Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I can see the 6hr GEFS, and it's pretty classic looking in terms of having the high nose in. Pretty sure it would be a 32 or 33 snow at Logan. IF that happened. Exactly...classic fight where you guys snow at 32.4 or 32.7 and Phil and I suffer in the warmth 32.9 to 34ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Exactly...classic fight where you guys snow at 32.4 or 32.7 and Phil and I suffer in the warmth 32.9 to 34ish GEFS love to be to the south, but I'd rather that, than north of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think Ray was playing off of Kev's earlier "North of the pike" comment. I personally don't mind the south of the pike specials. Yea I was a day late and a dollar short on that one. The Pike and 128 are used by Boston Mets, Hartford use 84, PVD uses 95, all of which are pretty good in reality. South of the Pike Winter? I believe Kevin invented that, now he hates it, too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'd like to see better CAA coming down on Wednesday, especially for the coast. It's pretty mediocre right now. If we can drill colder temps from surface to 950mb, it would be better. It does help having the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Ryan..what are your thoughts? On the road. Definitely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Can't believe folks ask where to look for model sites when this is on our own site. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yea I was a day late and a dollar short on that one. The Pike and 128 are used by Boston Mets, Hartford use 84, PVD uses 95, all of which are pretty good in reality. South of the Pike Winter? I believe Kevin invented that, now he hates it, too funny. I did that to spite all the north of pike stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'd like to see better CAA coming down on Wednesday, especially for the coast. It's pretty mediocre right now. If we can drill colder temps from surface to 950mb, it would be better. It does help having the high. i think it could be tough inside of 128/95 but if the flow is N enough, maybe it can stay frozen right to the coast up that way. if the antecedent conditions were of a more traditional january variety, i'd be confident in snow even out here...but i kind of envision a nasty CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 i think it could be tough inside of 128/95 but if the flow is N enough, maybe it can stay frozen right to the coast up that way. if the antecedent conditions were of a more traditional january variety, i'd be confident in snow even out here...but i kind of envision a nasty CF. It may set up pretty close by. Maybe it's inland a bit, but collapses se to just nw of BOS. If it were like -2C at 950, I'd be content. That's what the GEFS have..lol. I don't expect much of anything here, but we'll see what the euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the 12z ukmet shows what happens when the vort stays more intact and amped. more like congrats NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If you are snow depressed, DO NOT go check the MSNBC home page... So that's where our snow went.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I did that to spite all the north of pike stuff Warning criteria snow on the GEFS then This is pretty nice if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the 12z ukmet shows what happens when the vort stays more intact and amped. more like congrats NNE. Euro should go that way. usually follows Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro should go that way. usually follows Ukie Not sure it will. And the euro doesn't follow the Ukie...the Ukie comes out before the euro. Just to be clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro should go that way. usually follows Ukie it may come west but i don't buy that line of reasoning. that's one of those old eastern us wx things that's been tossed around on here for years...and i so rarely see that actually verify. maybe it was once true? i don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 SRN stream systems have convection. Something else that might try to raise heights downwind of it, but models do include that to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 To play devil's advocate... It's always possible that the GFS has swung to it's suppressed extreme here in this time range and the Euro models will be more amped, or maybe will hold the line with the 0z ECM solution. the 12z ukmet shows what happens when the vort stays more intact and amped. more like congrats NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 it may come west but i don't buy that line of reasoning. that's one of those old eastern us wx things that's been tossed around on here for years...and i so rarely see that actually verify. maybe it was once true? i don't know. I don't buy it either. There may be similarities to data initialization in which they were trending the same way at some point I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 UK has a known bias of over phasing...usually because of strength issues with SRN streamers. Also has a bias of sucking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Not sure it will. And the euro doesn't follow the Ukie...the Ukie comes out before the euro. Just to be clear. I just thought they were run off the same initialization schemes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GFS shows a nice tertiary wave coming through hours 96-108. Looks like we all get hit by that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 i think the euro's going to be a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 UKMET is in Bracknell and ECMWF is in Reading. No idea though if they share anything re: the model runs. By that I mean they are located only about 10 miles apart.... I just thought they were run off the same initialization schemes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro may end up being a classic CAD/redeveloper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I just thought they were run off the same initialization schemes I just wanted to be clear, that it doesn't follow it....like it's the more superior model....it just comes out sooner. Follows the trend, is probably what you meant. Yeah I have seen that, but the ukie is unstable too, so I don't normally believe it, unless it agrees with the euro or other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro may end up being a classic CAD/redeveloper or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro should go that way. usually follows Ukie We'll see....I went cold rain, maybe some snow\ice accumulation for GC and n ORH co on FB, today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro looks similar to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Little more amped and Tic NW from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro looks similar to 00z. It's actually a smidge nw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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