dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:30 AM, Dryslot said: We will watch the trends We may have to Tebow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:33 AM, CoastalWx said: The warmer (above MOS) temps lately are partly a result of no snowpack. There is a difference with temps right now. Snow will help sustain the cold across the Lakes and down from NNE. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:33 AM, dendrite said: We may have to Tebow it. I suggest everyone sleep, shower, drive, work in the Tebow position for the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:36 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly. With a low sun angle, the difference isn't as bad, but recall March 2010 when we were busting like 5-6 degrees higher than MOS on NW flow. No snow in Quebec helped with those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:33 AM, dendrite said: We may have to Tebow it. lol..Definitly, If you want to win put tebow in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:31 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll admit it...I was on the SWFE bandwagon until the month actually started, then I promptly jumped off. Agreed but it's all mostly irrelevant. None of us are disagreeing that a cold shot is coming, it's just the duration and form. Let's all enjoy the weather, it's the only weather we've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:29 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think so, too...but Sam tried to tell me otherwise. I said it yesterday as well. Snowpack is a critical ingredient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:37 AM, CoastalWx said: With a low sun angle, the difference isn't as bad, but recall March 2010 when we were busting like 5-6 degrees higher than MOS on NW flow. No snow in Quebec helped with those temps. Yeah...we had BTV in the WxChallenge with no snow in mid March. I think I finished 2nd overall in the country by knowing enough to go way above MOS. I think there were a handful of days where they were mixing up to H85 even on light wind days. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:38 AM, messenger said: Agreed but it's all mostly irrelevant. None of us are disagreeing that a cold shot is coming, it's just the duration and form. Let's all enjoy the weather, it's the only weather we've got. Yup. No sense in getting overly optimistic until we get within a few days of any event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We're basically changing from a shat show pattern to a marginal, pedestrian pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:51 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: We're basically changing from a shat show pattern to a marginal, pedastrian pattern. Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 12:51 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: We're basically changing from a shat show pattern to a marginal, pedestrian pattern. It's a huge difference. From historic non winter basically nationwide to relatively normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 1:13 AM, weathafella said: It's a huge difference. From historic non winter basically nationwide to relatively normal winter. Truth will be in the snowfall OTG nationawide in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Especially with a low sun angle still, I don't think snow cover is going to be the huge factor that busts up our winter. It's not going to be "Oh well we would've gotten 30 inches to end January, but darn, there wasn't any snow cover in the Midwest so instead we're sunny and in the 50's." There is snow cover immediately to our north and northwest, so that intrusions of arctic air, should the pattern allow, will not be significantly modified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 1:20 AM, messenger said: Truth will be in the snowfall OTG nationawide in a few weeks. Good post. If the coming pattern as advertised delivers, there should be substantial cover 40N and northward demo the Rockies eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/8/2012 at 4:23 PM, ravensrule said: How do you know the Broncos will not win?, do you not believe in jesus. Shame on you. On 1/8/2012 at 5:29 PM, scoob40 said: They'll need his help being a 9 point home dog ! I guess you became alot more religious tonight. P.S. You guys are lucky sob's drawing them, it is like a bye all the way to the championship game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/8/2012 at 10:25 PM, sbos_wx said: whats better besides euro? Nogaps? Nam? Ggem? Ukmet? Nope Just channeling Blizz. I like the GFS to a point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 One thing I started noticing on guidance today is that for the Thursday storm, there could be the threat of some marginal icing in the interior. Too far out to say much in the way of detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 1:35 AM, ravensrule said: I guess you became alot more religious tonight. P.S. You guys are lucky sob's drawing them, it is like a bye all the way to the championship game. We take them as they come, Home cooking and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 1:23 AM, wxwatcher91 said: Especially with a low sun angle still, I don't think snow cover is going to be the huge factor that busts up our winter. It's not going to be "Oh well we would've gotten 30 inches to end January, but darn, there wasn't any snow cover in the Midwest so instead we're sunny and in the 50's." There is snow cover immediately to our north and northwest, so that intrusions of arctic air, should the pattern allow, will not be significantly modified. I don't think people are thinking that..just in marginal cases like icing or borderline 32F snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Do people here think this will rank up with the January 2007 pattern flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 1:52 AM, CoastalWx said: I don't think people are thinking that..just in marginal cases like icing or borderline 32F snows. Exactly....he keeps sensationalizing the other perspective in order to garner more support for his stance. It matters.....no one said it's the difference between January 2011 and January 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 1:44 AM, ORH_wxman said: One thing I started noticing on guidance today is that for the Thursday storm, there could be the threat of some marginal icing in the interior. Too far out to say much in the way of detail. Perhaps the most positive sign of this winter. Many had totally written Thursday off early as nothing but a rain storm for all. Although still a rain storm for most the guidance continues to come in colder. It was pointed out on Thursday that the Euro ENS seemed to indicate that colder scenarios were on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 1:52 AM, CoastalWx said: I don't think people are thinking that..just in marginal cases like icing or borderline 32F snows. There's also only snow to our due north or NNW. There is no snow cover over most of the Great Lakes region so any air advecting in from the W is going over bare ground. It helps modify our airmasses before they get here, and thus sets us up for a little less wiggle room for the next event. Its never the primary driver, but it can begin to feedback on itself as a secondary variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 1:56 AM, Ginx said: Perhaps the most positive sign of this winter. Many had totally written Thursday off early as nothing but a rain storm for all. Although still a rain storm for most the guidance continues to come in colder. It was pointed out on Thursday that the Euro ENS seemed to point out that colder scenarios were on the table. We've seen events trend colder, then back pedal at the last moment...most notably the Dec 23 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 1:56 AM, ORH_wxman said: There's also only snow to our due north or NNW. There is no snow cover over most of the Great Lakes region so any air advecting in from the W is going over bare ground. It helps modify our airmasses before they get here, and thus sets us up for a little less wiggle room for the next event. Its never the primary driver, but it can begin to feedback on itself as a secondary variable. Yeah I don't know why Sam is trying to argue. Garbage airmass advecting over brown ground, or garbage airmass advecting over snow cover. That's a difference between 31F and 33-34F imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 1:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly....he keeps sensationalizing the other perspective in order to garner more support for his stance. It matters.....no one said it's the difference between January 2011 and January 2012. WTF? Sensationalizing in order to garner support? Yeah that's definitely how I get my kicks, trying to "garner support" on an online forum. On 1/9/2012 at 1:52 AM, CoastalWx said: I don't think people are thinking that..just in marginal cases like icing or borderline 32F snows. The reason I'm arguing is because that's definitely not our first concern. Sure it can feedback on itself as Will suggests, but plant a mega low over Alaska and over Greenland, the reason we're not getting snow here isn't because of insufficient snow cover to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The temperatures we've experienced this winter are typical for DC. The snowfall is typical for Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Tim Kelly (NECN) suggesting the event scooting by Monday night will develop offshore and lead to some blocking for Weds/Thursdays mess Also suggesting some snow possible for the Pats game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On 1/9/2012 at 2:30 AM, weathafella said: The temperatures we've experienced this winter are typical for DC. The snowfall is typical for Miami. I guess I am only a little behind average due to the October Beast snowfallwise. Ahead of last year, actually. That said, probably nothing to write home about for quite a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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