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Next week's storm, Changes, Snow threats beyond (Part 2)


OKpowdah

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At least thru day 10 on the op there's no sign of the vortex heading back into Alaska..though I guess we won't see any semblance of that until about day 14

It does retrograde into the ern shores of the GOA. If it can back up further, it may raise heights in the west, which could help keep the flow coming from Canada, but that's out there right now. Even with that last storm on the euro op...you can still see that we are close to the gradient line.

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Man this thread is way to full of emotion and weenies... must be a bad winter when even the red taggers are all over the place.

I think this one works out for you guys in SNE. This thread all the sudden went from like 12 people reading it two days ago to 75 users this afternoon, lol. Guess that means SNE is in the game.

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The ensembles are the 00z suite will determine perhaps how this trends. We have some good and bad.

Good:

1) stealthy high to the north will help keep the interior cold and create ageostrophic flow

2) Some confluence to our north in the form of a PV lobe.

3) Airmass has some cold punch to it, especially in NNE

Bad:

1) Southern stream system which are notorious for coming north due to physical processes at play.

2) No real good blocking

3) Airmass across SNE is rather tepid and amplfying system across the MIdwest is not helping the mid levels.

You alter any one of these and borderline areas will have a big difference in outcome.

Nice summary!

In addition, dynamics could be tacked onto the good list. I mean, that's a pretty potent mesovort tracking south of us.

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Dendrite has done well a few times.... but the so called GC has mainly been screwed this winter also. yeah Pete got a coating and 2K got a little.... but ask MPM, etc. and the only places to have any decent events were north of the MA/NH line.

This one looks to get GC in on it...but beware it could slip north.

Pretty much what I expect in reality....GC and Dendrite, rinse and repeat.

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Nice summary!

In addition, dynamics could be tacked onto the good list. I mean, that's a pretty potent mesovort tracking south of us.

Yeah that could be there. I wasn't thinking that mesoscale...just outlining the main players, but sure..that will help some areas maybe closer to the changeover line.

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The ensembles are the 00z suite will determine perhaps how this trends. We have some good and bad.

Good:

1) stealthy high to the north will help keep the interior cold and create ageostrophic flow

2) Some confluence to our north in the form of a PV lobe.

3) Airmass has some cold punch to it, especially in NNE

Bad:

1) Southern stream system which are notorious for coming north due to physical processes at play.

2) No real good blocking

3) Airmass across SNE is rather tepid and amplfying system across the MIdwest is not helping the mid levels.

You alter any one of these and borderline areas will have a big difference in outcome.

A real nail-biter.

cdoYa.png

Not sure what the colors represent, but I think it means we need more qpf.

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I’m not going to buy into that cave-man superstition that it can’t snow because everyone wants it to so much, nor the strikingly hollow argument that since it snowed in October, 1979, and didn’t the rest of that year, the same woe-is-me-ism must be true now – there is 0, nadda, zilch, none, no logic or scientific reasoning that enforces such an absurd conclusion. Any similarity pure and utter coincidence.

I hope everyone realizes I kid about that... not serious at all.

Whether it is a coincidence or not remains unknown at this time, but there is no solid reasoning.

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Yeah that could be there. I wasn't thinking that mesoscale...just outlining the main players, but sure..that will help some areas maybe closer to the changeover line.

But Scott, I thought this was a cutter?

Let me dig back into my memory. I think it was something like you responding to my post " LOL at the cutter for next week? That is rain for all"

Those weenie maps look yummie. I'm ripping SN while blizz is ripping RA, just like how I noted in my first meltdown!

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I hope everyone realizes I kid about that... not serious at all.

Whether it is a coincidence or not remains unknown at this time, but there is no solid reasoning.

I don't kid about it. I know it may be different for the interior but October measurable snow is negatively correlated to Boston totals. That's not woe is me, that's the stats. Caveat, obviously small sample size but it is what it is.

I know that Will has posted other stats refuting this for interior locations so I'm simply using that measure for Boston.

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that run i think you'd be good for several inches before any mix/changeover.

Sweet...thanks. I'd definitely take an advisory 2-4"--ice---rain at this point and be happy.

I hope everyone realizes I kid about that... not serious at all.

Whether it is a coincidence or not remains unknown at this time, but there is no solid reasoning.

Snow day on Thursday :snowing:

lol ;)

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I don't kid about it. I know it may be different for the interior but October measurable snow is negatively correlated to Boston totals. That's not woe is me, that's the stats. Caveat, obviously small sample size but it is what it is.

I know that Will has posted other stats refuting this for interior locations so I'm simply using that measure for Boston.

It's cool Jerry.

I would prefer a 2006-2007 or 1993-1994 to 1979-1980 anyway

Does anyone know if the Wunderground Euro snowfall maps show 6 hour totals?

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But Scott, I thought this was a cutter?

Let me dig back into my memory. I think it was something like you responding to my post " LOL at the cutter for next week? That is rain for all"

Those weenie maps look yummie. I'm ripping SN while blizz is ripping RA, just like how I noted in my first meltdown!

Someone needs to go from 5 posts to 0.

Fast.

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