Rhino Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Glen just gave his updated forecast and it is disgusting. January +2 degrees /5 inches of snow FEB +3 Degrees/5 inches of snow march +3 degrees/2 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Glen just gave his updated forecast and it is disgusting. January +2 degrees /5 inches of snow FEB +3 Degrees/5 inches of snow march +3 degrees/2 inches of snow. Yes...BUT...with only a stated "60% chance of verifying"...wonder what his verification forecast was when he made his beginning of winter forecast...hmmm??!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yes...BUT...with only a stated "60% chance of verifying"...wonder what his verification forecast was when he made his beginning of winter forecast...hmmm??!!! This is already being discussed in the banter thread. Personally I like his probability curve as a way of presenting his forecast, since all meteorology is really just probability anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This is already being discussed in the banter thread. Personally I like his probability curve as a way of presenting his forecast, since all meteorology is really just probability anyway. Well, while it might not be what we want to hear...how about a round of applause for a major market TV met willing to devote airtime to going into some of the nuts and bolts of a long range forecast. Also, good to NBC10 management for giving Glenn the latitude to discuss the NAO during a broadcast, and not just on the web. I remember a few years back a heated discussion at one of the old EasternUswx conferences about the constraints of explaining the weather to a TV audience, and how you "can't get too technical or they'll tune you out." Don't know if Glenn's discussion of the positive NAO will make for a positive Nielsen rating...but I give him Kudos for trying to smarten things up rather than dumbing it down. I immediately linked his on air update to facebook. Also, really appreciate the probabalistic approach, especially for a long range forecast it makes sense to go that route. Jon in Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well, while it might not be what we want to hear...how about a round of applause for a major market TV met willing to devote airtime to going into some of the nuts and bolts of a long range forecast. Also, good to NBC10 management for giving Glenn the latitude to discuss the NAO during a broadcast, and not just on the web. I remember a few years back a heated discussion at one of the old EasternUswx conferences about the constraints of explaining the weather to a TV audience, and how you "can't get too technical or they'll tune you out." Don't know if Glenn's discussion of the positive NAO will make for a positive Nielsen rating...but I give him Kudos for trying to smarten things up rather than dumbing it down. I immediately linked his on air update to facebook. Also, really appreciate the probabalistic approach, especially for a long range forecast it makes sense to go that route. Jon in Jersey Agree on all points. Glenn is one of the last few class acts in broadcast meteorology. I feel like a fangirl when I say that, haha. (Though if you want some great met discussions on TV you've gotta check out Tom Skilling on WGN in Chicago. They give the guy almost 10 minutes every night.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 His temperature call isn't that different from the one in November except he warmed up February a couple of degrees...just dropped his snow down a lot. He was the most bullish on snow initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 His temperature call isn't that different from the one in November except he warmed up February a couple of degrees...just dropped his snow down a lot. He was the most bullish on snow initially. Yeah, his snowfall forecast in this update was lowered big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Glenn is able to convey the technical makeup of his forecasts without making people's eyes glaze over. Not easy to pull off, kudos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Snowfall is the hardest to predict and even if January and Feb are a little above normal we can still do well. Stating that it will be 2 or 3 above normal is the norm the last couple of years for that has been the case for all but a few months since March 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dankil13 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well, while it might not be what we want to hear...how about a round of applause for a major market TV met willing to devote airtime to going into some of the nuts and bolts of a long range forecast. Also, good to NBC10 management for giving Glenn the latitude to discuss the NAO during a broadcast, and not just on the web. I remember a few years back a heated discussion at one of the old EasternUswx conferences about the constraints of explaining the weather to a TV audience, and how you "can't get too technical or they'll tune you out." Don't know if Glenn's discussion of the positive NAO will make for a positive Nielsen rating...but I give him Kudos for trying to smarten things up rather than dumbing it down. I immediately linked his on air update to facebook. Also, really appreciate the probabalistic approach, especially for a long range forecast it makes sense to go that route. Jon in Jersey Caught the weather tis morning on the 11AM broadcast... I'd like to give management a round of applause for their new hire - Sheena Parveen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 *Good luck to Glenn! Also love how Glenn will go ahead and show euro maps with his on air forecast. *One nice coastal and a cold high could put his totals in jeopardy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Caught the weather tis morning on the 11AM broadcast... I'd like to give management a round of applause for their new hire - Sheena Parveen! I was wondering who she is since she was not on TV here before I left for vacation. I read that she came from the Tampa Bay, FL area. It sounds like she joined the NBC10 weather team and did not replace someone. http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/media/content/ex-wtvt-ch-13-forecaster-and-st-pete-native-sheena-parveen-joins-nbcs-wcau-tv-philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 First of all, thanks for the kind comments about last night. I was expecting to be slammed because of the mild forecast. A lot of people in our business don't realize how many weather fanatics are out there, and how others appreciate an attempt to explain the science, even if they don't really understand it. I wish I could hold off on the winter forecast until mid-December. It would have been MUCH more accurate the past 3 years. In one case, I remember having big second thoughts only a week after airing it. The problem is that our big ratings period is in November, not December. There is so much interest in these winter forecasts (I created a monster!) that we get higher ratings the night of the forecast. The other stations saw that, and now everyone does it, in November, and sometimes on the same night as mine. After seeing the early forecasts about to bust, I decided to not only update it, but also start using probabilities. Giving a specific snow total range has been the practice (one station even made a winter forecast with a single number, even with a decimal point!). But as you all know, forecasting is more about odds and probabilities, especially forecasting for an entire season. So I gave it a try last night. Normally, probabilities are not used in TV, since so many people misunderstand. This was an experiment. If it is accepted, I'll be doing more of that. Finally, regarding Sheena: she is finally the replacement for Doug Kammerer (who is now the Chief Met at WRC in Washington). The bad economy caused his position to not be filled for years. Sheena has a B.S. degree in Meteorology from Florida State, a top school, and is a terrific addition to our team. Thanks again for your support. And spread the word-the next big ratings month is February. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I was wondering who she is since she was not on TV here before I left for vacation. I read that she came from the Tampa Bay, FL area. It sounds like she joined the NBC10 weather team and did not replace someone. http://www.tampabay....tv-philadelphia That is just not fair, i am willing to move to Philly just to watch her weather reports. It will be the first time in my life i could care less if she forecasts snow or not . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Glenn, I saw this link: http://www.nbcphilad...-136784523.html There are a few things in here that I didn't think were fair. First of all, I don't have access/pay for Piers' Forecasts but I did hear about him last year with his amazing calls for the UK to see the coldest winter in 100 years. However, it isn't fair to say he was the only one who nailed the last two years. Most if not all the people I know of nailed 09-10 and a lot of people had the right idea about last year (several on this forum / new talent were great with the NAO idea) with front-loaded cold and February warm. Also, that is interesting about Jan 11-14 because I do think that period is threatening as well post-rainstorm. Of course, the wording is ambiguous and I would actually like to see the forecasts. Finally, taking away January 25, 2000 out of the mix of analogs to make a point about winters similar to this one and why snow will be nil isn't a good idea. It is like saying, for example, in the next El Nino year that's been running snowless, well it is similar to 82-83 and if you take away the Feb blizzard, it would have no snow as well like 97-98 and 72-73. There is nothing scientific about that. It is putting together facts in a way to make them indicate what you what them to indicate. January 25, 2000 didn't behave like models because of Quality Control issues, nothing else. Models had it out to sea because QC took away what they believed was an erroneous wind / ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think the forecast may be too far the other way this time, but it's certainly possible. I like how Glenn is willing to update and admits it's hard to forecast in Nov. On the other hand, forecasting in Nov. also makes for a big challenge. I think Jan will end up above normal, but will be colder and snowier the second half. I think Feb winds up below average temps with slightly above average snow. I think March is below average temps with above average snow. Total snow IMO is about 20-25 inches, down from my call of 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Reverse psychology Hurricane?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Glenn, I saw this link: http://www.nbcphilad...-136784523.html There are a few things in here that I didn't think were fair. First of all, I don't have access/pay for Piers' Forecasts but I did hear about him last year with his amazing calls for the UK to see the coldest winter in 100 years. However, it isn't fair to say he was the only one who nailed the last two years. Most if not all the people I know of nailed 09-10 and a lot of people had the right idea about last year (several on this forum / new talent were great with the NAO idea) with front-loaded cold and February warm. Also, that is interesting about Jan 11-14 because I do think that period is threatening as well post-rainstorm. Of course, the wording is ambiguous and I would actually like to see the forecasts. Finally, taking away January 25, 2000 out of the mix of analogs to make a point about winters similar to this one and why snow will be nil isn't a good idea. It is like saying, for example, in the next El Nino year that's been running snowless, well it is similar to 82-83 and if you take away the Feb blizzard, it would have no snow as well like 97-98 and 72-73. There is nothing scientific about that. It is putting together facts in a way to make them indicate what you what them to indicate. January 25, 2000 didn't behave like models because of Quality Control issues, nothing else. Models had it out to sea because QC took away what they believed was an erroneous wind / ob. If there is a professional who accurately predicted the past 2 winters, I would love to see it. Piers Corbyn's was the only one I am aware of. Please send me the November winter forecasts for whoever nailed them and I will gladly put them in a blog and follow them closely in the future. True seasonal forecasting should be a "fluid" process. Forecasts change as the evidence changes (at least they should), whether it's for a storm 3 days from now or an entire season. I am not permitted that luxury. My forecast must be made at a particular date in November (our main ratings period), and have no ability to say that I want to hold off another couple of weeks to see how some November index came in. But someone who picks up the pattern in December or January (or even the week after the original, "official" winter forecast) doesn't count in my book as nailing the winter. Finally, my memory is far from excellent, but I did write a paper on the January 2000 monumental bust, so there are some things I remember. This was not just a case of a single model, or even single model run of predicting the storm would run hundreds of miles out to sea. This was EVERY model, for EVERY run for a couple of days, at least. It was the biggest multi-state bust in my 39 years as a meteorologist (way worse than the March 2001 storm). EVERY forecaster I checked, from the great Greg Fishel in Raleigh, to Accuweather (predicting "partly sunny" for Philadelphia, even the night before 8-12" fell) and then up to New England. This storm was similar to a hurricane like "Wrong Way Lenny" in 1999 that tracked eastward across the entire Caribbean. If I was developing a forecast technique for that area, I would throw out the "once in a lifetime" freak storm. When I looked at monthly snowfall for seasons with December's like this one, the January 2000 number jumped out, very different from other years. Then it hit me. It may not be traditional scientific thinking, but when I'm doing a seasonal forecast, I just can't let a once in a generation storm to change the forecast. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If you go back and look at past posts there were people who had a good idea the last couple of years about thht year's winter ahead of time and things do change but just becasue they change after mid-november does'nt mean they are locked in for the winter, an example will be dec and january last year and then the change in feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Finally, regarding Sheena: she is finally the replacement for Doug Kammerer (who is now the Chief Met at WRC in Washington). The bad economy caused his position to not be filled for years. Sheena has a B.S. degree in Meteorology from Florida State, a top school, and is a terrific addition to our team. Glenn Glenn the philly forum is wondering when Sheena is going to create an account and make her first post . Maybe for February sweeps ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 . Glenn the philly forum is wondering when Sheena is going to create an account and make her first post . Maybe for February sweeps ? Sheena does already have an account, but not under her TV name. I have alerted her to the great resource of this forum, from the timely and responsible observations to the cutting-edge discussions of current storms and long-range. And it's not just our mets who have accounts. Some folks in the newsroom, including the website people, have accounts so they can monitor the site for observations, and especially pictures during storms. Glenn . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 . Sheena does already have an account, but not under her TV name. I have alerted her to the great resource of this forum, from the timely and responsible observations to the cutting-edge discussions of current storms and long-range. And it's not just our mets who have accounts. Some folks in the newsroom, including the website people, have accounts so they can monitor the site for observations, and especially pictures during storms. Glenn . that is pretty cool to know :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 . Sheena does already have an account, but not under her TV name. I have alerted her to the great resource of this forum, from the timely and responsible observations to the cutting-edge discussions of current storms and long-range. And it's not just our mets who have accounts. Some folks in the newsroom, including the website people, have accounts so they can monitor the site for observations, and especially pictures during storms. Glenn . Great resources indeed! Glad to hear others at nbc10 visit this place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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