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Next week's storm, Changes, Snow threats beyond (Part 2)


OKpowdah

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euro actually starts off with a slightly better antecedent airmass but it's also more amped/tucked closer. so it's more of a high terrain of MA into VT/NH etc deal

Yeah it tucks it nw at the last second. It's funny because the H5 vort went east than came north..probably in advance of that system out west. That system may also try and pull it north too, so we have to be careful of that.

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The EURO only fails within that range when it has a good soloution.....ala Dec 23.

Rain.

What is going to happen is it will end up cold enough for GC over to Dendrite to cash in (for a change, right)...maybe even N ORH co, but will end u being a cold rain fof the rest.

I like this 12z EURO run....probably even end up a bit n of this.

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Yea I was a day late and a dollar short on that one. The Pike and 128 are used by Boston Mets, Hartford use 84, PVD uses 95, all of which are pretty good in reality. South of the Pike Winter? I believe Kevin invented that, now he hates it, too funny.

All I know is if I hear one more person here at work, or at the stores talk about how "awesome" this weekend was, and how great it was to be walking around in t-shirts, and not in 3 feet of snow like last year, I'm going to puch a baby.

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The ensembles are the 00z suite will determine perhaps how this trends. We have some good and bad.

Good:

1) stealthy high to the north will help keep the interior cold and create ageostrophic flow

2) Some confluence to our north in the form of a PV lobe.

3) Airmass has some cold punch to it, especially in NNE

Bad:

1) Southern stream system which are notorious for coming north due to physical processes at play.

2) No real good blocking

3) Airmass across SNE is rather tepid and amplfying system across the MIdwest is not helping the mid levels.

You alter any one of these and borderline areas will have a big difference in outcome.

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