OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The severe season is going to blow this year. Spring likely. Will be making up for the obscene positive departures of the past 4 years with huge ones over the past several months, sorry wiz. i kinda agree with wiz...La Nina's tend to be good for severe weather in general. Those looking for another EF3/4 in SNE might be disappointed, though lol. Oh, but I'm not ready for severe weather, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm snorting weenies....but I'll bet that doesn't happen. I get bored with the conservative approach and the aggressive approach to weather forecasting. Either way, I keep the emotion out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We have been void derecho outbreaks lately. And that damn EML over the warm season continues to show up even in the winter...Saturday's EML and high temperatures were ridiculous! Yeah it's been a very long time of anything derecho like around here...this is something we should be due for. That EML we had this past Saturday was quite impressive...couldn't believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm huffing glue...but if that southern s/w were to get associated with one of these PJ waves with that Arctic Air in place, it would definitely rescue the winter. It would be epic, and it has crossed my mind as this year being uniquely qualified. But, those types of exotic stream scanarios are just so rare. Great winters: one streamers; multiple nickle diimes. 2nd geatest winters, struggled lags between bigger events. 3rd great winters, tripple phasers - 1992-1993...etc. Greatest winter, all 3 - haven't seen that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah it's been a very long time of anything derecho like around here...this is something we should be due for. That EML we had this past Saturday was quite impressive...couldn't believe that. 60s in DCA is one thing....60s in New England? I hope you got a chance to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 60s in DCA is one thing....60s in New England? I hope you got a chance to enjoy it. It was nice! Who cares about snow - fluckin' amazing. Keeping emotion out of it? I wish, but it won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 60s in DCA is one thing....60s in New England? I hope you got a chance to enjoy it. I certainly did! Got up to either 60 or 61F at BDL which was just shy of the record. Probably going to end up missing it when the Arctic assault comes...especially if it's just nothing but cold and dry which seems quite possible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It was nice! Who cares about snow - fluckin' amazing. Keeping emotion out of it? I wish, but it won't happen I certainly did! Got up to either 60 or 61F at BDL which was just shy of the record. Probably going to end up missing it when the Arctic assault comes...especially if it's just nothing but cold and dry which seems quite possible at this point. I certainly express emotion when I have to deal with weather. Unfortunately, I worked through the nice weather Saturday. And yes Paul, this pattern can end up being drab and cold. Of course, there would be snow showers probably most days in a pattern like the 00z GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 AFN is a snow sounding at 84 hours on the GFS...it shows poor CAD in the low levels though...but the Euro didn't. I still think these colder solutions are too cold, but if we go through another cycle or two, then we might have to consider them as more legit. When the low is strengthening like that to the south, it is going to produce CAD in the interior, so some icing might be a threat. Foot in mouth, this would be one of those borderline events that would benefit from some in-situ snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 it's kinda bizzare how different both the gfs and the gefs mean are different from the euro and euro ensembles mean re: depth of the midwest trough at day 4 and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Foot in mouth, this would be one of those borderline events that would benefit from some in-situ snow cover Yeah it probably would...the whole baroclinic zone would be shifted a bit SE and also become sharper in the low levels probably tightening the whole thing up...at the very least, really up the icing threat if not more...but oh well. We are in winter '11-'12. Hopefully some of that northern stream stuff after that event can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I certainly express emotion when I have to deal with weather. Unfortunately, I worked through the nice weather Saturday. And yes Paul, this pattern can end up being drab and cold. Of course, there would be snow showers probably most days in a pattern like the 00z GFS has. I'm just hoping we can get lucky with a clipper system that goes a bit above and beyond of your typical clippers...this pretty much may be our only shot at getting any type of accumulating snows. I'm just incredibly concerned that this could end up as a top 3 least snowiest January on record for the 4 major climo sites in SNE. BDL is 0.2'', ORH is a T, PVD is 0.1'', and BOS is 0.3'' so hopefully we are able to generate something to keep this from being the worst but this is getting a bit nerve racking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Verbatim, the 00z GFS takes us from negative teens Sunday Night to flirting with the rain/snow line Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Verbatim, the 00z GFS takes us from negative teens Sunday Night to flirting with the rain/snow line Monday night There was an event like that in Jan 1994...Jan 28, 1994....the morning of Jan 27 was like 0F and below 0F in the radiational cooling spots...and by the morning of the 28th, we were seeing 50s penetrate SNE after front end snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 just illustrating the differences at 108/120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL at the GFS cold shot. Heh -36C 850s. I don't think we've had anything near that since jan 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 There was an event like that in Jan 1994...Jan 28, 1994....the morning of Jan 27 was like 0F and below 0F in the radiational cooling spots...and by the morning of the 28th, we were seeing 50s penetrate SNE after front end snow and ice. I remember that event...school was cancelled. Had about 8" of snow, then a period of ice, but it was all washed away by 50's and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 There was an event like that in Jan 1994...Jan 28, 1994....the morning of Jan 27 was like 0F and below 0F in the radiational cooling spots...and by the morning of the 28th, we were seeing 50s penetrate SNE after front end snow and ice. Wow, that's impressive. I think the days leading up to the 2008 Ice Storm were along those lines too. Lows in the single digits rising to highd in the low 50's on the 9th IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 oh...and the op gfs...which interestingly enough looks closer to the euro/ensembles than the gfs ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Heh -36C 850s. I don't think we've had anything near that since jan 04. It will prob be a long time until we see that again...I've posted it before, but its the coldest 3 day period on record at ORH going back all the way since records were kept. (hence on record, but I think a lot of people fail to appreciate that phrase) 3 day avg temp of colder than -3F...that is average temp...not lows. I think it was something like 1F/-12F, 3F/-12F, 8F/-9F or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I remember that event...school was cancelled. Had about 8" of snow, then a period of ice, but it was all washed away by 50's and rain. I don't remember that much snow...maybe 3" and then hours of ice...maybe it was one of those events that you got way more snow than here...but 8" seems high. Either way, it def snowed some, and then had hours of ice before the warm front finally was able to break the cryospheric curtain over us at the time and blast us into the 50s for a short time before the cold front came through, and then we were off to the races again (with minimal snow pack damage) for another 15 days adding quite a bit more snow in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I don't remember that much snow...maybe 3" and then hours of ice...maybe it was one of those events that you got way more snow than here...but 8" seems high. Either way, it def snowed some, and then had hours of ice before the warm front finally was able to break the cryospheric curtain over us at the time and blast us into the 50s for a short time before the cold front came through, and then we were off to the races again (with minimal snow pack damage) for another 15 days adding quite a bit more snow in early February. I'll have to look for my records from that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 As long as we're on a January 2004 kick, I remember seeing sub -100F windchills on Mt. Washington. Inconceivable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'll have to look for my records from that year. Here is KORH...what a period that was...some brief warmups (as happens even in a mega cold gradient pattern)...but man...just look at those minimums while remembering we have zero radiational cooling here...we usually go cold on the highs. Lots of small snow events mixed in too...just a really fun winter...even where you were too if you didn't get the 100" "zone" jackpot. 1994-01-01 36.0 16.0 0 1994-01-02 42.0 26.0 0.6 1994-01-03 26.0 15.0 0.4 1994-01-04 19.0 12.0 9.8 1994-01-05 25.0 9.0 0.3 1994-01-06 13.0 3.0 1.9 1994-01-07 14.0 6.0 5.7 1994-01-08 21.0 12.0 5.4 1994-01-09 20.0 8.0 0 1994-01-10 19.0 0.0 0 1994-01-11 28.0 3.0 0 1994-01-12 31.0 17.0 1.8 1994-01-13 35.0 22.0 0.005 1994-01-14 32.0 17.0 0.5 1994-01-15 17.0 -5.0 0 1994-01-16 1.0 -12.0 0 1994-01-17 45.0 -1.0 1 1994-01-18 35.0 -2.0 2.9 1994-01-19 4.0 -8.0 0 1994-01-20 10.0 -6.0 0 1994-01-21 16.0 -2.0 0 1994-01-22 24.0 4.0 0.005 1994-01-23 20.0 0.0 0.1 1994-01-24 38.0 20.0 0.005 1994-01-25 31.0 16.0 0 1994-01-26 16.0 -5.0 1.8 1994-01-27 14.0 -5.0 0.1 1994-01-28 50.0 11.0 1.8 1994-01-29 44.0 23.0 0 1994-01-30 25.0 11.0 0 1994-01-31 25.0 6.0 0 1994-02-01 19.0 5.0 0.1 1994-02-02 23.0 3.0 0 1994-02-03 25.0 5.0 1.1 1994-02-04 26.0 7.0 0 1994-02-05 40.0 22.0 0 1994-02-06 33.0 21.0 0 1994-02-07 31.0 10.0 0 1994-02-08 10.0 3.0 2.9 1994-02-09 10.0 3.0 5.3 1994-02-10 19.0 -5.0 0.3 1994-02-11 16.0 2.0 7.8 1994-02-12 29.0 14.0 0.005 1994-02-13 32.0 19.0 0.4 1994-02-14 22.0 7.0 0.1 1994-02-15 30.0 3.0 0 The columns are max/min/snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 vostok antarctica gets to -100 without the windchill now thats inconceivable http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/89606/2011/8/22/DailyHistory.html As long as we're on a January 2004 kick, I remember seeing sub -100F windchills on Mt. Washington. Inconceivable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The ECMWF has the 0c line to S-C PA / C NJ 00z THU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 vostok antarctica gets to -100 without the windchill now thats inconceivable http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html Okay, well MWN is at 44N latitude, isn't sitting on a massive sheet of ice miles thick, and has the rare quality of being an hour drive from my apartment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow, the EC is a pretty good snow event for N ORH county and S NH for Thursday....it nearly keeps it all snow. Keeps it all frozen for interior SNE N of the pike even if the MLs sneak a warm layer....what a cold solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow, the EC is a pretty good snow event for N ORH county and S NH for Thursday....it nearly keeps it all snow. Keeps it all frozen for interior SNE N of the pike even if the MLs sneak a warm layer....what a cold solution. This sneak attack confluence / high pressure from Quebec may just keep this from being all rain or most rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Heh -36C 850s. I don't think we've had anything near that since jan 04. HIE for Jan 04 is like something you'd expect to see in Alaska or North Dakota. http://classic.wunde...hlyHistory.html LCI got off pretty easy due to the winter permawind. I'll probably never see -20 here ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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