weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Its the euro model I think he knew that but was making a joke about the asterisks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think he knew that but was making a joke about the asterisks. Helluva way to run a cutter GFS colder yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think he knew that but was making a joke about the asterisks. I see, I would have hoped he knew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I could see some mix or ice in far interior areas on the GFS. What a shame not to have a decent high and antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 AFN is a snow sounding at 84 hours on the GFS...it shows poor CAD in the low levels though...but the Euro didn't. I still think these colder solutions are too cold, but if we go through another cycle or two, then we might have to consider them as more legit. When the low is strengthening like that to the south, it is going to produce CAD in the interior, so some icing might be a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Its the euro model I know what ECMWF means. I don't know what ***ECMWF*** is supposed to mean - duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 AFN is a snow sounding at 84 hours on the GFS...it shows poor CAD in the low levels though...but the Euro didn't. I still think these colder solutions are too cold, but if we go through another cycle or two, then we might have to consider them as more legit. When the low is strengthening like that to the south, it is going to produce CAD in the interior, so some icing might be a threat. It's been there, in the runs off and on - I posted about the big aggregate to EEN profile 2 days ago. Might be ligit anyway - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looks like the system does close off briefly for a time which could act to halt the northward progression of the warm front/low-level warm air advection...something that could work in favor for some wintry precip for far inland areas across central/northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 gfs is kinda close to something interesting around the 15th. Almost a re-developing clipper but energy isn't concentrated enough and it doesn't induce enough ridging ahead of it to get going sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That is a pretty interesting looking N stream shortwave for the 15th on the GFS...if we were going to get something right away out of this change, then it would be something like that. Get a clipper type system to dive SE and maybe try and pop a bit SE of LI or something for a classic advisory clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That is a pretty interesting looking N stream shortwave for the 15th on the GFS...if we were going to get something right away out of this change, then it would be something like that. Get a clipper type system to dive SE and maybe try and pop a bit SE of LI or something for a classic advisory clipper. Yeah it looked interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It would be a lot more interesting if the southern wave was involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 there might be some support for that system in the indicies. At least the Op Euro has a rising but negative east -NAO along with a sharp drop in the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Lol, Nick beat me to it...but a clipper type system is probably the first chance for anything early on because of the steep ridge out west...we are likely to be northern stream dominated. Low probability obviously at this range, but for showing what type of system might produce, its something like that. Sometimes they can surprise and are one of my favorite types of events when they happen. At this point, even just a dry clipper of 1-2" though would be welcome. As mentioned before (and showed this at my conference presentation last summer)...northern stream disturbances are particularly very bad at being handled by models when we start getting a lot of northern latitude blocking...so systems like that GFS creation aren't normally seen well until pretty close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's interesting how boring it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow the op run opens the Arctic floodgates in the far extended! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL at the GFS cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Going to be rough along the Pacific Northwest / British Columbia Coastlines with this pattern. Pretty unique transpolar ridge / -WPO pattern as well for the northern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If the GFS just had a little more concentration with that s/w this weekend..you could probably pull a 3-5" type deal. It's strung out right now, but it would not take much at all to make it a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It would be a lot more interesting if the southern wave was involved. I'm drunk ...but, I've been thinking the southern stream is going to be intrinsically out of phase most of the time this year. Doesn't mean that can't happen of course. But, if winter is going to be rescued I bet it will come from northern stream dominant scenarios first. Probably keyed into "whenever" the polar field indexes (EPO/NAO/AO) tank. I'm less impressed by NAO - over rated. 180 hours ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At this point I'm just about ready for spring/summer/severe wx season. Many crappy winters here have been followed by pretty active severe wx seasons...so something to look forward to down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Tip, tipping back some pints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The severe season is going to blow this year. Spring likely. Will be making up for the obscene positive departures of the past 4 years with huge ones over the past several months, sorry wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm sober and Tip is drunk....who said we wouldn't see a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm drunk ...but, I've been thinking the southern stream is going to be intrinsically out of phase most of the time this year. Doesn't mean that can't happen of course. But, if winter is going to be rescued I bet it will come from northern stream dominant scenarios first. Probably keyed into "whenever" the polar field indexes (EPO/NAO/AO) tank. I'm less impressed by NAO - over rated. 180 hours ? I'm huffing glue...but if that southern s/w were to get associated with one of these PJ waves with that Arctic Air in place, it would definitely rescue the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At this point I'm just about ready for spring/summer/ get lucky by crazy anomaly severe wx season. Many crappy winters here have been followed by pretty active severe wx seasons...so something to look forward to down the road. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm huffing glue...but if that southern s/w were to get associated with one of these PJ waves with that Arctic Air in place, it would definitely rescue the winter. I'm snorting weenies....but I'll bet that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 0z GFS, LOL. But at least we have a shot. If everything skews NW in time, at least some of the region will get white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At this point I'm just about ready for spring/summer/severe wx season. Many crappy winters here have been followed by pretty active severe wx seasons...so something to look forward to down the road. We have been void derecho outbreaks lately. And that damn EML over the warm season continues to show up even in the winter...Saturday's EML and high temperatures were ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The severe season is going to blow this year. Spring likely. Will be making up for the obscene positive departures of the past 4 years with huge ones over the past several months, sorry wiz. Yes...spring could actually suck this year which would be horrible but living in New England I guess this is something we just expect...as long as we get rid of any crap spring wx by June. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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