Mr Torchey Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We are about to enter one of the biggest flips of a wx pattern of our lives..The next 6 weeks are going to be very very wntry..All systems go. All models on board..all indices just where we want them http://www.facebook....RkpMB_cvOKnnqVg Irony at its best. Dicky T. Your too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think we'll have 2-3 chances of something through the 21st or so..starting this weekend. Not to say there could not be a renegade low somewhere in between, but hopefully we can get something out of this pattern. Funny that there's no sign of a SE ridge on the ensembles. What kind of Nina is this? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Not at all dude... it was funny, even the BTV guys yesterday showed me those stats out of Valdez. We were talking about how dry the Sierra and Rockies are and then they were like, "You want to see a real snowy place? Look at this climate report. We've all been drooling over the Valdez reports for two months now." First thing we're going to have to do is dig out the cabin which is currently buried under 70+" of snow. The second thing we're going to have to do is SKI SKI SKi !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 flakes later tomorrow night into Tuesday morning will be nice, looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Funny that there's no sign of a SE ridge on the ensembles. What kind of Nina is this? lol It's a completely fooked up pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 So our delayed but supposedly not denied pattern change still hasn't occurred, and there already seems to be a building consensus that it may go to crap again in a couple weeks. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't know why DT is so excited about a -NAO. I don't see any signs of that. I do agree with you that we begin to play with fire toward to end of D15 with the retrograde from Kamchatka into Siberia. he's covered himself sufficiently with his "what can go wrong" comments at the end that were not put in lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We are about to enter one of the biggest flips of a wx pattern of our lives..The next 6 weeks are going to be very very wntry..All systems go. All models on board..all indices just where we want them http://www.facebook....RkpMB_cvOKnnqVg I've been told that your MA friends are already using this post to mock you.Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 ec/ukmet both bringing in some light snows tomorrow night...but not one sref member and only like 1 gfs member even comes close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 ec/ukmet both bringing in some light snows tomorrow night...but not one sref member and only like 1 gfs member even comes close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 So our delayed but supposedly not denied pattern change still hasn't occurred, and there already seems to be a building consensus that it may go to crap again in a couple weeks. Sweet. You're going to be just fine up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 So our delayed but supposedly not denied pattern change still hasn't occurred, and there already seems to be a building consensus that it may go to crap again in a couple weeks. Sweet. There are an increasing number of pro mets who are lately voicing the opinion that a pattern change (as in a turn to a period of consistent cold and snow chances) may not occur at all this winter. Even the heretofore gun-ho for a major pattern-change LC in his latest newsletter voiced concern that there are nothing but transient cold shots down the road, each one followed by mild temps, and no signs of any upstream blocking for the foreseeable future. This would really be something given how so many have been touting and steadfastly promising a big change for so long and have been forced repeatedly to push it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I really hope the ridging doesn't retrograde quite as much as the EC ensembles say it will be D14-15...those are some low heights returning to AK...though as long as the ridginging is somewhat into the Bering Straight, it won't be like the pattern we had...but the lower heights retrograding back toward AK is something to be concerned with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 LOL. i suppose yeah. euro has nearly a quarter inch qpf out here. strange to see that kind of disagreement so close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I really hope the ridging doesn't retrograde quite as much as the EC ensembles say it will be D14-15...those are some low heights returning to AK...though as long as the ridginging is somewhat into the Bering Straight, it won't be like the pattern we had...but the lower heights retrograding back toward AK is something to be concerned with. Nonsense. Epic 6 weeks coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 There are an increasing number of pro mets who are lately voicing the opinion that a pattern change (as in a turn to a period of consistent cold and snow chances) may not occur at all this winter. Even the heretofore gun-ho for a major pattern-change LC in his latest newsletter voiced concern that there are nothing but transient cold shots down the road, each one followed by mild temps, and no signs of any upstream blocking for the foreseeable future. This would really be something given how so many have been touting and steadfastly promising a big change for so long and have been forced repeatedly to push it back. Whatever LC forecasts..assume the exact opposite. He has been calling for snow and cold all winter in the face of an awful pattern..now that everyone and everything is poiting cold and wintry he is calling for warmth. He is an embarrassment to the met community Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think that retrogression will happen. It seems to be on a lot of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I really hope the ridging doesn't retrograde quite as much as the EC ensembles say it will be D14-15...those are some low heights returning to AK...though as long as the ridginging is somewhat into the Bering Straight, it won't be like the pattern we had...but the lower heights retrograding back toward AK is something to be concerned with. Unfortunately the GFS and Euro ensembles are in pretty good agreement (surprisingly so, actually) about the ridge retrograde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Whatever LC forecasts..assume the exact opposite. He has been calling for snow and cold all winter in the face of an awful pattern..now that everyone and everything is poiting cold and wintry he is calling for warmth. He is an embarrassment to the met community He also called for a cat 2 hurricane in NYC from Floyd. I unsubscribed to his newsletter then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 LOL. i suppose yeah. euro has nearly a quarter inch qpf out here. strange to see that kind of disagreement so close in. Once in a while I feel like we get a weenie run of the Euro inside 72 hours as a bit of a hiccup. I guess this is probably it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think that retrogression will happen. It seems to be on a lot of the guidance. Yes I agree it will happen,b ut the magnitude of it might make a lot of difference. An omega block forms from the initial ridge...and then slowly retrogrades, but how much could be a big difference. Those can be tough to dislodge once they form, so it will be interesting. I hope the omega block gets quite poleward, because if it does...it can retrograde more and still be a pretty good pattern...if it is at a lower latitude and then retrogrades into Siberia, we probably will return to a much crappier pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Once in a while I feel like we get a weenie run of the Euro inside 72 hours as a bit of a hiccup. I guess this is probably it? I wouldn't be surprised if the south coast got brushed with a little QPF. It's almost like an inv trough too, with that system moving in from the Great Lakes. Ptype looks like an issue though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Once in a while I feel like we get a weenie run of the Euro inside 72 hours as a bit of a hiccup. I guess this is probably it? Only in this winter does a weenie run of the Euro only spit out an Dusting-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yes I agree it will happen,b ut the magnitude of it might make a lot of difference. An omega block forms from the initial ridge...and then slowly retrogrades, but how much could be a big difference. Those can be tough to dislodge once they form, so it will be interesting. I hope the omega block gets quite poleward, because if it does...it can retrograde more and still be a pretty good pattern...if it is at a lower latitude and then retrogrades into Siberia, we probably will return to a much crappier pattern. It's possible the euro could be retro happy, but yeah I agree. Poleward would be nice. Even as shown, it would probably be SWFE city, but it starts cutting it close. I suppose if that trough backs to the sw more...like into the GOA....it could almost pop a +PNA, but I think that would be a risky pattern. I don't want to bank on that....I would rather have the ridge stay near the Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Once in a while I feel like we get a weenie run of the Euro inside 72 hours as a bit of a hiccup. I guess this is probably it? yeah i'm not saying it's right...just a bit surprising. BL temps would be a bit borderline anyway - though most coming overnight on the heels of a chilly day on monday would probably help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Whatever LC forecasts..assume the exact opposite. He has been calling for snow and cold all winter in the face of an awful pattern..now that everyone and everything is poiting cold and wintry he is calling for warmth. He is an embarrassment to the met community Unfortunately, can't say I disagree. The word on LC is that he's a heck of a nice person, but his forecasting skills? Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 He also called for a cat 2 hurricane in NYC from Floyd. I unsubscribed to his newsletter then. I never subscribed.. He dealt with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Unfortunately, can't say I disagree. The word on LC is that he's a heck of a nice person, but his forecasting skills? Ouch. He is a nice dude. I met him at one of the first conferences in BWI yrs ago. But he should not be in the field of long range forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think we should just focus on and enjoy the 2nd half of Jan and worry about what happens in Feb then, Maybe we only have a good 2-3 week stretch..and then it's back to warmth..or maybe it's 6 weeks of pure winter. Noone knows, this winter has proven noone can forecast long range...so let's just enjoy the coming couple of weeks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I can't tell you how happy even a 2-4" sh*t clipper would make me right now. I feel like I'm back in the 80s all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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