Go Kart Mozart Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yeah they can retrograde, but sometimes they sort of redevlop again in the same area. I don't know if that will occur this time around. It's probably too early to determine that right now. That's what I thought. There seems to be a lot of unnecessary angst on the board about retrogression of the -epo block. This is a normal sequence....epo block...retrogression....pna....new epo block. Eventually a handshake block forms in the nao region. I may be dreaming, but I think the maps look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 AMOUT Gfs wrong long range and wrong with the above normal thru day 7 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Just killed a mosquito. Snow will be great but for starters I'll be happy with a week of below normal temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 See the euro op is sort of doing what I was saying earlier. It tries to retrograde that trough into the GOA, but some ridging develops in CA. I don't know if that is a stable pattern, but kind of interesting. Anyways, it's the euro op at d10...but just sayin'. The ensembles have hinted at that pattern too...but the details won't be known until we get closer. What we want is that ridging to poke well into the north pole region...that way even if it all retrogrades, its still at high enough latitudes that we maintain cross polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 I wouldn't mind seeing long range model guidance latch onto a snow storm, and keep it for a few runs. I also wouldn't mind getting a legit snow threat inside 72 hours ... seems like it's been a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If ESRL was working, I would post the WPO h5 maps but essentially the pattern you guys are describing is sort of like -WPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If ESRL was working, I would post the WPO h5 maps but essentially the pattern you guys are describing is sort of like -WPO. Yeah, exactly. What do you make of what's going on in the stratosphere, HM? Models are insistent on a warming but it doesn't look like winds are having much luck reversing in middle and lower stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 If ESRL was working, I would post the WPO h5 maps but essentially the pattern you guys are describing is sort of like -WPO. I've got it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 SNE is Richmond this winter. A 50/50 chance at a half inch is noteworthy. ECM with all this "elevational" front end stuff on Thursday also ...perhaps not too credible. This pattern has clearly gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's awful. I am was my Aunt's place in Allegany County, NY @ 2300' and there was green grass with hints of a bit of nascent growth (like you'd see around mid April) in the fields. A few patches of rapidly melting soggy remnants of the LES they had earlier last week. I checked myself for ticks afterward because you can't feel safe that they are all dead even in January. Just killed a mosquito. Snow will be great but for starters I'll be happy with a week of below normal temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Today's euro is a harsh winter pattern and a winter lovers dream . The snow threats will certainly be there as we move forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The ensembles have hinted at that pattern too...but the details won't be known until we get closer. What we want is that ridging to poke well into the north pole region...that way even if it all retrogrades, its still at high enough latitudes that we maintain cross polar flow. Yeah I agree. Just trying to see how we can get a somewhat decent pattern as the whole thing retrogrades a little. I'm hoping we keep the block up by the Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Haven't given up though! ..Or I wouldn't be reading this thread... This pattern has clearly gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If ESRL was working, I would post the WPO h5 maps but essentially the pattern you guys are describing is sort of like -WPO. It's been trying to translate that through the NP (AB phase) for 3 weeks in the GEFs mean - could it be finally succeeding? The -EPO ridging others have noted is clearing getting there. I'm also interested in this new stratospheric warming node. Should have better luck propagating... but already one must wonder if there is some effectiveness per the warming there has already been. The AO is initializing negative yet the GEFs keep initializing +1SD - makes it hard to know what is really going on. However, seeing the very obvious PV bifurcation appeal going on, and the fact that all these operational guidance have the Canadian shield severely scaled back both would be connected. I like the former though ... so long as the MJO remains incoherent the Pac Basin's eastern region has a better chance of formulating the +PNA mode off that geopotential distribution. The EPO and PNA are negative correlated - I think pattern lead/loading is culpable there particularly when the tropical forcing is less than coherent. It wouldn't shock me if there is a +PNA ridge at some point over the next 3 weeks that exceeds any current operational suggestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yeah, exactly. What do you make of what's going on in the stratosphere, HM? Models are insistent on a warming but it doesn't look like winds are having much luck reversing in middle and lower stratosphere. I posted in the AAM/GWO thread about how the first minor warming helped affect the pattern across Russia and the N PAC. These warmings also help promote coolings into the Tropics, which may be why the CHI divergence / -OLR got active in phase 1 (which is why the forcing is not strictly Walker right now). I think another +AAM tendency is knocking on the door and will probably get another warming to follow the current modeled one. Each one will likely continue to weaken this thing until a possible breakdown in about a month. How exactly this next warming is going to feedback on the troposphere, I haven't figured out but it may help sustain the downward AO trend through mid-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Today's euro is a harsh winter pattern and a winter lovers dream . The snow threats will certainly be there as we move forward Wouldn't it be funny if that didn't happen ? Cold, cold, and more cold, with a couple of intermediary warm episodes, and the atmosphere gets away with doing that without a major storm to show for it ?? It happened a few times in the late 1980s - ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's been trying to translate that through the NP (AB phase) for 3 weeks in the GEFs mean - could it be finally succeeding? The -EPO ridging others have noted is clearing getting there. I'm also interested in this new stratospheric warming node. Should have better luck propagating... but already one must wonder if there is some effectiveness per the warming there has already been. The AO is initializing negative yet the GEFs keep initializing +1SD - makes it hard to know what is really going on. However, seeing the very obvious PV bifurcation appeal going on, and the fact that all these operational guidance have the Canadian shield severely scaled back both would be connected. I like the former though ... so long as the MJO remains incoherent the Pac Basin's eastern region has a better chance of formulating the +PNA mode off that geopotential distribution. The EPO and PNA are negative correlated - I think pattern lead/loading is culpable there particularly when the tropical forcing is less than coherent. It wouldn't shock me if there is a +PNA ridge at some point over the next 3 weeks that exceeds any current operational suggestion. The time to watch for a -NAO will be when the heart of the subsidence arrives over the Walker Cell / Indonesia and the forcing organizes over the Indian Ocean in the last 10 days of the month. This will also be another time of a +MT / upwelling remote wave which could tip the scale on the stratosphere. Until then, it looks like a very interesting 1994-like pattern, to a degree, mid-January. The funny thing is: the ECMWF dislodges the Alaskan Vortex and actually sends what's left of that anomaly to us in the extended range. A final showdown coming with this tyrannical circulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The time to watch for a -NAO will be when the heart of the subsidence arrives over the Walker Cell / Indonesia and the forcing organizes over the Indian Ocean in the last 10 days of the month. This will also be another time of a +MT / upwelling remote wave which could tip the scale on the stratosphere. Until then, it looks like a very interesting 1994-like pattern, to a degree, mid-January. The funny thing is: the ECMWF dislodges the Alaskan Vortex and actually sends what's left of that anomaly to us in the extended range. A final showdown coming with this tyrannical circulation? Cue Kevin and Jerry in 5....4...3....2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Wouldn't it be funny if that didn't happen ? Cold, cold, and more cold, with a couple of intermediary warm episodes, and the atmosphere gets away with doing that without a major storm to show for it ?? It happened a few times in the late 1980s - ha! Freaking sadist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Oh I forgot Bob- mostly pessimistic posts , but always leaves the door open for a little optimism along with a picture of a model with analysis that sometimes is very good, other times very bad Great one, Kevin. You managed to leave off your mercurial, Sybil outbursts. Meanwhile, just enjoying the few weenie flakes coming down here. Still had evidence of snow on the sides of the road duirng my drive this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 That's going to be a heck of a gradient pattern on the EC ensembles and potential nail biter at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 That's going to be a heck of a gradient pattern on the EC ensembles and potential nail biter at times. I'm a little bit confused... Have we been in a gradient pattern now or no? I feel like you have posted this same exact quote like 5 times already this winter. One time in Early december, mid december, late december.. etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 That's going to be a heck of a gradient pattern on the EC ensembles and potential nail biter at times. By the end of the run the entire pattern retrogrades... the omega block toward Kamchatka and the PV from Baffin Bay west into NW Territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hard to tell where the pattern winds up by D15. EPO goes negative again but it appears to want to pop a PNA ridge. Might be ok for parts of New England... but I'd definitely feel better to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 That's going to be a heck of a gradient pattern on the EC ensembles and potential nail biter at times. not good for the MA then, ehh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 By the end of the run the entire pattern retrogrades... the omega block toward Kamchatka and the PV from Baffin Bay west into NW Territories. Kind of interesting how everything comes about. Still looks like enough polar flow and confluence to keep high pressure to our north for now, but it's close. The EC is trying to raise heights towards the Davis straits on this run, but there is a lot of work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 not good for the MA then, ehh? It might not be, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Would you mind telling me if it's good for Oklahoma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It might not be, unfortunately. <JI>then it's wrong, that's all<JI> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Would you mind telling me if it's good for Oklahoma? It looks warm for OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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