CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I wish there was a met here whose job didn't require them to use the GFS. I'd like to see a met make a forecast for clients/public sector /whomever..not use anything GFS related over a 2-3 week period. You could use every other piece of available guidance, just not the GFS or GEFS or GFS MOS etc...and see how your forecasts would be as opposed to when you do use it. That would be an interesting study to do I think. You can't discard a piece of guidance like that. That's why we have it. Knowing the bias of each model helps make a better forecast. Th euro is not the end all by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If the patriots lose on Saturday and there is no snow in sight, I fully expect suicides. That will be a long ride home from Gillette for me. I might even hop out of the car while moving. Wait until your on the Mystic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 http://www.americanw...32#entry1254532 Right, there isn't much on the table except for something hopefully later this weekend, which looks shaky. The talk about the 11-15 day has exhausted its options I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 You can't discard a piece of guidance like that. That's why we have it. Knowing the bias of each model helps make a better forecast. Th euro is not the end all by any means. I know..I didn't mean just the Euro...I just think the met community as a whole relies way too heavily on GFS based products. I think it would be interesting if someone used all other guidance except that and if their forecasts would be better/worse/same etc. over a set time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I can't recall a winter pattern this brutal since at least January 2007. I even feel that this is worse than January 2002 when we at least had some things to track. 1/6-7/02 featured a Miller A storm that meso banded Albany with 15-20" of snow. I got dry slotted badly in that one as the H7 low went right over me, but picked up about 5-6" of upslope the next day with the upper level low and CAA. A week later we had a storm that nuked in the Gulf of Maine and went sub 970 (or was it 960?) in the Maritimes. It was a rain to wind whipped blue snow bomb for ENE, especially Maine. I remember cloudy, windy and 31° here in the Berks that day as the precip shield never made it out this far and kept thinking "what if this thing came a tad further west?" Undoubtably this area would've been smoked that day as we were one of the few areas that was cold enough initially for an all snow event that day. I also remember some decent clippers and SWFEs that winter that brought some snow to the Berks, CNE, and NNE. I also remember a couple of 6-10" deals here in mid-March 2002. While it was an all around dead ratter, I'll take it any day over this pattern since we at least had some chances. That's what we've not had this winter: chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I know..I didn't mean just the Euro...I just think the met community as a whole relies way too heavily on GFS based products. I think it would be interesting if someone used all other guidance except that and if their forecasts would be better/worse/same etc. over a set time period The euro people are wh*res with their data. We cannot get products like we get through NCEP, so we have to use what we have accessible to us. Many on air mets can see the euro, so if they choose not to use it, that's their fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 FYI: The GFS is about to get owned by the Euro with the handling of the trough, and the last two cutoffs... so hopefully Tip and SnowNH lay off the Euro bashing because of one fluke run that showed them getting snow that didn't verify and made them cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 The euro people are wh*res with their data. We cannot get products like we get through NCEP, so we have to use what we have accessible to us. Many on air mets can see the euro, so if they choose not to use it, that's their fault. weatherunderground FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 FYI: The GFS is about to get owned by the Euro with the handling of the trough, and the last two cutoffs... so hopefully Tip and SnowNH lay off the Euro bashing because of one fluke run that showed them getting snow that didn't verify and made them cry LOL, you mean that Miller A it had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 While of course I prefer cold and snow, mild days for those of us who need to walk places to get errands done are pleasant. I loved yesterday while hating it at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'll bet I see a cumulative inch or less throughout the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 As far as I'm concerned, we still have 2-3 threats including this weekend, through the 22 or so. The weekend one is shaky, but offers maybe a clipper like deal or hopefully some redevlopment se of the Cape. After that, it will depend on how quick the ridge in AK builds, and how strong the trough out west is. It seems like the ensembles like something near the 17th and 21st give or take a day. Ptype could be anything this far out. Maybe one is rain and follow up snow...or both wet and wintry..I don't know...but those seems like the dates that models are seeing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hopefully most folks can see past the troll posts above. It's a shame that kind of stuff is allowed. That is the kind of stuff that should be deleted, not banter posts It definitely goes both ways... some folks only post the runs and maps that show cold, and some only show what is warm. Everyone knows where everyone else stands on this sort of stuff. You just need to read about 2 pages of any thread to see who thinks it will stay warm and who thinks it will stay cold. Honestly there are arguements for both sides so its not worth calling one post a troll post over another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 All I know is the squirrels are liers...bastards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't mind people using the GFS sometimes, but I do think its pretty bad when people use it only when it shows what they want. If 18z or 00z has nonstop cold and snow until 384h, then you won't hear a peep. Yeah but then the cold/snow camp weenies come out saying "see, see we are going to get 100" of snow in the next 16 days." Then the next run is warm and it starts all over again from the other side. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Is the Thursday storm gonna be all snow now for NNE? No... where do you see this stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 LOL, you mean that Miller A it had? Yeah, and since then the two of them insisted on the Euro being so far beneath the all powerful GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boolean Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 okay the model talk gets boring and confusing after a while.... here is the big question: what is the percentage chance that bos receives a >4" snow storm before 1/31? climatology alone would suggest a decent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Sam, that quote in your sig is definitely more apt for this season. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 okay the model talk gets boring and confusing after a while.... here is the big question: what is the percentage chance that bos receives a >4" snow storm before 1/31? climatology alone would suggest a decent chance. ~20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 How do you know the Broncos will not win?, do you not believe in jesus. Shame on you. They'll need his help being a 9 point home dog ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 You know, if we are going to retrograde, having the trough go into the GOA might help pop ridging across the west like the GEFS have. Even the EC hinted at it, but I also think this is gambling with money we do not have right now. However, the option is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 You know, if we are going to retrograde, having the trough go into the GOA might help pop ridging across the west like the GEFS have. Even the EC hinted at it, but I also think this is gambling with money we do not have right now. However, the option is there. Toss the dice and hit me http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q2mFiN7GIc&feature=fvwrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 You've missed the point entirely. It has nothing to do with the ultimate solution, it has to do with it coming back to the rough pattern we are already in which is transient cold bookended by either storms that are surpressed (passing during the cold shots) or inside runners. Without blocking, that's what happens. Gone from this run is the endless winter, and I think that's going to verify. I don't think most of us were calling for endless winter...we have said that we are having a distinct shift in the PAC pattern that has brought endless NON-winter. We listed the caveats that will prevent us from seeing January 2011 again...we don't have a -NAO and the PNA could flex too negative at times...but this pattern is different than the one we have been in. A roller coaster pattern with more legit snow chances would be distinctly different than almost wall to wall warmth with virtually no snow chances. It doesn't have to go from extreme warmth to extreme cold to be a pattern shift. I still don't see how using a 276h GFS prog means anything. If I wanted to wishcast endless winter, I could have posted how the 00z Euro went balls cold after D6 and looked to continue well beyond the 240h end of the run versus the day before which showed a torch coming back...but I know that is pointless because an operational run is so variant beyond day 5 or 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Sam, that quote in your sig is definitely more apt for this season. lol lol I know it! I gotta start keeping an eye out for any better quotes ... which I'm sure this winter will offer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 lol I know it! I gotta start keeping an eye out for any better quotes ... which I'm sure this winter will offer... If these next couple of weeks fail to produce i think you will have plenty to choose from.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If these next couple of weeks fail to produce i think you will have plenty to choose from.. People shouldn't expect a bunch of snow in the next couple weeks. There might be a couple threats after D5...but the pattern isn't obviously snowy. It has its chances. There should continue to be chances beyond the 2 week time period...as even when the block retrogrades a bit, it should still be producing some cross polar flow. Hopefully we get some events to track, but people shouldn't be expecting 20-30" of snow from 3 or 4 events between now and Jan 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'll bet I see a cumulative inch or less throughout the next two weeks. I'd say that the chances are greater than not, above 50% that is the case as of this moment, mainly because I think the pattern is reloading towards a new version of suc* by 1/20ish. It definitely goes both ways... some folks only post the runs and maps that show cold, and some only show what is warm. Everyone knows where everyone else stands on this sort of stuff. You just need to read about 2 pages of any thread to see who thinks it will stay warm and who thinks it will stay cold. Honestly there are arguements for both sides so its not worth calling one post a troll post over another. If we based in on 2011 track records alone, well it's no contest. Cold and snowy predictions have failed. And in reality, what's on the side of cold and snow being anyting more than transient again aside of the WORDS of some forecasters? I don't think most of us were calling for endless winter...we have said that we are having a distinct shift in the PAC pattern that has brought endless NON-winter. We listed the caveats that will prevent us from seeing January 2011 again...we don't have a -NAO and the PNA could flex too negative at times...but this pattern is different than the one we have been in. A roller coaster pattern with more legit snow chances would be distinctly different than almost wall to wall warmth with virtually no snow chances. It doesn't have to go from extreme warmth to extreme cold to be a pattern shift. I still don't see how using a 276h GFS prog means anything. If I wanted to wishcast endless winter, I could have posted how the 00z Euro went balls cold after D6 and looked to continue well beyond the 240h end of the run versus the day before which showed a torch coming back...but I know that is pointless because an operational run is so variant beyond day 5 or 6. It's no more or less ridiculous than relying on long range GEFS or the Euro. They've all been consistently too cold this winter and in the end the warmth has won out over and over, so wouldn't it be somewhat logical to error on the side of it being warmer when that has been the undeniable truth for 6 full months? The change has been ten days away for 2 months, the gradient pattern with SWFE's has been on the horizon since we were eating Turkey and watching the Lions. If it's cold for 5-10 days there will be people declaring the major pattern change took place when in reality we saw a bobble and increased instability and a pattern morph into another pattern. Calling it like I see it, I may well be wrong but I think we're all done with this major "change" by 1/22ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Euro still brushing the s coast with some QPF prior to dawn Tuesday. Hopefully soem folks down there see a little snow. I could see some very light precip there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's no more or less ridiculous than relying on long range GEFS or the Euro. They've all been consistently too cold this winter and in the end the warmth has won out over and over, so wouldn't it be somewhat logical to error on the side of it being warmer when that has been the undeniable truth for 6 full months? Yes its more ridiculous IMHO. We'll just agree to disagree on that. Ensembles have more skill than the OP runs that far out. You don't use them to take their temperature verbatim, you use them to look at key features in the hemispheric pattern...its why a lot of us went "oh crap" when we saw the AK vortex of death looking to park itself on the ensembles when we got to early December. Having it finally dislodge for a period is a change. Whether it produces some good snow events or not...we don't know. How long the pattern holds decently is a question as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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