40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Appreciate that ray...too many friends over too many years...back to the weather. I will b in Boston Thurs eve Fri so I am hoping extra hard I have a family member with that affliction....just to illustrate how little a level of consciousness with which I was operating when making that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 nice to actually see some snow events modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Followed the Ukie . Toss the GFS in good times and bad..It's always, always wrong How's that Euro 1-2" snowfall working out today. I don't have 1-2 clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Appreciate that ray...too many friends over too many years...back to the weather. I will b in Boston Thurs eve Fri so I am hoping extra hard If our schedules can be synchronized, it would be nice to get together and drink to the pattern change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro snow maps on wunderground are a weenies dream lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Agreed. Moving on..... Yet another rainer in store for alot of sne...yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 nice to actually see some snow events modeled Look at that gradient. You can see how any little subtle change way up north and also in the PAC, could have a big outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Solid hit up here. nice, since I'll be up north. Never really thought this would be a CP snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 i'd like to lock day 8/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 How's that Euro 1-2" snowfall working out today. I don't have 1-2 clouds. You were going to be rain either way..so at least now the pavement will be dry for you and you won't have to dry off the lawnmower chair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro is still cold for a lot, no where near Ukie warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Moving on..... Yet another rainer in store for alot of sne...yay. You might want to gander at a map because it's not a rainer as bad as you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro is still cold for a lot, no where near Ukie warm. Give it up Steve. Move on to the event later next week. This one is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Warning criteria snow d8-9, huge EPO ridge.....wish it wasn't a prog but reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We shall see if its stays put, Any shifts NW or SE would have ramifiactions especially along the coast and the far NW When models are over the place, usually the extremes are just that, so it's not too surprising..hence we all were waiting for the euro. For those that are borderline, I'd wait through 00z to see if it moves nw or se. If any one of those things I mentioned earlier are altered, it will have an effect. Pretty much my thoughts in response to Matt, Know better then to spike the ball this far out, Verbatium it was great run, 0z should be more telling if it holds serve or shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If our schedules can be synchronized, it would be nice to get together and drink to the pattern change.... I will be on brrokline! With my niece but can likely break away for one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Give it up Steve. Move on to the event later next week. This one is over Reasons?, I will take a Euro, GFS ENS look then decide, I am not expecting anything but it is definely not as warm as you are saying. This is not over, give up if you want but right now as depicted it's very close for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Similar event to Thursday on Euro D10 with the huge difference of frigid antecedent conds and the system dumping on d8-9 acting as the 50/50. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012010912!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I will be on brrokline! With my niece but can likely break away for one Will PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Reasons?, I will take a Euro, GFS ENS look then decide, I am not expecting anything but it is definely not as warm as you are saying. This is not over, give up if you want but right now as depicted it's very close for you. Experience...in these situations they always trend warmer and shift west the last 48 hours. Only way I will think it's anything more than all rain is if the Euro ens are colder than the op. last night they were warmer so you knew the op Euro today was going to come in warmer..esp after the Ukie did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Where in ME is the R/S line? Assume we'll be sloppy here in PWM-land. Its close, Right now you could see some of everything it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 You might want to gander at a map because it's not a rainer as bad as you think. Really don't care to. 1) Those mapes tend to employ a weenie alogrythm 2) It will prob trend a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Really don't care to. 1) Those mapes tend to employ a weenie alogrythm 2) It will prob trend a bit warmer. Translation: He doesn't want to get sucked in and then spit out with 6 hours lead time...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nice meltdown Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At least thru day 10 on the op there's no sign of the vortex heading back into Alaska..though I guess we won't see any semblance of that until about day 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nice meltdown Ray. No, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If it happens, interesting. If it doesn’t, disk golf or whatever other fun stuff to focus on… That said, not sure – the GFS has off and on suggested big aggregates snow balls as far south as Keene, NH over the last 3 days of runs believe it or not. I was talking with Mark up in Maine about this 3 nights ago. Just not into Mass. Tight gradient there. We’ve been playing with fire having these polar highs transiting through Ontario over a snow pack as of late, and NOT having the consequence of cold wedging in from the N … it’s probable that one of those highs will knife in and get us, anyway. There’s also a bit more 700mb confluent structure to the flow over western/central Ontario (prior to the event) compared to previous Euro runs, and that allows for sinking motion and subsequently strong surface ridging … so it’s not like it’s generating more influence from the north out of nothing. I saw the 06z GFS and it echoes those observation for the week ender event. I’m not going to buy into that cave-man superstition that it can’t snow because everyone wants it to so much, nor the strikingly hollow argument that since it snowed in October, 1979, and didn’t the rest of that year, the same woe-is-me-ism must be true now – there is 0, nadda, zilch, none, no logic or scientific reasoning that enforces such an absurd conclusion. Any similarity pure and utter coincidence. The AO dropped some 3 total Standard Deviations over the past 2 weeks. Though it is arguably neutral at this time, that bears less importance to me. The bigger clue is the differential – that pesky loss of 3 SD values. Low and behold, Canada is several scaled back in temperatures, and we are now getting models to trend for more cold bleed into 40 N. Granted, the NAO being positive would tend to argue for more of a NW track, so I am not completely sold on a cold solution just the same. That said, the incidence of confluence at key levels can have a more local scale influence that merely means it is anomalous relative to the NAO – that’s …entirely possible, too. I give it about a 50/50 shot right now when reconciling these teleconnector observations. But that 50/50 is up, so therein is a trend - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If it happens, interesting. If it doesn’t, disk golf or whatever other fun stuff to focus on… That said, not sure – the GFS has off and on suggested big aggregates snow balls as far south as Keene, NH over the last 3 days of runs believe it or not. I was talking with Mark up in Maine about this 3 nights ago. Just not into Mass. Tight gradient there. We’ve been playing with fire having these polar highs transiting through Ontario over a snow pack as of late, and NOT having the consequence of cold wedging in from the N … it’s probable that one of those highs will knife in and get us, anyway. There’s also a bit more 700mb confluent structure to the flow over western/central Ontario (prior to the event) compared to previous Euro runs, and that allows for sinking motion and subsequently strong surface ridging … so it’s not like it’s generating more influence from the north out of nothing. I saw the 06z GFS and it echoes those observation for the week ender event. I’m not going to buy into that cave-man superstition that it can’t snow because everyone wants it to so much, nor the strikingly hollow argument that since it snowed in October, 1979, and didn’t the rest of that year, the same woe-is-me-ism must be true now – there is 0, nadda, zilch, none, no logic or scientific reasoning that enforces such an absurd conclusion. Any similarity pure and utter coincidence. The AO dropped some 3 total Standard Deviations over the past 2 weeks. Though it is arguably neutral at this time, that bears less importance to me. The bigger clue is the differential – that pesky loss of 3 SD values. Low and behold, Canada is several scaled back in temperatures, and we are now getting models to trend for more cold bleed into 40 N. Granted, the NAO being positive would tend to argue for more of a NW track, so I am not completely sold on a cold solution just the same. That said, the incidence of confluence at key levels can have a more local scale influence that merely means it is anomalous relative to the NAO – that’s …entirely possible, too. I give it about a 50/50 shot right now when reconciling these teleconnector observations. But that 50/50 is up, so therein is a trend - Man , you really really need some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 No, not really. Clearly this winter has perturbed you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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