CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Kevin I wouldn't say legit. That storm around the 16-17th or so could very well be rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 He may be one of many Meh... sorta hoping my 1979 fetish realizes at this point. A short winter is not that fun. Kids will be sweating and stinking up my lab before long, so if we can get them home for summer vacation a few days early, that would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 GFS coming back to reality now in the D7-8 range. I95 epic cold now NE cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Here come the GFS humpers. Everyday at the same time they all come out , hump and then go away for 6 hours and then come back.. Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Lol wow the last few pages were pathetic. DT is right about some signs of a -NAO in the making. It's been a positive trend on the Euro and GFS for a couple days now. Let's see what comes of it. Still a ways to go in figuring out the next seven days. Much depends on the evolution of the big trough diving into the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Here come the GFS humpers. Everyday at the same time they all come out , hump and then go away for 6 hours and then come back.. Yawn People are just concerned about the next two weeks. There are still questions and it could end up being pretty lackluster. At this point, just accept what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Lol wow the last few pages were pathetic. DT is right about some signs of a -NAO in the making. It's been a positive trend on the Euro and GFS for a couple days now. Let's see what comes of it. Still a ways to go in figuring out the next seven days. Much depends on the evolution of the big trough diving into the conus. You see anything interesting discussing? I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 People are just concerned about the next two weeks. There are still questions and it could end up being pretty lackluster. At this point, just accept what we can get. Have said this a few times, good pattern for western lakes, upper MS valley. Blows for us mostly. The pattern change talk is mass hysteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Posting a hr 276 GFS op isn't going to help your arguement. Whether it happens or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hopefully most folks can see past the troll posts above. It's a shame that kind of stuff is allowed. That is the kind of stuff that should be deleted, not banter posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 548 thickness all the way to quebec with that cutter, Was 800 miles east last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 People should remember that it's not only us. This has been awful winter wise nationwide with the lowest USA snow cover perhaps in history for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Here come the GFS humpers. Everyday at the same time they all come out , hump and then go away for 6 hours and then come back.. Yawn I don't mind people using the GFS sometimes, but I do think its pretty bad when people use it only when it shows what they want. If 18z or 00z has nonstop cold and snow until 384h, then you won't hear a peep. Regardless, I don't think the pattern is changing to nonstop cold and snow anyway...I think we've said most of the time that we are going from a horrific pattern to a "give us a chance" pattern. I do not see us going to an endless warmth pattern like we've been in for the most part since Dec 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Posting a hr 276 GFS op isn't going to help your arguement. Whether it happens or not. If we went back to mid November I think I've got a decent track record. I haven't bought into any of this and have been pretty clear as to why. I don't see this as a historic, monumental, or even a fundamental shift. It's a movement from an existing pattern to another one that is somewhat less warm and probably more stormy. It's an increase in instability that may result in a more favorable pattern eventually or maybe not. The fact that I suspect we see models pull away from the colder solutions in the later ranges won't surprise me. That's why I posted it. If you went back and looked at the GFS runs on average from mid to late November and again in December, the overall theme of colder shots muting out and then a constant return to something "else" in the later periods has almost always been there. As that later period approaches the footsteps get a litlte louder. If I hear someone talk about a gradient pattern setting up based on the GEFS or EC Ens for the 10th time since 11/15....that's no worse IMO than posting that map as a general point that the model bailed on the cold at least for now...and went back to the cold, warm storm, cold, warm storm this RUN. Was it intended to be a forecast, no, it was intended to show that 12 hours ago it was a much colder, wintry solution and now it's popping a cutter. It would not surprise me at all to see the end result in that general time period to be a low pressure over or west of us. JMHO, because that's been the general trend this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The GFS does have the Jan 16 event...its almost a late bloomer Miller B...inverted trough. That has been on and off guidance a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't mind people using the GFS sometimes, but I do think its pretty bad when people use it only when it shows what they want. If 18z or 00z has nonstop cold and snow until 384h, then you won't hear a peep. Regardless, I don't think the pattern is changing to nonstop cold and snow anyway...I think we've said most of the time that we are going from a horrific pattern to a "give us a chance" pattern. I do not see us going to an endless warmth pattern like we've been in for the most part since Dec 1. Right we're heading into a pattern which going to be w/o a doubt more wintry than the last 45 days. Whether that means a few snow/ice events , then a rainer followed by cold/dry or whatever..it's a much more favorable pattern. The GFS stuff just makes me laugh it's gotten so absurd with the same 2-3 people using it to base all their posts on. If we can get a couple winter storm events over the next 2-3 weeks..I think we would all sign up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If we went back to mid November I think I've got a decent track record. I haven't bought into any of this and have been pretty clear as to why. I don't see this as a historic, monumental, or even a fundamental shift. It's a movement from an existing pattern to another one that is somewhat less warm and probably more stormy. It's an increase in instability that may result in a more favorable pattern eventually or maybe not. The fact that I suspect we see models pull away from the colder solutions in the later ranges won't surprise me. That's why I posted it. If you went back and looked at the GFS runs on average from mid to late November and again in December, the overall theme of colder shots muting out and then a constant return to something "else" in the later periods has almost always been there. As that later period approaches the footsteps get a litlte louder. Was it intended to be a forecast, no, it was intended to show that 12 hours ago it was a much colder, wintry solution and now it's popping a cutter. It would not surprise me at all to see the end result in that general time period to be a low pressure over or west of us. JMHO, because that's been the general trend this winter. Well I did say it could be a milder storm. I just don't see the need for posting that, especially since it could be gone in about 6hrs. Anyways, hope you get some OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If we went back to mid November I think I've got a decent track record. I haven't bought into any of this and have been pretty clear as to why. I don't see this as a historic, monumental, or even a fundamental shift. It's a movement from an existing pattern to another one that is somewhat less warm and probably more stormy. It's an increase in instability that may result in a more favorable pattern eventually or maybe not. The fact that I suspect we see models pull away from the colder solutions in the later ranges won't surprise me. That's why I posted it. If you went back and looked at the GFS runs on average from mid to late November and again in December, the overall theme of colder shots muting out and then a constant return to something "else" in the later periods has almost always been there. As that later period approaches the footsteps get a litlte louder. Was it intended to be a forecast, no, it was intended to show that 12 hours ago it was a much colder, wintry solution and now it's popping a cutter. It would not surprise me at all to see the end result in that general time period to be a low pressure over or west of us. JMHO, because that's been the general trend this winter. Using a 276h prog vs 300h 24 hours ago is useless though. I will guarantee that in the next 2 or 3 days, that 276h prog will be a cold snowstorm or a frigid artcic shot...when you are talking about an OP run that far out, the variance far outweighs any "trend" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hopefully most folks can see past the troll posts above. It's a shame that kind of stuff is allowed. That is the kind of stuff that should be deleted, not banter posts As oppossed to your entirely useless posts repeating the same dribble fifteen times since 6am? Let's check back in around 1/20 and see what's shaking. Then you can tell me why I was wrong in not buying into an epic winter onslaught but instead a more stormy version of the cold, warm storm, cold pattern we've already been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 As oppossed to your entirely useless posts repeating the same dribble fifteen times since 6am? Let's check back in around 1/20 and see what's shaking. Then you can tell me why I was wrong in not buying into an epic winter onslaught but instead a more stormy version of the cold, warm storm, cold pattern we've already been in. Have you figured out how to accept friend requests on FB yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Using a 276h prog vs 300h 24 hours ago is useless though. I will guarantee that in the next 2 or 3 days, that 276h prog will be a cold snowstorm or a frigid artcic shot...when you are talking about an OP run that far out, the variance far outweighs any "trend" You've missed the point entirely. It has nothing to do with the ultimate solution, it has to do with it coming back to the rough pattern we are already in which is transient cold bookended by either storms that are surpressed (passing during the cold shots) or inside runners. Without blocking, that's what happens. Gone from this run is the endless winter, and I think that's going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Is the Thursday storm gonna be all snow now for NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Well I did say it could be a milder storm. I just don't see the need for posting that, especially since it could be gone in about 6hrs. Anyways, hope you get some OES. Scott just to be clear, not implying we see anything in that period. It to me is much more about the return on this run to the seesaw type pattern we've be in and the note that what we may be seeing as a change is an increasing frequency of storms as s/w are shaken out. We'll see, it's not worth arguing over. I am betting this is the first volley back towards the "cold has a defined end" on the models sometime plus/minus 1/22. That's all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 474 thickness in canada now that is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 You see anything interesting discussing? I don't. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31686-next-weeks-storm-changes-snow-threats-beyond-part-2/page__p__1254532#entry1254532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I wish there was a met here whose job didn't require them to use the GFS. I'd like to see a met make a forecast for clients/public sector /whomever..not use anything GFS related over a 2-3 week period. You could use every other piece of available guidance, just not the GFS or GEFS or GFS MOS etc...and see how your forecasts would be as opposed to when you do use it. That would be an interesting study to do I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If the patriots lose on Saturday and there is no snow in sight, I fully expect suicides. That will be a long ride home from Gillette for me. I might even hop out of the car while moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If the patriots lose on Saturday and there is no snow in sight, I fully expect suicides. That will be a long ride home from Gillette for me. I might even hop out of the car while moving. LOL..that is good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 LOL..that is good.. one can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If the patriots lose on Saturday and there is no snow in sight, I fully expect suicides. That will be a long ride home from Gillette for me. I might even hop out of the car while moving. Stop by Brookline on the way home. I'll rehab you with scotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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