earthlight Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 A pleasant surprise. Again shows the complexity and challenge of forecasting the weather even in the shortest of ranges. I wouldn't call it a surprise, the NAM had this nailed at 60+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I wouldn't call it a surprise, the NAM had this nailed at 60+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Yes. But that is one model and the confidence to place snow flurries in the forecast waited on radar returns, surface observations and nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 I'll tell you what, seeing this steady light snow definitely reminded me of how much I love this stuff. Amazing how it almost instantly creates an entirely new scene...transforming a boring night into something slightly more exciting and wintry, no matter how little snow it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I'll tell you what, seeing this steady light snow definitely reminded me of how much I love this stuff. Amazing how it almost instantly creates an entirely new scene...transforming a boring night into something slightly more exciting and wintry, no matter how little snow it may be. earthlight, what are your thoughts for February? any chance of turning this winter around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Terrific forecast by the SPF WRF yet again I must say it did pretty much hit it spot on. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I'll tell you what, seeing this steady light snow definitely reminded me of how much I love this stuff. Amazing how it almost instantly creates an entirely new scene...transforming a boring night into something slightly more exciting and wintry, no matter how little snow it may be. Agree. Your passion will translate into you becoming one hell of a meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Yes. But that is one model and the confidence to place snow flurries in the forecast waited on radar returns, surface observations and nowcasting. It definitely handled this event nicely though going back to 60+ hours as Earthlight said, and it was also consistent with favoring the NYC area for the best chance of snow showers as with the Thursday 12z run posted below. The NMM also had this going back to its 0z run yesterday. It was uncertain what the exact coverage area of the snow showers would be, which we saw today with the nowcasting as you noted, although the fact that it snowed somewhere in the area was not a complete surprise. Upton's discussion mentioned the flurry potential yesterday, and Mt. Holly was even bolder, stating last night that the "far north" could see a decent snow shower today. It was definitely an interesting forecasting experience though and I hope we get another one of these isolated snow shower events sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Sucks when this is an "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 On the bright side... at least we have another drizzle/flurry potential for Friday, although it's modeled to mostly focus on New England. That would be more likely, but we can always hope it ends up far south enough to bring additional snow showers here before the torch comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 Here comes another band over Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Here comes another band over Northern NJ. Earthlight special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 By the way, Mt. Holly has issued a WWA for NW NJ for the system tonight into early tomorrow morning from 9 PM tonight to 9 AM tomorrow. I am in this advisory, although I am in Central/Southern Somerset County, I feel that the effects will be mainly confined to Northern Somerset County, although I could see a brief period of sleet/freezing rain where I am in C NJ. The CAD needs to be especially monitored, because this cool air at the surface is not going to go away so easily without a fight, especially considering it is our coldest airmass of the season. Should be REALLY interesting to see where the rain/mix line sets up. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 900 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 900 AM TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE AND NORTHAMPTON. THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SUSSEX, WARREN, MORRIS, HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET. * HAZARD TYPES...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ICE COVERED AND SLIPPERY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 By the way, Mt. Holly has issued a WWA for NW NJ for the system tonight into early tomorrow morning from 9 PM tonight to 9 AM tomorrow. I am in this advisory, although I am in Central/Southern Somerset County, I feel that the effects will be mainly confined to Northern Somerset County, although I could see a brief period of sleet/freezing rain where I am in C NJ. The CAD needs to be especially monitored, because this cool air at the surface is not going to go away so easily without a fight, especially considering it is our coldest airmass of the season. Should be REALLY interesting to see where the rain/mix line sets up. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 900 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 900 AM TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE AND NORTHAMPTON. THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SUSSEX, WARREN, MORRIS, HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET. * HAZARD TYPES...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ICE COVERED AND SLIPPERY. Upton issued a similar advisory: NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 419 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET ALONG WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S. * TIMING...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLIPPERY DRIVING AND WALKING...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. MOTORISTS NEED TO USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE ICY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GFS still has light ice/snow for areas north and west of the city this evening. It even starts the city itself with a mixed big for a very brief time, around 8pmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 if we're gonna get any frozen north and west, it's going to be a short window.. by 12Z it's too warm... 6Z doesn't look like any precip is getting going yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 these light icing events rarely work out, and as jay poiints out, the setup is extrememly limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GFS now pops a low further south for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GFS brings light precip to the NYC area, perhaps a coating, for Friday. Eastern LI receives about 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Overunning potential is pretty good for Saturday/Sunday. GFS skims our area but was very close to bringing a decent snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GFS came close with the Saturday event... We'll see whether the trend is to improve snow chances or not, but the set up is marginal in this time frame and it could just as easily fall as rain or snow to our south/north instead. Regardless of that, just the fact that the potential for some snow exists already makes Saturday somewhat more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12Z RGEM Total Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12Z RGEM forecast meteograms for Central Park. http://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gem_reg&lat=40.78062824516863&lon=-73.9659125010254&tz=-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GGEM has an enhancement of snow on LI with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Since even a coating to an inch would be a blessing this winter, I would gladly take it. I can't believe it only flurried twice since late October, just unbelievable and its mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GGEM has an enhancement of snow on LI with the clipper. GGEM sends the Saturday low further north than the GFS, giving upstate New York the snowstorm and NYC some potential precip type problems, unlike the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 GGEM sends the Saturday low further north than the GFS, giving upstate New York the snowstorm and NYC some potential precip type problems, unlike the GFS. The 12z GGEM is much further south than the 0z run. The 0z run took the low across SNE. It all depends on where the low ends up and how much cold air is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 RGEM looks good for some N/W areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Both of the high-res models have a coating of snow (maybe sleet) in Northern New Jersey and most areas away from the city and coast. Given the low level cold, I would think sleet or freezing rain is definitely more likely than actual snow flakes with this system. Forecast soundings show a very pronounced mid level warm air advection signal. You can see, on the NAM, that the warm air advection is even working into the 850mb level, despite a very cold surface. 850 tempeartures are +1 to +3 with surface temperatures near or below freezing over much of Northern NJ, Southeast NY, and CT. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/f18.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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