Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Fascinating to read this thread. Study in psychology really. The mets point out all the possibilities good and bad. Then the rest post their ideas and it goes directly with what appears to be their outlook vis a vis optimistic or pessimistic. The optimists see big winter pattern coming in. The pessimists see nothing but failed chances. The funny thing is objectivey you can make a case for either scenario. Once we get into the effects of the new Pacific regime we'll find out whether this winter can produce or not. But making definitive statements about a great pattern or not are guesses at this point. I think we'll know about a week into it. I personally do not know what to expect but at least there will be some chances. The same stuff happens when we switch from a favorable to an unfavorable pattern as happened last February. In the end, the pattern coming could be epic or it could be a fart. We'll know soon enough. I admit it's a total prediction/guess. But so is everything else. I'm just wondering what the basis is for all the extended cold and snowy talk is, if we're not supposed to take ANYTHING from models beyond a few days. Please don't tell me it's the ensembles, if we go back and review late November into December all we had was talk of ensembles showing a favorable pattern for SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Glad to see the GFS come more in line with the Thursday storm making the primary low off the coast for a colder solution. I think this could be mostly snow or some mix with ip in the mountains. I will be doing the Carter Range Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Couldn';t have summed it up any better RyanMaue Ryan Maue I hope everyone realizes that GFS has no skill after about 7.5 days on average. ...rolls dice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 But doesn't "overdoing" the cold and its persistence have an inherent connection to the overall pattern? We've been in a bad pattern for snow and cold over the last few months so it's very sensible that the models will end up moving toward warm. The pattern going forward isn't so clear cut for warm given the change in the Pac and AO. Obviously it doesn't necessarily mean we'll get tons of snow but I would think that it means we also shouldn't lock in the models modifying their long range cold back to warm like we've seen so often this winter. However, I do agree with your last point though, it's definitely a guess on whether this upcoming colder regime is transient or not is certainly anyone's guess. An equally valid argument against your persistence argument imo is one arguing that based on our climatology we should begin to revert toward the mean of snowfall for the region. That's not my personal call since I don't have enough knowledge in the subject, but I just wanted to present it as a counter argument to the persistence one. Your reading comprehension FTL. What are all the long term "change is coming forecasts" based on? Presumably forecast conditions BY THE MODELS down the road right? Teleconnections that are the result of forecast conditions, pattern recognition again all based on forecasts given by the models in one shape or form. But to me anyway it seems that people are ignoring what has been a persistent bias in the models to overdo the cold and the persistence of the cold. So far everyone that has called for colder and snowier weather on the horizon has been wrong since 11/1/11. Each time there have been a myraid of reasons why things would turn colder, why we should use the ensembles that were showing brutal cold shots with lots of overruning opportunities etc etc etc. Those all failed miserably. It's almost 1/9 and there really hasn't even been a threat to track in SNE since pre-Christmas. The entire point of that posting was to show the volatility and futility in worrying about D7+ and once again basing colder and snowier forecasts on the output. I'll take persistence, and to me the apperance that all the signs are there that beyond the extended cold shot we revert to a warmer pattern. Warmer but more unstable with more storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Couldn';t have summed it up any better RyanMaue Ryan Maue I hope everyone realizes that GFS has no skill after about 7.5 days on average. ...rolls dice... I think the euro is right in the mix. Op runs in general suck at that time frame. #ensemblesFTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think the euro is right in the mix. Op runs in general suck at that time frame. #ensemblesFTW. I think both models are identical to score once around D8...at least they were a winter ago or two...maybe one is slightly better than the other at that range, but since both are very low skill that far out, its semantics debating which is better. Euro is decidedly better inside of 6 days but its lethal range isn't really until about 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think both models are identical to score once around D8...at least they were a winter ago or two...maybe one is slightly better than the other at that range, but since both are very low skill that far out, its semantics debating which is better. Euro is decidedly better inside of 6 days but its lethal range isn't really until about 84 hours out. Yeah agreed...op runs struggle at that range. I wish people wouldn't worry too much at that time range when using them. Sometimes they are right, but the volatility is so high..especially in changing regimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 But doesn't "overdoing" the cold and its persistence have an inherent connection to the overall pattern? We've been in a bad pattern for snow and cold over the last few months so it's very sensible that the models will end up moving toward warm. The pattern going forward isn't so clear cut for warm given the change in the Pac and AO. Obviously it doesn't necessarily mean we'll get tons of snow but I would think that it means we also shouldn't lock in the models modifying their long range cold back to warm like we've seen so often this winter. However, I do agree with your last point though, it's definitely a guess on whether this upcoming colder regime is transient or not is certainly anyone's guess. An equally valid argument against your persistence argument imo is one arguing that based on our climatology we should begin to revert toward the mean of snowfall for the region. That's not my personal call since I don't have enough knowledge in the subject, but I just wanted to present it as a counter argument to the persistence one. Great discussion. My point in posting the maps and the discussion today was to make it clear I believe the cold has a back end. That the pattern change may well just be towards less dominant warm periods, more colder periods but that overall without the SER we're left with surpressed cold periods, or warm wet periods. I'm not sure about the latter yet...but I think the cold releases somewhere around 1/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I admit it's a total prediction/guess. But so is everything else. I'm just wondering what the basis is for all the extended cold and snowy talk is, if we're not supposed to take ANYTHING from models beyond a few days. Please don't tell me it's the ensembles, if we go back and review late November into December all we had was talk of ensembles showing a favorable pattern for SWFEs. I think all the mets said the pattern sucked until the pacific change started showing up fr real. I just don't have the same memory Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We never said the ensembles were favorable for SWFE in Novembver. I think we said they were possible if we had enough cold, when describing a d14 ensemble prog, but we all.....all said the AK vortex was bad. Countless times either myself, Will, Ryan, Phil..all said the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Fascinating to read this thread. Study in psychology really. The mets point out all the possibilities good and bad. Then the rest post their ideas and it goes directly with what appears to be their outlook vis a vis optimistic or pessimistic. The optimists see big winter pattern coming in. The pessimists see nothing but failed chances. The funny thing is objectivey you can make a case for either scenario. Once we get into the effects of the new Pacific regime we'll find out whether this winter can produce or not. But making definitive statements about a great pattern or not are guesses at this point. I think we'll know about a week into it. I personally do not know what to expect but at least there will be some chances. The same stuff happens when we switch from a favorable to an unfavorable pattern as happened last February. In the end, the pattern coming could be epic or it could be a fart. We'll know soon enough. It is fascinating to read. Some excellent analyses by some. Some thuggery by one. But as is often the case (more so for these extended forecasts), we see and bring attention to data that supports what we want. I'm not experienced enough to stake a claim in any particular forecast. I will say that calls for a "pattern change", however brief it may be, have increased in the last few days. Most of all, signs of a declining AO have been growing, and I think many would argue that has been the single most important factor in making this a horrible winter. With this same recent data, however, there have been also calls by some very experienced meteorologists (Don Sutherland, Glenn Schwartz, and others) that the mild sensible weather is here to stay through at least beginning of February. While I can't make an extended forecast confidently, you know what train I've been riding since mid-December. I don't honk it because it annoys people here. But we are running towards something historic and potentially once-in-a-lifetime, and I'd prefer that excitement (and some spectacular days like Saturday) over a couple nickel and dime events that we get every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think all the mets said the pattern sucked until the pacific change started showing up fr real. I just don't have the same memory Scott. He might be getting it mixed up with the occasional week 4 of the weeklies that started to show changes, but usual caveats were awlways mentioned when we talk about the weeklies. The true change on the actual ensembles didn't appear until late December and was progged for January 10th-12th....and we said that the ensembles generally like to rush the changes and that it might be until the 15th-20th until that vortex is really flushed. Even with this big change, I think many of us (I know Scooter did) reiterated that its not a deep freeze and prarade of snow events pattern...its a change from the domination of warmth and no hope for snow...it gives us a chance and puts some much colder air lurking north of us and getting into our region at times. We can, and have, cashed in well on these patterns before, but we've also been left with not much at all as well...we just don't know and are at the mercy of the the individual shortwaves and other details within the large scale regime. All we can say for sure is: 1. Vortex of death from AK....going away. That is looking inevitable now. It will happen....for how long? Hard to say but it will be a different regime while it is. 2. Snow chances should be greater as a result of #1. Doesn't guarantee we get them...just ups our odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 He might be getting it mixed up with the occasional week 4 of the weeklies that started to show changes, but usual caveats were awlways mentioned when we talk about the weeklies. The true change on the actual ensembles didn't appear until late December and was progged for January 10th-12th....and we said that the ensembles generally like to rush the changes and that it might be until the 15th-20th until that vortex is really flushed. Even with this big change, I think many of us (I know Scooter did) reiterated that its not a deep freeze and prarade of snow events pattern...its a change from the domination of warmth and no hope for snow...it gives us a chance and puts some much colder air lurking north of us and getting into our region at times. We can, and have, cashed in well on these patterns before, but we've also been left with not much at all as well...we just don't know and are at the mercy of the the individual shortwaves and other details within the large scale regime. All we can say for sure is: 1. Vortex of death from AK....going away. That is looking inevitable now. It will happen....for how long? Hard to say but it will be a different regime while it is. 2. Snow chances should be greater as a result of #1. Doesn't guarantee we get them...just ups our odds. Good post, Will. Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We never said the ensembles were favorable for SWFE in Novembver. I think we said they were possible if we had enough cold, when describing a d14 ensemble prog, but we all.....all said the AK vortex was bad. Countless times either myself, Will, Ryan, Phil..all said the same. Don't forget my name on that list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Don't forget my name on that list Which time, when you brought winter in from a favorable euro run. Or cancelled it the next run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Here's mine and JB's thinking for snow tomorrow nite..south of Pike special http://t.co/hSfPApla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We all knew the pattern would stink with a bad Pacific and we all knew it might persist right through December. But I don't think we were prepared for such futility in terms of getting any snow events. Even in bad years such as 05-06 we managed through luck, latitude, etc. to have some snow. I think all the mets said the pattern sucked until the pacific change started showing up fr real. I just don't have the same memory Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We all knew the pattern would stink with a bad Pacific and we all knew it might persist right through December. But I don't think we were prepared for such futility in terms of getting any snow events. Even in bad years such as 05-06 we managed through luck, latitude, etc. to have some snow. There was def a bit of bad luck involved...I mentioned that further back. We've had terrible patterns give us a decent event or two before. But when you have a really hostile pattern AND some rotten luck to go with it, this is what you get. Virtually snowless for 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 There was def a bit of bad luck involved...I mentioned that further back. We've had terrible patterns give us a decent event or two before. But when you have a really hostile pattern AND some rotten luck to go with it, this is what you get. Virtually snowless for 6 weeks. It takes additional bad luck to keep you snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I did had a few little LES scraps, but snowless in terms of any synoptic system since that 3" in early December. Even Buffalo is at some ridiculous number like 5 or 6 inches so far this season.... I was watching the dean of WNY tv wx guys Don Paul the other day when out there and he said they should be in the upper 40"s now. It takes additional bad luck to keep you snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Most of the 18z GFS ensemble members are quite a bit colder for the Thursday storm than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Most of the 18z GFS ensemble members are quite a bit colder for the Thursday storm than the op run. Is the slp track further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Most of the 18z GFS ensemble members are quite a bit colder for the Thursday storm than the op run. Yeah...it could get a little interesting up here especially if it continues to trend colder. It's still 3-4 days away so it's worth watching at this lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We never said the ensembles were favorable for SWFE in Novembver. I think we said they were possible if we had enough cold, when describing a d14 ensemble prog, but we all.....all said the AK vortex was bad. Countless times either myself, Will, Ryan, Phil..all said the same. I reread the November stuff awhile back, there was a lot of talk about things becoming more favorable/SWFE's etc. It seemed like each run of the ensembles it was brought up....and it all failed. It's all moot anyway, we can review how well things played out in ten days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I reread the November stuff awhile back, there was a lot of talk about things becoming more favorable/SWFE's etc. It seemed like each run of the ensembles it was brought up....and it all failed. It's all moot anyway, we can review how well things played out in ten days or so. In November I think the weeklies and some end runs of the ensembles had a pattern favorable for it a few times, but I think we all mentioned that the AK vortex was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At this point, just some light advisory events would be good. We have to get some snow pack down across the region...even to our west to start feeding back on this air masses in the low levels. It makes a difference. I think so, too...but Sam tried to tell me otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah...it could get a little interesting up here especially if it continues to trend colder. It's still 3-4 days away so it's worth watching at this lat. We will watch the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I reread the November stuff awhile back, there was a lot of talk about things becoming more favorable/SWFE's etc. It seemed like each run of the ensembles it was brought up....and it all failed. It's all moot anyway, we can review how well things played out in ten days or so. I'll admit it...I was on the SWFE bandwagon until the month actually started, then I promptly jumped off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 In November I think the weeklies and some end runs of the ensembles had a pattern favorable for it a few times, but I think we all mentioned that the AK vortex was bad. Yeah...a lot of the LR forecasts had December rocking, but I recall mostly pessimisism from the mets in this subforum. Any "optimism" was mostly the hope that we could dislodge or weaken the vortex sometime in mid December and it obviously never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think so, too...but Sam tried to tell me otherwise. The warmer (above MOS) temps lately are partly a result of no snowpack. There is a difference with temps right now. Snow will help sustain the cold across the Lakes and down from NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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