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Next week's storm, Changes, Snow threats beyond (Part 2)


OKpowdah

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I think Ray was playing off of Kev's earlier "North of the pike" comment.

I personally don't mind the south of the pike specials.

:snowing:

Yea I was a day late and a dollar short on that one. The Pike and 128 are used by Boston Mets, Hartford use 84, PVD uses 95, all of which are pretty good in reality. South of the Pike Winter? I believe Kevin invented that, now he hates it, too funny.

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I'd like to see better CAA coming down on Wednesday, especially for the coast. It's pretty mediocre right now. If we can drill colder temps from surface to 950mb, it would be better. It does help having the high.

i think it could be tough inside of 128/95 but if the flow is N enough, maybe it can stay frozen right to the coast up that way. if the antecedent conditions were of a more traditional january variety, i'd be confident in snow even out here...but i kind of envision a nasty CF.

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i think it could be tough inside of 128/95 but if the flow is N enough, maybe it can stay frozen right to the coast up that way. if the antecedent conditions were of a more traditional january variety, i'd be confident in snow even out here...but i kind of envision a nasty CF.

It may set up pretty close by. Maybe it's inland a bit, but collapses se to just nw of BOS. If it were like -2C at 950, I'd be content. That's what the GEFS have..lol. I don't expect much of anything here, but we'll see what the euro says.

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To play devil's advocate... It's always possible that the GFS has swung to it's suppressed extreme here in this time range and the Euro models will be more amped, or maybe will hold the line with the 0z ECM solution.

the 12z ukmet shows what happens when the vort stays more intact and amped. more like congrats NNE.

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it may come west but i don't buy that line of reasoning.

that's one of those old eastern us wx things that's been tossed around on here for years...and i so rarely see that actually verify.

maybe it was once true? i don't know.

I don't buy it either. There may be similarities to data initialization in which they were trending the same way at some point I suppose.

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I just thought they were run off the same initialization schemes

I just wanted to be clear, that it doesn't follow it....like it's the more superior model....it just comes out sooner. Follows the trend, is probably what you meant.

Yeah I have seen that, but the ukie is unstable too, so I don't normally believe it, unless it agrees with the euro or other guidance.

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