weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Ensembles are similar to the op for what its worth. How about in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL...I'm guessing EC ensembles are warm then? No, they just look sim to the op. Very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18z nam through 48 doesn't look too dissimilar from 12z but that could change... edit: It definitely looks like its east at 48-51hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 How about in the long range? Wow does the block form on this run. A little cooler through hr 312, but we start to play with fire, as the ridge and PV retrograde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow does the block form on this run. A little cooler through hr 312, but we start to play with fire, as the ridge and PV retrograde. So both the op and ensemble ECMWF has a huge block at least for a time. All we can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 So both the op and ensemble ECMWF has a huge block at least for a time. All we can ask for at this point. And...the retrograde is already getting pushed back a bit if I remember the earlier discussion from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow does the block form on this run. A little cooler through hr 312, but we start to play with fire, as the ridge and PV retrograde. Ryan said we still have a Tebow's chance in heaven even if the ridge retrogrades since the AO won't be so hostile. Are you in agreement with him on that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 nam is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18z nam through 48 doesn't look too dissimilar from 12z but that could change... edit: It definitely looks like its east at 48-51hr. Slightly colder a hair faster and NE of 12z @ hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 nam coming in colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Slightly colder and east of 12 z Yeah...looks like a compromise between 12z gfs and 12z nam...good for you probably, but not cold enough for here, I'd guess. I only have it out to 51hr though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Ryan said we still have a Tebow's chance in heaven even if the ridge retrogrades since the AO won't be so hostile. Are you in agreement with him on that point? Yeah with that block there, we'll have a shot. The storm track may be on top of us so it could be snow to mix or rain, but any subtle shift south in the block and it's a great pattern. I'd want to be in NNE if that happens, as it may get ugly here, but it has a shot. But even with the block, it doesn't guarantee all snow..it just gives us better chances. We could still have ptype issues with the block, it will come down to timing and placement of features..perhaps a little luck too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah...looks like a compromise between 12z gfs and 12z nam...good for you probably, but not cold enough for here, I'd guess. I only have it out to 51hr though. Better but probably still pretty NW of the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This looks promising... 1-3" tomorrow and then we'll see what happens late in the week. I think we get mostly shut-out up here (that's fine with me, as long as its not rain)... but I like Dendrite up towards SkierinMaine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 that d8-10 mean of the Euro cluster has got to be close to a record EPO ridge... approaching 576 over western Alaska in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 nam coming in colder! Uh, with that track it won't much matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 so name starts of colder but then in just 3 hours shoots the warm air way north! very odd run to me we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If models are right, there may be regional wars going on in about two weeks. Perhaps in New England itself..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nam did shift SE from 12z and colder as it has LP tracking along the coast instead of tracking inland like 12z had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah with that block there, we'll have a shot. The storm track may be on top of us so it could be snow to mix or rain, but any subtle shift south in the block and it's a great pattern. I'd want to be in NNE if that happens, as it may get ugly here, but it has a shot. But even with the block, it doesn't guarantee all snow..it just gives us better chances. We could still have ptype issues with the block, it will come down to timing and placement of features..perhaps a little luck too. Thanks for your thoughts Scott. What more can we really ask for at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If models are right, there may be regional wars going on in about two weeks. Perhaps in New England itself..lol. i plan to win several of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18z nam is colder than 12z but not by alot. its a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 so name starts of colder but then in just 3 hours shoots the warm air way north! very odd run to me we shall see NAM is odd in that range period. It may be right but I'd wait for the GFS (sorry Kevin) and the entire 0Z suite tonight. There obviously are some pretty cold members based on the SREF probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If models are right, there may be regional wars going on in about two weeks. Perhaps in New England itself..lol. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Thanks for your thoughts Scott. What more can we really ask for at this point? Exactly. It has the potential to be exciting, but at the same time..it could let a few down. At least the EC ensembles improved a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If models are right, there may be regional wars going on in about two weeks. Perhaps in New England itself..lol. 2007-08. Let's hope the Pike stays ok. Sorry boys...all for one and every man for himself. Women too. We're talking snow here...no touchy feely stuff...I want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 i plan to win several of them. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Exactly. It has the potential to be exciting, but at the same time..it could let a few down. At least the EC ensembles improved a bit. Is it as hideous in the D15 range on the Euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18z nam is colder than 12z but not by alot. its a start It shifted the 546 thickness about 50 miles SE up in NNE, Thats quite a bit, But take it fwiw, Its out at the end of its cord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 2007-08. Let's hope the Pike stays ok. Sorry boys...all for one and every man for himself. Women too. We're talking snow here...no touchy feely stuff...I want it! Yes, Remenber, No hard feelings...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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