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Wxrisk calling for historic pattern flip


Ji

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I don't generally read DT's stuff but I thought he did a good job explaining what could go wrong and right with the upcoming pattern potential without making a specific call for a history pattern flip like Ji claims. Specifically this is what DT said at the end of his blog post explaining -EPO/-WPO...

All that being said let me be clear here… I am not in any way forecasting a historically severe prolonged six week period of extreme cold… At least not yet. Nor my forecasting a historic snowstorm for Eastern North Carolina. But as we can now will clearly see the stratospheric warming is real it IS impacting the entire pattern and things are rapidly changing. We are going to see the entire AO get forced southward but the only question is how far to the south.

The 0z JAN 18 EURO shows the trend nicely…

00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240-150x150.gif

of course there are STILL lot of things that can go WRONG here… for example IF the -WPO decides to slide back WEST into central Siberia that could be problem. If the NAO goes Neutral and does NOT go negative… THAT would also lead to a different result.

Source - www.wxrisk.com
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He has his grandmas balls...this is bold

http://www.wxrisk.com/

Interesting writeup, but I'd like to see some more discussion about how and why he thinks this is all due to the stratospheric warming event. I am not arguing his reasoning or results, but as a reader it came across like he just threw it in there. Regardless, he didn't call for a historic change. He said that he was only discussing "potential". I know this because it was in all caps.

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I don't generally read DT's stuff but I thought he did a good job explaining what could go wrong and right with the upcoming pattern potential without making a specific call for a history pattern flip like Ji claims. Specifically this is what DT said at the end of his blog post explaining -EPO/-WPO...

Source - www.wxrisk.com The Euro

Fixed

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Unfortunately a pattern change doesn't mean you'll get any snow, because there is more than one type of snowless pattern in the Northeast. A pattern change Warm and Snowless #1 to Warm and Snowless#2 maybe in the works for us while other parts of the globe experience a dramatic swing.

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-WPO by itself is not a harbinger of cold to the east...but a -WPO progressing east and morphing into an -EPO, especially when talking about 570dm+ heights near the Arctic circle, is what more than one historic arctic outbreak was made of, since we are not only talking about arctic air, but the Siberian kind... Unfortunately, so far, modeling has the ridge slowly retrograding ...enhancing the -PNA trough and associated jet, with a more zonal flow across the CONUS. This kind of arctic air is very dense, so some of it will surely spill south, but right now it looks nothing like a major arctic outbreak.

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