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Next week's storm, Changes, Snow threats beyond (Part 2)


OKpowdah

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AFN is a snow sounding at 84 hours on the GFS...it shows poor CAD in the low levels though...but the Euro didn't. I still think these colder solutions are too cold, but if we go through another cycle or two, then we might have to consider them as more legit. When the low is strengthening like that to the south, it is going to produce CAD in the interior, so some icing might be a threat.

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AFN is a snow sounding at 84 hours on the GFS...it shows poor CAD in the low levels though...but the Euro didn't. I still think these colder solutions are too cold, but if we go through another cycle or two, then we might have to consider them as more legit. When the low is strengthening like that to the south, it is going to produce CAD in the interior, so some icing might be a threat.

It's been there, in the runs off and on - I posted about the big aggregate to EEN profile 2 days ago. Might be ligit anyway -

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That is a pretty interesting looking N stream shortwave for the 15th on the GFS...if we were going to get something right away out of this change, then it would be something like that. Get a clipper type system to dive SE and maybe try and pop a bit SE of LI or something for a classic advisory clipper.

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That is a pretty interesting looking N stream shortwave for the 15th on the GFS...if we were going to get something right away out of this change, then it would be something like that. Get a clipper type system to dive SE and maybe try and pop a bit SE of LI or something for a classic advisory clipper.

Yeah it looked interesting.

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Lol, Nick beat me to it...but a clipper type system is probably the first chance for anything early on because of the steep ridge out west...we are likely to be northern stream dominated. Low probability obviously at this range, but for showing what type of system might produce, its something like that. Sometimes they can surprise and are one of my favorite types of events when they happen.

At this point, even just a dry clipper of 1-2" though would be welcome. As mentioned before (and showed this at my conference presentation last summer)...northern stream disturbances are particularly very bad at being handled by models when we start getting a lot of northern latitude blocking...so systems like that GFS creation aren't normally seen well until pretty close in.

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Going to be rough along the Pacific Northwest / British Columbia Coastlines with this pattern. Pretty unique transpolar ridge / -WPO pattern as well for the northern hemisphere.

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It would be a lot more interesting if the southern wave was involved.

:)

I'm drunk ...but, I've been thinking the southern stream is going to be intrinsically out of phase most of the time this year. Doesn't mean that can't happen of course. But, if winter is going to be rescued I bet it will come from northern stream dominant scenarios first. Probably keyed into "whenever" the polar field indexes (EPO/NAO/AO) tank. I'm less impressed by NAO - over rated.

180 hours ?

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I'm drunk ...but, I've been thinking the southern stream is going to be intrinsically out of phase most of the time this year. Doesn't mean that can't happen of course. But, if winter is going to be rescued I bet it will come from northern stream dominant scenarios first. Probably keyed into "whenever" the polar field indexes (EPO/NAO/AO) tank. I'm less impressed by NAO - over rated.

180 hours ?

I'm huffing glue...but if that southern s/w were to get associated with one of these PJ waves with that Arctic Air in place, it would definitely rescue the winter.

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At this point I'm just about ready for spring/summer/severe wx season. Many crappy winters here have been followed by pretty active severe wx seasons...so something to look forward to down the road.

We have been void derecho outbreaks lately.

And that damn EML over the warm season continues to show up even in the winter...Saturday's EML and high temperatures were ridiculous!

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The severe season is going to blow this year. Spring likely. Will be making up for the obscene positive departures of the past 4 years with huge ones over the past several months, sorry wiz.

Yes...spring could actually suck this year which would be horrible but living in New England I guess this is something we just expect...as long as we get rid of any crap spring wx by June.

Fixed

:lol:

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