CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It looks warm for OK. It's just weird looking at all this... being in a Nina... and having such an un-Nina pattern. High AAM state with additional MT possibilities should keep the GWO in a high AAM state. No SE ridge for the forseeable future lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Eh, it gives us chances which is all we can ask for...right? Maybe Feb sets up for something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Would you mind telling me if it's good for Oklahoma? Lol...no offense meant..but this is funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's just weird looking at all this... being in a Nina... and having such an un-Nina pattern. High AAM state with additional MT possibilities should keep the GWO in a high AAM state. No SE ridge for the forseeable future lol. It looked like the AAM was falling again a couple of days ago, but I haven't looked lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Seems like we have been hearing the term "gradient" and 1994 alot this season, yet it hasn't snowed since the leaves fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Seems like we have been hearing the term "gradient" and 1994 alot this season, yet it hasn't snowed since the leaves fell. 1994 was never an option. There has been a gradient, but over 60N...lol. This will shift into the nrn tier of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's just weird looking at all this... being in a Nina... and having such an un-Nina pattern. High AAM state with additional MT possibilities should keep the GWO in a high AAM state. No SE ridge for the forseeable future lol. Then how can there be a "gradient pattern", especially in the East? When the Arctic air verifies, a lack of a SE ridge screams suppression, far from a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 So is it a Pike south light snow event tomorrow night? Been awhile since one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Then how can there be a "gradient pattern", especially in the East? Because the flow will turn more zonal with higher heights and warmer temps to the south, and cooler temps to the north. I think there will be some se ridging...ensembles may not pick out those features, so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 1994 was never an option. There has been a gradient, but over 60N...lol. This will shift into the nrn tier of the US. I'm just venting........this is tough to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Seems like we have been hearing the term "gradient" and 1994 alot this season, yet it hasn't snowed since the leaves fell. This is the first time the models really have shown a true 1994 pattern, but there are alot of differences. One, the PV is still located well north of where it was in 1994 on today's Euro, there is little STJ this year compared to 1994, so there is nothing in the southern stream to run into any arctic highs that might be cutting across S Canada in this setup, and the La Nina also can cause more of a SE ridge effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 This is the first time the models really have shown a true 1994 pattern, but there are alot of differences. One, the PV is still located well north of where it was in 1994 on today's Euro, there is little STJ this year compared to 1994, so there is nothing in the southern stream to run into any arctic highs that might be cutting across S Canada in this setup, and the La Nina also can cause more of a SE ridge effect. Yeah that's why this pattern still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 This is the first time the models really have shown a true 1994 pattern, but there are alot of differences. One, the PV is still located well north of where it was in 1994 on today's Euro, there is little STJ this year compared to 1994, so there is nothing in the southern stream to run into any arctic highs that might be cutting across S Canada in this setup, and the La Nina also can cause more of a SE ridge effect. One thing we haven't really seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Because the flow will turn more zonal with higher heights and warmer temps to the south, and cooler temps to the north. I think there will be some se ridging...ensembles may not pick out those features, so far out. I think by D15 we'll probably be popping some SE ridging but it's not a classic "gradient" pattern as I use the word with a -PNA/SE Ridge and a PV to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yeah that's why this pattern still sucks. Coming off a more or less 5 year running El Nino helped alot that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't want a srn stream, because that could easily be a warmer solution. Systems coming in from the Plains and tapping the gulf is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't want a srn stream, because that could easily be a warmer solution. Systems coming in from the Plains and tapping the gulf is fine. I'd rather an active southern stream with the PV to the north than the potential for a relatively quiet and boring northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I just feel like with no good ATL blocking, we don't want juicy amped up systems with lots of convection. I'll take 3-5" of snow instead of 2-4" followed by 2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Today's euro is a harsh winter pattern and a winter lovers dream . The snow threats will certainly be there as we move forward Not at all, actually. It's a better pattern than what we've seen but it still isn't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'd rather an active southern stream with the PV to the north than the potential for a relatively quiet and boring northern stream. See I don't think it will be. Even the euro ensembles had a nice trough in the midwest at the end. That would probably be a decent system. Maybe it will, but I don't think every system will be moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't want a srn stream, because that could easily be a warmer solution. Systems coming in from the Plains and tapping the gulf is fine. In this relatively flat pattern it will be hard to get anything that cuts west, this meridional flow is exactly what we want or weak disturbances, as you said though as soon as you start running something too strong its going to cut into the Oh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Not at all, actually. It's a better pattern than what we've seen but it still isn't great. Your GFS MOS above normal thru day10 FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Blah.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'd rather an active southern stream with the PV to the north than the potential for a relatively quiet and boring northern stream. Tough call....without a s stream, the risk is cold\dry, which is the absolute worst....but out best systems are born of the n stream. Miller A's suck. Probably doesn't matter because whatever can go wrong, has and will go wrong this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 See I don't think it will be. Even the euro ensembles had a nice trough in the midwest at the end. That would probably be a decent system. Maybe it will, but I don't think every system will be moisture starved. Yeah by the end. I just don't see a whole lot of interest in the D7-D10 or even a bit beyond. I guess I'm just a bit frustrated that we finally got the pattern to change and we're not going to have a whole lot to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 In this relatively flat pattern it will be hard to get anything that cuts west, this meridional flow is exactly what we want or weak disturbances, as you said though as soon as you start running something too strong its going to cut into the Oh Valley. This is true, but again.,.where does it set up? If it sets up close by, and any system tries to get a little energetic...it's congrats Vim Toot. I might be wrong, but I think we could get some SWFE here, and I don't think it would be all that dry. Some may be, but any little s/w that wants to dig, will have the gulf to their own, with high pressure just off the se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yeah by the end. I just don't see a whole lot of interest in the D7-D10 or even a bit beyond. I guess I'm just a bit frustrated that we finally got the pattern to change and we're not going to have a whole lot to show for it. Eh, you never know. Something around the 18th and 21 looked interesting. Didn't look too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 A southern stream like an El Niño? Well, at times during this first half of winter we did have one, but for the most part it is much less defined. But going forward on the ECMWF suite, there are two stj waves of interest. Not what I would call a lack of a southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 This is true, but again.,.where does it set up? If it sets up close by, and any system tries to get a little energetic...it's congrats Vim Toot. I might be wrong, but I think we could get some SWFE here, and I don't think it would be all that dry. Some may be, but any little s/w that wants to dig, will have the gulf to their own, with high pressure just off the se coast. Yeah I think you're right... it's just going to take a while to get there and I'm not sure how long we'll have this pattern to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Even on the 21st, the EC ensembles have the trough going negative..this far out. I don't think that would be dry, and may have a boost from the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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