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Next week's storm, Changes, Snow threats beyond (Part 2)


OKpowdah

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Everybody in full personality bias. Ray's last few posts are a gentle DT esque. Basically DT without the personal attacks. I guess one would have to remember the 12/25/02 storm rantings when he was in a hotel in LA telling all of SNE it was an all rain event. Someone said...Hey...DT....it's Christmas. DT replies: FUK CHRISTMAS. One of the all time classics.

Why are elevated and some interior SNE and most of NNE getting snow? 492 thickness air in eastern Canada. As long as we can have that as storms roll through, we'll have our chances with each system.

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The ensembles are the 00z suite will determine perhaps how this trends. We have some good and bad.

Good:

1) stealthy high to the north will help keep the interior cold and create ageostrophic flow

2) Some confluence to our north in the form of a PV lobe.

3) Airmass has some cold punch to it, especially in NNE

Bad:

1) Southern stream system which are notorious for coming north due to physical processes at play.

2) No real good blocking

3) Airmass across SNE is rather tepid and amplfying system across the MIdwest is not helping the mid levels.

You alter any one of these and borderline areas will have a big difference in outcome.

yeah good way to look at it.

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From a met standpoint, this system will lay down snow in areas, needed to help sustain cold moving south. If nothing else, that is a big plus.

Globally, this is the first storm this season that has trended colder from 5 days out to closer in. Pattern change is signaled in that alone.

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Yes

When models are over the place, usually the extremes are just that, so it's not too surprising..hence we all were waiting for the euro. For those that are borderline, I'd wait through 00z to see if it moves nw or se. If any one of those things I mentioned earlier are altered, it will have an effect.

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