weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Giants packers game should be quite cold in Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 One thing I started noticing on guidance today is that for the Thursday storm, there could be the threat of some marginal icing in the interior. Too far out to say much in the way of detail. Yeah...I thought there was potential for icing over parts of the elevated interior up here a couple days ago so long as we can keep the sfc low south of us. Now that it looks a little interesting we'll probably see the BL get torched in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Giants packers game should be quite cold in Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah...I thought there was potential for icing over parts of the elevated interior up here a couple days ago so long as we can keep the sfc low south of us. Now that it looks a little interesting we'll probably see the BL get torched in future runs. Some convective stuff Thursday? The system is pretty potent down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 s/w swinging through tomorrow night has slightly more neutral to negative tilt 00z vs 18z NAM ...so the clouds might be a little thicker in CT Monday Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Giants packers game should be quite cold in Green Bay. Euro op has 30s...ens 20s. Nothing too out of the ordinary. The GFS would be another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 s/w swinging through tomorrow night has slightly more neutral to negative tilt 00z vs 18z NAM ...so the clouds might be a little thicker in CT Monday Night Blizz's legit snow threat #1 Did not realize CT extended as far into the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 snowpack defintiely has an effect seen it as a living breating experiment, call it a randomized controlled experiment the last 2.5 weeks. the result was classic snowpack effect....textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Perhaps the most positive sign of this winter. Many had totally written Thursday off early as nothing but a rain storm for all. Although still a rain storm for most the guidance continues to come in colder. It was pointed out on Thursday that the Euro ENS seemed to indicate that colder scenarios were on the table. This. It hicupped a bit overnight and the morning but we got these clues 2 days ago and now they have come back. This is a part of the shift in pattern. But the most obvious sign of a pattern change is Will's increasingly frequent posting. That is a serious teleconnection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I guess you became alot more religious tonight. P.S. You guys are lucky sob's drawing them, it is like a bye all the way to the championship game. Don't think that you chaps are particularly worried about TJ Yates though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This. It hicupped a bit overnight and the morning but we got these clues 2 days ago and now they have come back. This is a part of the shift in pattern. But the most obvious sign of a pattern change is Will's increasingly frequent posting. That is a serious teleconnection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah...I thought there was potential for icing over parts of the elevated interior up here a couple days ago so long as we can keep the sfc low south of us. Now that it looks a little interesting we'll probably see the BL get torched in future runs. The icing part has a real possibility i think with the thurs storm, Mtns and northern areas could end up with snow/sleet with a mixed bag down this way if the colder trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Day 4 to 5 upper level low should slow down due to the somewhat temporary east -NAO block that develops in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 nah the model plot posted was 168 hr/7 day verification. Huh ... completely miss-read that. Yeah, 7 days out is a crappes shoot, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The end of the week/weekend is looking better. Could be some good upslope snows mixed in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Huh ... completely miss-read that. Yeah, 7 days out is a crappes shoot, sure. well, messenger said outside 100 hours is a crap shoot...but the model plots themselves in the post were for 168 hr verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 lol the nam and 18z gfs are so different, only Maine gets snow on the nam, and even they look to flip. There is some icing modeled in southern/central VT on the nam though...so the ice might be a legit threat but will it be for Will or Pete or Powderfreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 lol the nam and 18z gfs are so different, only Maine gets snow on the nam, and even they look to flip. There is some icing modeled in southern/central VT on the nam though...so the ice might be a legit threat but will it be for Will or Pete or Powderfreak? I seriously doubt there'll be icing in your/Will's neck of the woods...LOL. PF definitely and maybe Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I seriously doubt there'll be icing in your/Will's neck of the woods...LOL. PF definitely and maybe Pete. You're probably right...but who knows. 18z gfs probably had SNH icing I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Day 4 to 5 upper level low should slow down due to the somewhat temporary east -NAO block that develops in the Atlantic. It's an interesting storm for the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 WTF? Sensationalizing in order to garner support? Yeah that's definitely how I get my kicks, trying to "garner support" on an online forum. The reason I'm arguing is because that's definitely not our first concern. Sure it can feedback on itself as Will suggests, but plant a mega low over Alaska and over Greenland, the reason we're not getting snow here isn't because of insufficient snow cover to our west. Regardless of the rationale, that is what you were doing. No one is saying it is the first concern, nor the most prominent reason as to why we aren't getting snow....but it doesn't help and is of a detriment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 You're probably right...but who knows. 18z gfs probably had SNH icing I think. Thats not to say there may be a trend toward icing in SNH or NW Mass, but its the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Thats not to say there may be a trend toward icing in SNH or NW Mass, but its the 18z GFS The Euro was the most wintry of any model...it showed even a start as snow here probably...but looked like there could be a few hours of ice too...I put the probability pretty low. But its not zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 well, messenger said outside 100 hours is a crap shoot...but the model plots themselves in the post were for 168 hr verification. The Euro has been forecasting phanton snows in SNE for Monday for a couple of days, I'm sure it'll pull the plug on that finally tonight. Any model outside of 100 or so hours is going to struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Beautiful timing for a delay of school on Thursday if I could get some ice before the rain. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The Euro has been forecasting phanton snows in SNE for Monday for a couple of days, I'm sure it'll pull the plug on that finally tonight. Any model outside of 100 or so hours is going to struggle. You should of been weenie of the year. By they only vote for pro-snow people so you had no shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 What does "***ECMWF***" mean? CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MERGING THE TWO STREAMS AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBING THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THE GFS AND ***ECMWF*** DISAGREE ON HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR...THE GFS DOES THIS BEFORE THE SOUTHERN LOW REACHES NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE ***ECMWF*** WAITS UNTIL IT REACHES THE MARITIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The Euro has been forecasting phanton snows in SNE for Monday for a couple of days, I'm sure it'll pull the plug on that finally tonight. Any model outside of 100 or so hours is going to struggle. just clarifying what the confusion was for tip. Yes, I don't take any specific threat super seriously outside of 100 hours. Some of the pooping of the euro lately is somewhat unfounded because it's usually a phantom low that it happens to blow up 144 hours out and then loses it after a run or two. It's mostly about "MBY" rather than what model actually verifies more correctly with synoptic features. But the idea of a pattern change is a solid one. Of course, you can believe whatever you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 What does "***ECMWF***" mean? CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MERGING THE TWO STREAMS AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBING THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THE GFS AND ***ECMWF*** DISAGREE ON HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR...THE GFS DOES THIS BEFORE THE SOUTHERN LOW REACHES NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE ***ECMWF*** WAITS UNTIL IT REACHES THE MARITIMES. Its the euro model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Its the euro model I think he meant this part ****** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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