bboughton Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wundermaps has this as a snow event down into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wundermaps has this as a snow event down into CT. Yes it starts as snow even down into CT on the Euro. It has a very solid CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If the algorithm on the Wundermaps totals is any good, that would be 3-5" even in the suburbs of Boston just inside 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I don't remember that much snow...maybe 3" and then hours of ice...maybe it was one of those events that you got way more snow than here...but 8" seems high. Either way, it def snowed some, and then had hours of ice before the warm front finally was able to break the cryospheric curtain over us at the time and blast us into the 50s for a short time before the cold front came through, and then we were off to the races again (with minimal snow pack damage) for another 15 days adding quite a bit more snow in early February. Another feature of that year that was good was whenever it warned up, which was brief, the cold air would usher in with some good squalls. I remember getting caught driving in quite a few that year, it was just an awesome winter all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 wow at the euro.. Probably will just fade away like kevin and jb's snow for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If the algorithm on the Wundermaps totals is any good, that would be 3-5" even in the suburbs of Boston just inside 128 Euro is a very cold solution...no doubt about it...Ray (NW of BOS by 14 miles) would even get several inches...and the interior like ORH hills would prob get 3-7" and then some ice/sleet before it ends. But this is the coldest guidance has ever been on this event, so its hard to take it too seriously yet...but its starting to get closer in the Euro "lethal" range...so we'll have to watch it more closely. The amazing thing is that its south enough it gives minimal precip to NNE. It looked like rain for them on previous progs. I'm not sure what to make of this, other than there is a distinct cooling trend, but I'm very weary of the Euro overdoing that trend. It did it in the 12/23 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The NAM 0z doesn't look like the Euro at all. 850mb is very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro is a very cold solution...no doubt about it...Ray (NW of BOS by 14 miles) would even get several inches...and the interior like ORH hills would prob get 3-7" and then some ice/sleet before it ends. But this is the coldest guidance has ever been on this event, so its hard to take it too seriously yet...but its starting to get closer in the Euro "lethal" range...so we'll have to watch it more closely. The amazing thing is that its south enough it gives minimal precip to NNE. It looked like rain for them on previous progs. I'm not sure what to make of this, other than there is a distinct cooling trend, but I'm very weary of the Euro overdoing that trend. It did it in the 12/23 event. Good post. I suppose the sneak attack confluence / CAD will make the ECMWF potentially the best at seeing this cooler scenario unfold. Looking north, it is interesting how the setup temporarily resembles that of a -NAO scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The Euro doesn't really get the 850 0c contour north of the CT/MA border on the stormvista maps. The surface low gets down to 992mb South of the 40/70 benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 With the temporary -NAO like setup, confluence/CAD from Quebec and quicker intensifying cyclone on a more eastward track, it is possible this turns into a mostly snow event for portions of the Northeast. If that were the case, this would then potentially be a significant snow event, given the amount of moisture. I think this system tomorrow is key to altering the N. Atlantic / E. Canadian circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The Euro doesn't really get the 850 0c contour north of the CT/MA border on the stormvista maps. The surface low gets down to 992mb South of the 40/70 benchmark. Yeah on the WSI maps it doesn't really either...maybe a shade north of the CT/MA border....but its starting to turn into a sneak attack...but not buying it yet...still a ways to go. But if the EC played out verbatim for kicks, then it would be a big winter storm for the interior....likely several inches of snow and then some sleet...the sfc temps are not warm. There are some 20s in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah on the WSI maps it doesn't really either...maybe a shade north of the CT/MA border....but its starting to turn into a sneak attack...but not buying it yet...still a ways to go. But if the EC played out verbatim for kicks, then it would be a big winter storm for the interior....likely several inches of snow and then some sleet...the sfc temps are not warm. There are some 20s in there. Sounds like the definition of marginal here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GEM-GLB 0z is very warm for the entire East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GEFS 850 profiles were colder than the operational too. Just something to keep in mind -- I think there is a good possibility that this trends colder as the event approaches. Although, there definitely isn't much cold air in place prior to the system where I could say "hey this looks like an underdone confluent flow". All of that said, there are still major changes going on aloft on almost all of the forecast models. The 12z and 00z OP GFS runs were dramatically different with the H5 orientation of the northern stream feature over the plains, and even more importantly...farther southeast with the compact shortwave over the Southeast US. Notice the de-amplified heights over the East Coast when comparing the 12 and 00z runs. Something tells me this could jump either way (back to a warm solution, or colder)...but we haven't seen the final "trends" yet. 12z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f78.gif 00z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f66.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Maybe something finally breaks our way and we get lucky with a snow event..... Or maybe the best moisture slides off to my south/east if this trend continues. 18F here now... Yes it starts as snow even down into CT on the Euro. It has a very solid CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That would be awesome if tomorrow's 12z runs all of a sudden started showing a colder solution here. Perhaps this is what we need though...we are probably going to need some sort of luck to get snow. Sort of like Tebow needs luck to usually win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This is for the those heat mongers and debbie downers....the 00z Euro shows a massive winter storm for interior SNE...esp N of the pike...but even Kevin gets some accumulating snow out of it....but I am not taking this seriously. This is easily the coldest piece of guidance right now. So for those who say we always honk the winter scenarios...lets watch this evolve. This would easily be a winter wx advisory, and probably a likely winter storm warning for ORH if the Euro verified. But its cold and the pattern is very questionable to support this type of solution....so its a wait and see proposition. I'm not expecting a huge change here to wintry...but we'll see. The current pattern is pretty hostile to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 6z GFS goes the way of the Euro. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Will says we're going to get buried!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 So does Dendrite!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The 06Z GFS tries to cook up something in the south stream from 120-144 but its too slow to eject out and by the time it does the cold air and high is gone and it misses to the south anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 So does Dendrite!!!! [CoastalWX]Caution[/CoastalWX] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It will be fascinating to see how this adjusts over the next few days. But some nice shifts to be sure. Of course, too much of a good thing and you'll have me soundling like Rick a couple posts back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 As for the LR, the EC ens start to retrograde the PV back toward AK/Yukon by d15 and we go back above normal in the NE. There's a hint of a little ridging at times toward Greenland/Iceland, but nothing much at this point. Hopefully we can cash in a couple times in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 cooling trend feels legit...we'll see....but higher spots especially GC might be in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 [CoastalWX]Caution[/CoastalWX] To hell with caution, we're going to get smoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 To hell with caution, we're going to get smoked! idk about "smoked", but maybe someone can sneak away with 3-5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Although after the past 6 weeks, 3" would feel like getting smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Although after the past 6 weeks, 3" would feel like getting smoked. I was going to alter this one but seeing as I'm on double secret probation I thought better of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro would even be wintry for ktol...not necessarily snow but maybe sleet/mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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