usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak The article was written this morning before today's guidance came in but I don't think it changes anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just read it...great article as usual..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just read it...great article as usual..... Thanks, hopefully it is not too technical for the general public. Most here will understand it but for the more casual reader, I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thanks, hopefully it is not too technical for the general public. Most here will understand it but for the more casual reader, I'm not so sure. I found it pretty easy to read and made some tweaks to make it more accessible. I really liked this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thanks, hopefully it is not too technical for the general public. Most here will understand it but for the more casual reader, I'm not so sure. all the articles on CWG are so high quality and refreshing, it would be ashame if they get lost in the mix. I don't know that the social media trend has been a positive one overall in terms of quality and reputation....But I don't want to bog down your thread with that stuff.....I do know that you will get one quick link on facebook for every 17 Camden status updates talking about how awesome it is that it is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 I found it pretty easy to read and made some tweaks to make it more accessible. I really liked this one. I liked the finished product. Your edits usually make me look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Joe Lundberg is not convinced a pattern change is going to happen: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/a-january-thaw/59946 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Agreed very good. I'm still not sure why the public needs to know about stratospheric warming but that was brought up by the hypesters first so worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Very nice write up. It's one of your better ones. Not that your others aren't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 all the articles on CWG are so high quality and refreshing, it would be ashame if they get lost in the mix. I don't know that the social media trend has been a positive one overall in terms of quality and reputation....But I don't want to bog down your thread with that stuff.....I do know that you will get one quick link on facebook for every 17 Camden status updates talking about how awesome it is that it is warm Thanks, Matt. Social media probably helps us more than hurts. While people are increasingly digesting info in these quick, substance-less snippets - we've built such a large network that it serves as a great way for us to promote our content and we can reach the people who are interested in digging deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Joe Lundberg is not convinced a pattern change is going to happen: http://www.accuweath...uary-thaw/59946 His write up is a good one. I think the pattern has changed but that doesn't mean we go into a cold pattern. Like him, I still see the lack of blocking over Greenland as a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Agreed very good. I'm still not sure why the public needs to know about stratospheric warming but that was brought up by the hypesters first so worth noting. I agree they don't. I wouldn't have mentioned it except that Bastardi, Margusity and DT all mentioned it. I wanted to put it in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thanks, Matt. Social media probably helps us more than hurts. While people are increasingly digesting info in these quick, substance-less snippets - we've built such a large network that it serves as a great way for us to promote our content and we can reach the people who are interested in digging deeper. on the precipice of our 1st 1-2" event, I look forward to CWG's dual live coverage from a salt dome and the empty shelves of a grocery store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I agree they don't. I wouldn't have mentioned it except that Bastardi, Margusity and DT all mentioned it. I wanted to put it in perspective. Yeah I hear ya. Glad the ostro quote made it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 on the precipice of our 1st 1-2" event, I look forward to CWG's dual live coverage from a salt dome and the empty shelves of a grocery store. Im pretty sure the Mayans foresaw Facebook as part of their prophecies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Im pretty sure the Mayans foresaw Facebook as part of their prophecies. I've wondered whether I should facebook for CWG but always end up decided it is too much trouble and that posting here is plenty enough for this troglodyte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Nice read. The NAO is def still a problem for the east as a whole even in this pattern change. I think the tendency for a -PNA is also going to be an issue...esp for the SE. I don't think it will be a uber -PNA, but it looks like the max ridging is in the Aleutians so even with neutral heights over W Canada, that couplet is -PNA. The spaghetti plots have been quite all over the place even though they are generally have the big ridging in the EPO region. I just took a look at the spaghetti plots for the 1/6 12z Euro ensembles and they are still have trouble with the magnitude of the ridging...some get it well up into the north pole region while others keep it a bit more muted down into mainland AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Nice read. The NAO is def still a problem for the east as a whole even in this pattern change. I think the tendency for a -PNA is also going to be an issue...esp for the SE. I don't think it will be a uber -PNA, but it looks like the max ridging is in the Aleutians so even with neutral heights over W Canada, that couplet is -PNA. The spaghetti plots have been quite all over the place even though they are generally have the big ridging in the EPO region. I just took a look at the spaghetti plots for the 1/6 12z Euro ensembles and they are still have trouble with the magnitude of the ridging...some get it well up into the north pole region while others keep it a bit more muted down into mainland AK. Thanks, I think the guys going for a major pattern change and a big winter in the east the latter half of Jan may be in for trouble because of both factors you mention. We will have more cross polar flow but there is a good chance that it ends up aimed at the west and that the southeast stays warm. Thank goodness for JB without him posting, I'd be doing less columns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thanks, hopefully it is not too technical for the general public. Most here will understand it but for the more casual reader, I'm not so sure. It is a good article but to be honest the general public probably might get lost reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Nice read. The NAO is def still a problem for the east as a whole even in this pattern change. I think the tendency for a -PNA is also going to be an issue...esp for the SE. I don't think it will be a uber -PNA, but it looks like the max ridging is in the Aleutians so even with neutral heights over W Canada, that couplet is -PNA. The spaghetti plots have been quite all over the place even though they are generally have the big ridging in the EPO region. I just took a look at the spaghetti plots for the 1/6 12z Euro ensembles and they are still have trouble with the magnitude of the ridging...some get it well up into the north pole region while others keep it a bit more muted down into mainland AK. that's OK....especially with ridging likely in the western CONUS.....at least it puts us in the mix for clippers, changeover events, weaker WAA/Overrunning events, miller B's.....We need 40N to do well in a PAC driven pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It is a good article but to be honest the general public probably might get lost reading that. It is nice to have content that challenges the public versus pandering to the lowest common denominator....there are plenty of other media outlets happy to provide dumbed down airy content Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thanks, I think the guys going for a major pattern change and a big winter in the east the latter half of Jan may be in for trouble because of both factors you mention. We will have more cross polar flow but there is a good chance that it ends up aimed at the west and that the southeast stays warm. Thank goodness for JB without him posting, I'd be doing less columns. Yeah I posted this in response to Scott (coastalwx) mentioning a tendency toward -PNA and +NAO I think the best description for this pattern change coming up is going from "Horrific" to "giving us a chance"...not going from horrific to epic. Maybe in February if we can get some Atlantic side cooperation, we can try and make it epic for a stretch, but this Jan 15-30 time period I see has "at least we have a shot"...it certainly could end up pretty good if we get a parade of storms where we are just far enough north, but its difficult to actually forecast that, because the details are what will make or break that pattern. Its certainly a big hemispheric shift, but for snow chances, it doesn't make it all of the sudden a great pattern. It does get some much better cold into Canada and upper plains/N Rockies...hopefully we see it spill eastward too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Really good article Wes. I think the technical flair of the article is great. If someone can't wrap their head around at least the very basics after reading it then they should stick to the TWC 5 day forecast. The pattern change is a painful grind towards "potentially" better weather and it's tough on us weenies. I know the expectation of the super positive long duration ao/nao combo to just magically flip to a perfect pattern isn't realistic but I know that's what we all want to see. At the very least, the upcoming pattern will give us some opportunity for something to sneak in the mid-range and give us something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 that's OK....especially with ridging likely in the western CONUS.....at least it puts us in the mix for clippers, changeover events, weaker WAA/Overrunning events, miller B's.....We need 40N to do well in a PAC driven pattern.... I'm a little worried at how much ridging will be there...we get a big ridge out there in the D7-8 range but its gone after that...however, that does not mean we cannot get some troughing along the Canadian coastline and a little downstream ridge in the rockies...or retrograde the troughing into the GOA far enough west to get a downstream western ridge. The transient ridges are hard to forecast anyway. The ensembles actually have a lot of disagreement about how the west is configured exactly...the details could make all the difference. The best agreement is that we erode the AK vortex, but details synoptically out west are still a bit fuzzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm a little worried at how much ridging will be there...we get a big ridge out there in the D7-8 range but its gone after that...however, that does not mean we cannot get some troughing along the Canadian coastline and a little downstream ridge in the rockies...or retrograde the troughing into the GOA far enough west to get a downstream western ridge. The transient ridges are hard to forecast anyway. The ensembles actually have a lot of disagreement about how the west is configured exactly...the details could make all the difference. The best agreement is that we erode the AK vortex, but details synoptically out west are still a bit fuzzy. The pattern seems to have been to pump up heights in the western Conus over and over....I realize these ridges are not stable so we need some timing....I'm fine with a storm track in the OV....with that pattern I think we are still in the mix for some front enders if we have cold air to work with for more than 48 hrs at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This past December was the highest AO/NAO combo by a mile over the last 60 years. One for the books. Looking back, is there anything that could have tipped us off in Oct/Nov? Such an anomalous pattern should have some early signs but I don't nearly have the knowledge as to the "whys" in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 This past December was the highest AO/NAO combo by a mile over the last 60 years. One for the books. Looking back, is there anything that could have tipped us off in Oct/Nov? Such an anomalous pattern should have some early signs but I don't nearly have the knowledge as to the "whys" in this case. I don't know. By mid November with the really strong positive AO, I think you could make a call that December was toast. I think I did that but before the AO sky rocketed, I'm not sure you could have, at least I couldn't have. I wonder what the 30 mb zonal winds were compared to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That is a nice article Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm a little worried at how much ridging will be there...we get a big ridge out there in the D7-8 range but its gone after that...however, that does not mean we cannot get some troughing along the Canadian coastline and a little downstream ridge in the rockies...or retrograde the troughing into the GOA far enough west to get a downstream western ridge. The transient ridges are hard to forecast anyway. The ensembles actually have a lot of disagreement about how the west is configured exactly...the details could make all the difference. The best agreement is that we erode the AK vortex, but details synoptically out west are still a bit fuzzy. I hope the 18Z gfs position of the ridge ends up being wrong because it would have people asking "what pattern change." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I hope the 18Z gfs position of the ridge ends up being wrong because it would have people asking "what pattern change." Wes, do you hide behind model runs with your "honest" thoughts on the pattern, or am I just paranoid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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