at 114 hours with a 1012mb surface low off the M/A coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 18Z RGEM Total Snow. Don't know why the RGEM, a normally warm model, has 5 mm snow (liquid equivalent) for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I'm skeptical, on how the models are handling the warmth across the CONUS, in the long range. The 6-10 day the pattern on the 12z GFS and GEFS looks similar to what we saw the last 10 days of November. Huge, deep vortex over Alaska/NW Canada and another deep low near Greenland. The only difference may be that there is little more ridging being shown up into the Hudson Bay, this time around. That might cause a trough or cut-off low over SE Canada. That might keep New England at least, from seeing all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 18Z RGEM Total Snow. Don't know why the RGEM, a normally warm model, has 5 mm snow (liquid equivalent) for NYC. The 18z NAM was similar, with an inch of snow/sleet even down towards my area. You can see that it is picking up on the warmer thermal profiles near the coast, but still bringing an inch of wintry precip to parts of SE NY and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 This is a very strong signal for a major/crippling ZR event for NNJ/NYC/LI and SNE area the last full week of January in the 1/25 to 1/28 timeframe. Hope this does not verify, but the ECMWF idea is very worrisome for crippling ice event being indicated. All potential, hopefully not realized. Best ice storm signal for somewhere since the mid 90's. Has sort of the Quebec and NNE ZR event from 1998 feeling to it in my opinion. Arctic high pinned in southern Quebec and 850's above zero should be concerning to all of the mets tracking these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Interesting to see the 18z rgem with 5mm of precip as snow tonight from LGA on north. That would be a nice 1"-3" type snowfall. Rgem is almost always a little too warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 As it stands now it looks like a general 1" snowfall with some icing on top. Someone in CT could get 2-3".. Should be an interesting evening. 28*/12* currently up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Interesting to see the 18z rgem with 5mm of precip as snow tonight from LGA on north. That would be a nice 1"-3" type snowfall. Rgem is almost always a little too warm too. I doubt it .The 850mb 0C line is over Northern NJ as of 23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Rgem is out of its gord 850's are rising fast, and surface temps are up too. Anyone expecting to see any snow is wishcasting it south of snywx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 925mb temps are still well below freezing. So we could see sleet in NYC and coastal areas, with any precip that falls early tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 I wonder if the RGEM algorithm is counting sleet as snow. The forecast soundings on the NAM are good for sleet for a few hours even in the immediate suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 925mb temps are still well below freezing. So we could see sleet in NYC and coastal areas, with any precip that falls early tonight: It makes a lot of sense how we would see sleet. 850mb temps have been modeled to quickly go above freezing, as we're now seeing with the 850mb line near NYC. The 925mb temps as you showed are much colder with surface temps near freezing, so I expect at least a brief period of sleet for most of northern New Jersey, possibly including NYC, with the onset of precipitation in 2-3 hours or so. With the sleet, places that see it for long enough could see a coating, but outside of CT which has a better chance of starting out with snow, I don't see how there's going to be over an inch of snow out of this, if even that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I wonder if the RGEM algorithm is counting sleet as snow. The forecast soundings on the NAM are good for sleet for a few hours even in the immediate suburbs. It probably does. Only thing that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 It makes a lot of sense how we would see sleet. 850mb temps have been modeled to quickly go above freezing, as we're now seeing with the 850mb line near NYC. The 925mb temps as you showed are much colder with surface temps near freezing, so I expect at least a brief period of sleet for most of northern New Jersey, possibly including NYC, with the onset of precipitation in 2-3 hours or so. With the sleet, places that see it for long enough could see a coating, but outside of CT which has a better chance of starting out with snow, I don't see how there's going to be over an inch of snow out of this, if even that. I agree. I wouldn't be suprised to some flakes mixed in at the start too. But I think it would be mostly sleet accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Interesting to note that several of the gefs members at 18z throw precip back to the coast from the clipper. More then half of them are wetter then the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I wonder if the RGEM algorithm is counting sleet as snow. The forecast soundings on the NAM are good for sleet for a few hours even in the immediate suburbs. Nope. 18Z RGEM Total Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 It definitely looks like a period of sleet mostly N of the City. Transitioning quickly to rain near the shore and toward the SW, with accumulating sleet to the NE. Some freezing rain/drizzle far to the north and in the higher elevations. The soundings support some snow esp far to the NE, but the UVVs are not very strong and might not overcome a fairly deep warm layer (though not very warm until after 6z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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