Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Then how can there be a "gradient pattern", especially in the East? When the Arctic air verifies, a lack of a SE ridge screams suppression, far from a gradient. Sans the SE Ridge, which is very un-Nina ish I think you've hit the nail on the head on why the gradient will fail. Surpression or depression. If Jerry were willing, I'm almost ready to make a bet of 1" or less at Logan into 2/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Eh, you never know. Something around the 18th and 21 looked interesting. Didn't look too dry. Yeah that date's been on the radar for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yeah I think you're right... it's just going to take a while to get there and I'm not sure how long we'll have this pattern to work with. I'm still concerned with the track in the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Even on the 21st, the EC ensembles have the trough going negative..this far out. I don't think that would be dry, and may have a boost from the Gulf. Congrats powderfreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yeah that date's been on the radar for a bit. But I do see what you mean. You don't want s/w's too strung out in "ruler" flow. I just think they'll have a chance to pick up some moisture and amplify a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 But I do see what you mean. You don't want s/w's too strung out in "ruler" flow. I just think they'll have a chance to pick up some moisture and amplify a bit. Yeah I do think down the road they will. At least the initial look is pretty ugly with a zonal flow and little room for amplification. After D12 I think there's more opportunity for amplification at least the way the Euro Ens look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The EC ensembles have two distinct systems of interest...the 16th-17th system and then the 21st system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Basically we want to look towards Texas and see this... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1994/us0209.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Basically we want to look towards Texas and see this... http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0209.php That look is possible with the two modeled southern stream features. Check out my main forum post/thread about the eastward displaced Walker/Hadley Cell; pretty cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Basically we want to look towards Texas and see this... http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0209.php lol now that's a gradient pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 That destroyed the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 That destroyed the coast. That was one of my favorite snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 With the PV and possible extension into the Midwest, the pattern potentially could not look far off from that. I'm NOT saying something like that, but I could see a rather elongated, but long lasting low like that somewhere over the nrn tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I kind of like it when it's Ryan on his own little dry island against the rest of the mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I kind of like it when it's Ryan on his own little dry island against the rest of the mets lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I kind of like it when it's Ryan on his own little dry island against the rest of the mets But I do see his point. We may start out with weak systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I kind of like it when it's Ryan on his own little dry island against the rest of the mets I think many people, especially you, have exceptionally unrealistic expectations. Yes the pattern is changing but it's not exactly an awesome pattern. I would not be surprised if we wind up with very little snow from this pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 But I do see his point. We may start out with weak systems. At this point, just some light advisory events would be good. We have to get some snow pack down across the region...even to our west to start feeding back on this air masses in the low levels. It makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 But I do see his point. We may start out with weak systems. We are in agreement with the 1/21 system... I think that's worth watching. Unfortunately beyond 1/21 there's no guarantee we keep a semi-favorable pattern. This winter just sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Then how can there be a "gradient pattern", especially in the East? When the Arctic air verifies, a lack of a SE ridge screams suppression, far from a gradient. Upper level flow is fairly zonal, separating a cold airmass to the north from a warm airmass to the south over a short distance ... definition of a gradient. The orientation doesn't matter ... it's still a gradient pattern. There doesn't have to be a SE ridge present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think many people, especially you, have exceptionally unrealistic expectations. Yes the pattern is changing but it's not exactly an awesome pattern. I would not be surprised if we wind up with very little snow from this pattern change. Huh??? 1-2 inches south of pike tomorrow night..and then 2 systems on the EC Ens.. 16th and 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Huh??? 1-2 inches south of pike tomorrow night..and then 2 systems on the EC Ens.. 16th and 21st You're joking, right? No snow besides maybe a flurry at the coast tomorrow night... I don't see much at all on the 16th... the 21st could be interesting but we'll see. You are actually becoming irritiating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 You're joking, right? No snow besides maybe a flurry at the coast tomorrow night... I don't see much at all on the 16th... the 21st could be interesting but we'll see. You are actually becoming irritiating. No I'm not joking. Block me then instead of being a doosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 No I'm not joking. Block me then instead of being a doosh Outside of the Euro showing maybe an inch along the South coast and a dusting inland south of the pike, there's really nothing supporting more than a flurry Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Huh??? 1-2 inches south of pike tomorrow night..and then 2 systems on the EC Ens.. 16th and 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 How much rain are we expecting Weds night/Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 How much rain are we expecting Weds night/Thursday? 0.75"? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 At this point, just some light advisory events would be good. We have to get some snow pack down across the region...even to our west to start feeding back on this air masses in the low levels. It makes a difference. Yeah that's fine by me as well. I kind of miss the 2-4" deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Huh??? 1-2 inches south of pike tomorrow night..and then 2 systems on the EC Ens.. 16th and 21st The rain is Weds night into Thursday, and it shouldn't be 1-2"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 0.75"? lol Snow for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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