HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Saturday morning surprise... What is with the 0C line for Thursday? Looks odd in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Well, We know there are threats on the table looking ahead anyways, A far cry from the last month or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Is it believable? I know its D6, but could the setup support it? Yeah the setup can support it...we have a pretty good ridge out west. But without a block, again, we'll need pretty good timing and we haven't been able to buy that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Nice cold shot at the end 0C down in Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 that follwoup storm looks damn intriguing....ive had my eye on it, as many of us have. would love to get right into a new england snow thread this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 that follwoup storm looks damn intriguing....ive had my eye on it, as many of us have. would love to get right into a new england snow thread this week. Your move may be well timed, I like the fact that we remain cold going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Thursday event is different. Again, note that the low tracking further south doesn't mean colder. We need a stronger system driving toward strong high pressure. A track into NY could get the job done. Bunch of shortwaves in the mix by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Thursday event is different. Again, note that the low tracking further south doesn't mean colder. We need a stronger system driving toward strong high pressure. A track into NY could get the job done. Bunch of shortwaves in the mix by next weekend. Yup, We need a stronger system to turn the flow more NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 GFS ensembles are much closer with the Thursday track...looks like near ACK. So more rain than the OP run shows. It also has the storm behind it but obviously as its further out, its more diffuse looking on the ensembles...but a def min pressure hanging south of SNE at 144h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Good to see Will posting....pattern shift closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 gotta love how at hr144, the shortwave over West Virginia on the GFS is the same disturbance that is cut off west of California on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Nice vortex showing up in Alaska at end of the run. Has there ever been a winter with 98% positive NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Nice vortex showing up in Alaska at end of the run. Has there ever been a winter with 98% positive NAO? '94-'95 and '07-'08 nearly went wire to wire with a +NAO...difference is in '07-'08 there was enough of a -EPO at times that the northern tier did well. Also the +NAO was displaced far SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Nice vortex showing up in Alaska at end of the run. Has there ever been a winter with 98% positive NAO? The op GFS D10-D15 is just pure comedy. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F08%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NPAC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+Pacific+-+Western+US+Alaska+Western+Canada+Hawaii+North+Pacific+Ocean&prevArea=NPAC&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I have ceased to hope for anything.....all meteorological investment is withdrawn and thus if it snows, it snows. I suggest others do the same. I can count the times that I have viewed guidance since last March on one hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Op run has 480 thicknesses just north of Lake Superior....crazy. My idea of a few weeks of winter ala 1999-00 is looking good. Enjoy it while it last presuming it happens. I would throw 2/10-20 out as sayonara. My squirrels are lying bastards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Op run has 480 thicknesses just north of Lake Superior....crazy. My idea of a few weeks of winter ala 1999-00 is looking good. Enjoy it while it last presuming it happens. I would throw 2/10-20 out as sayonara. My squirrels are lying bastards I agree.....have liked that analog for awhile, hence my ammedned seasonal total of 45-55". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 CMC likes the idea of Saturday's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 CMC likes the idea of Saturday's snow. The CMC has been riding the snow/cold train all winter so far and been wrong many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The CMC has been riding the snow/cold train all winter so far and been wrong many times. Thank you for that immensely illuminating meteorological tidbit...we hadn't noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The CMC has been riding the snow/cold train all winter so far and been wrong many times. It's an awful model in general but I'm just throwing out the fact that for 0z it agrees with GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Op run has 480 thicknesses just north of Lake Superior....crazy. My idea of a few weeks of winter ala 1999-00 is looking good. Enjoy it while it last presuming it happens. I would throw 2/10-20 out as sayonara. My squirrels are lying bastards Hopefully March isn't a complete dud again...it was in 2000. So if that analog plays out, then we continue the March futility. I wonder if we play out more like '98-'99 except the wintry period in Jan is 2 weeks later than that year. It also had a decent March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hopefully March isn't a complete dud again...it was in 2000. So if that analog plays out, then we continue the March futility. I wonder if we play out more like '98-'99 except the wintry period in Jan is 2 weeks later than that year. It also had a decent March. Touche. That is actually the year that I meant to reference, not '99-'00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hopefully March isn't a complete dud again...it was in 2000. So if that analog plays out, then we continue the March futility. I wonder if we play out more like '98-'99 except the wintry period in Jan is 2 weeks later than that year. It also had a decent March. That March was nice...several events. Remember the oes event that year.....probably the most widespread in my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Lol...Euro with light snow here Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Lol...Euro with light snow here Tuesday morning. Go figure, that was the event it had at the beginning of this week when it was 132-144 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Go figure, that was the event it had at the beginning of this week when it was 132-144 hours out. Kevin turning over in bed mumbling AIT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 00z GEFS bring back a pretty sizable +EPO after D10. It's pretty hideous... but it sure beats what we've had. At least the AO isn't raging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Damn the Euro is dull. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 1993-94 gets thrown around alot these days but the 00Z Euro from Day 6-10 looks very much like the 1/25-2/15 period in 1994. Of course, who knows how many times it will change til then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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