michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 DISCLAIMER: I realize it's an OP run, and an 18z one at that, but man does the GFS get oogly beyond 300 hours. ugly is an understatement. But....and its not so much that 6/18z runs are garbage, but the longrange sensible weather forecasts flat out suck. For instance, the last 2 days have seen Jan 25th have had various GFS runs range from thicknesses in the 490s with below zero surface temps to now thicknesses in the 550s and temps probably in the 40s or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Board outcasts? Give me an effin break. This place is and always has been pro snow and cold. God forbid someone have a contrarian opinion...based off facts. You don't have to repeat it...I read you loud and clear. Good luck with the rest of winter. WOW. Just WOW. I dont even know wtf I did to you, I always respected your posts. I didnt jump on you (as you did rainman). Oh, this board is full of people who like snow/cold thats for certain. But those cold/snow lovers who actually view that the winter is definitely in the stages of turning around for the better are definitely in the minority to the cold/snow lovers who will not budge from their warm, snowless winter mantra until we are seeing the cold/snow occurring and sustaining itself in the present, nowtime, not in the longrange or forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Even josh said weeks ago and even before winter to forget about it being a snowcover winter - great call so far...but there is lots of work to do to get your above avg snowfall to come to frution. No doubt it could and probably does get real ugly again but for how long if it does - sure hope to gosh its nothing like the first half of winter and it would be hard for it to be I would hope.. Enjoy the next 10 days or w/e as it looks pretty dam good outside of a hopeful short week early week warm up with the system to the west.. I'll hold out hope for a little while yet that the longrange is not quite the doom and gloom vibe most board Mets, forum mall cops, and weenies with to many models are running with like they stole it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 And some people need to drink less. Haven't drank since the last Packers game but I am soon tonight Bottom line is you and timmy are the ones that douched out on rainman like you ran out of midol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thread Fail. This forum and it's patrons have been great this winter with awesome debates and top shelf analysis. The wacky winter we have had as of late has aided to the technicality and depth of discussion. You can't be bummed about how a season is progressing or how much precip there is or isn't. You must except it and learn from it. Another season will be here before you know it so don't get to hung up one for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 WOW. Just WOW. I dont even know wtf I did to you, I always respected your posts. I didnt jump on you (as you did rainman). Oh, this board is full of people who like snow/cold thats for certain. But those cold/snow lovers who actually view that the winter is definitely in the stages of turning around for the better are definitely in the minority to the cold/snow lovers who will not budge from their warm, snowless winter mantra until we are seeing the cold/snow occurring and sustaining itself in the present, nowtime, not in the longrange or forecast. You know Josh, sometimes it's ok to look outside the box and follow what the models/ensembles/pattern look like in the extended. And that's what I was doing. But was told that it wasn't welcomed due to bad science/poor reasoning. Look for yourself. Regardless, it was my thoughts and I'll stick to them. I sure as hell hope that it's cold and snowy, which I think chances are good for both in the next 10 days or so...but I only see what I see beyond that and I think it may not be as good...if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. As for respecting my posts, well that's your choice. I probably over-reacted and that's on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Even josh said weeks ago and even before winter to forget about it being a snowcover winter - great call so far...but there is lots of work to do to get your above avg snowfall to come to frution. No doubt it could and probably does get real ugly again but for how long if it does - sure hope to gosh its nothing like the first half of winter and it would be hard for it to be I would hope.. Enjoy the next 10 days or w/e as it looks pretty dam good outside of a hopeful short week early week warm up with the system to the west.. I'll hold out hope for a little while yet that the longrange is not quite the doom and gloom vibe most board Mets, forum mall cops, and weenies with to many models are running with like they stole it. Weve actually had quite a few days with a trace of snowcover this winter, but only 4 days with 1"+ (and 3 of those 4 days were barely 1"). Last winter through Jan 10th we already had 27 days with 1"+ snowcover and counting (most of those days were 5"+), en route to 81 days for the winter (avg is 49 days). As into stats as I am, I realize that this winter VERY likely will NOT end up in the extreme variety for snowfall. My initial call of 55"+ for DTW is looking slimmer and slimmer, but at the same time, with 6.7" already logged at DTW and 3+ months of measurable snow to go, (plus a pattern seemingly turning active), I see the chances of making the top 20 least snowy winters as very very slim here (I wouldnt root for the futility record ever anyway). So not holding a candle to last winters snowcover, and likely not seeing either extreme for seasonal snowfall, Im just going to enjoy whatever winter we get, and hope the pattern change that so many are honking for indeed means business, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just wow. Pattern is changing; however; blocking is not staying in one location and locking. Starting with this coming storm the ~2nd half of winter will be better then the first half. Anyone expecting a prolonged blocking and continuous cold is just not understanding the global setup. It is just not that winter. Maybe one of these SSW events knock us into a decent pattern for a while but a 6+ week of continous cold just does not look like it is going to happen unless things drastically change in the next couple weeks. Right now we have cold air that looks to hanging around the US/Canada border states. Storms/energy coming in from the Pacific. Hopefully some significant or major storms will slam some of us. Unfortunately there will be meltdowns too (so it looks right now). But there is now cold around too (which was not there much at all for the first half of winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe the pattern does turn back to crap after 10 days but at some point you have to take 10-15 day progs for what they are worth. We are seeing substantial changes and it's well known that models/ensembles often struggle during these times. The next week and a half looks more wintry than not...let's appreciate that and see how the current long range trends as we get closer. Also, you have to be careful with what the mets say...a lot of them have an east coast focus so when they say the pattern looks bad they might be talking more about that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You know Josh, sometimes it's ok to look outside the box and follow what the models/ensembles/pattern look like in the extended. And that's what I was doing. But was told that it wasn't welcomed due to bad science/poor reasoning. Look for yourself. Regardless, it was my thoughts and I'll stick to them. I sure as hell hope that it's cold and snowy, which I think chances are good for both in the next 10 days or so...but I only see what I see beyond that and I think it may not be as good...if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. As for respecting my posts, well that's your choice. I probably over-reacted and that's on me. Well if someone told u bad science/reasoning, thats wrong on their part. I didnt see it and I know it wasnt me. Clearly the op models in the LR are junk, so trends/science/reasoning are all we have in the past 10 day area. I know very little about that stuff, the only thing I know very good is climo/past weather. Are certainly hope you are wrong too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just wow. Pattern is changing; however; blocking is not staying in one location and locking. Starting with this coming storm the ~2nd half of winter will be better then the first half. Anyone expecting a prolonged blocking and continuous cold is just not understanding the global setup. It is just not that winter. Maybe one of these SSW events knock us into a decent pattern for a while but a 6+ week of continous cold just does not look like it is going to happen unless things drastically change in the next couple weeks. Right now we have cold air that looks to hanging around the US/Canada border states. Storms/energy coming in from the Pacific. Hopefully some significant or major storms will slam some of us. Unfortunately there will be meltdowns too (so it looks right now). But there is now cold around too (which was not there much at all for the first half of winter). Bingo. This lack of blocking is making whatever shifts we have almost useless. The only strong feature is the raging PAC jet. That is almost acting like a block that's preventing the cold Canadian air from spilling. Also..where in the **** is the Greenland Block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe the pattern does turn back to crap after 10 days but at some point you have to take 10-15 day progs for what they are worth. We are seeing substantial changes and it's well known that models/ensembles often struggle during these times. The next week and a half looks more wintry than not...let's appreciate that and see how the current long range trends as we get closer. Also, you have to be careful with what the mets say...a lot of them have an east coast focus so when they say the pattern looks bad they might be talking more about that region. Agree, honestly other than today's runs I don't see anything too warm and even at that we are talking about stuff in and around 240. It's like talking about an elusive cool down out in no man's land. Only this time its torch, I would be skeptical of anything beyond 180 anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe the pattern does turn back to crap after 10 days but at some point you have to take 10-15 day progs for what they are worth. We are seeing substantial changes and it's well known that models/ensembles often struggle during these times. The next week and a half looks more wintry than not...let's appreciate that and see how the current long range trends as we get closer. Also, you have to be careful with what the mets say...a lot of them have an east coast focus so when they say the pattern looks bad they might be talking more about that region. the bolded I have found to be so, SO true! As for the models struggling during pattern changes, one of the dtx mets brought this up days ago, and I remember it from years past. They seem to struggle mightily. As I said, the other day the 1/8/12-00z GFS had DTW seeing thicknesses in the 490s with below zero sfc temps for Jan 25th. todays 1/10/12-18z has DTW in the 550 thickness range (temps probably 40s+, idk exactly because meteostar didnt update). I mean really, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Jokes aside, I have noticed the tide has turned on this board, probably due to the way this winter has started. Those who now talk of the cold and snow coming are the board outcasts. I dont peak at the models/read the board as intensely as some, but the general vibe the past week is....a longrange run shows very cold weather, its something like "wow thats cold, but its fantasy land and many ensembles dont support it", then one longrange run will show much milder weather than its previous run, and its "im starting to think this pattern change is not happening". This is all paraphrasing and aimed at no one individual, but the bottom line, until we are seeing a colder/snowier sustained pattern happening in now-time, no matter how good the outlook may be, any "good" (cold/snowy) model runs will be scrutinized to find anything wrong with them, and any "bad" (mild) model runs will be quickly labeled as "pattern change delayed or denied". Same thing wrt mets. We have seen so many mets in recent days calling for a dramatic, some say historic, pattern change, but if one of two says no, they are the ones many on here will say "so and so says the pattern change is not happening". JMHO reading this board lately. the real issue is that since late november you have turned into this #unrealisticallyoptimisticsupericepussy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the real issue is that since late november you have turned into this #unrealisticallyoptimisticsupericepussy. and u have loved trolling me. whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thread Fail. This forum and it's patrons have been great this winter with awesome debates and top shelf analysis. The wacky winter we have had as of late has aided to the technicality and depth of discussion. You can't be bummed about how a season is progressing or how much precip there is or isn't. You must except it and learn from it. Another season will be here before you know it so don't get to hung up one for too long. "Enjoy the weather. It's the only weather you got." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the real issue is that since late november you have turned into this #unrealisticallyoptimisticsupericepussy. and u have loved trolling me. whatever. Not to stir the pot but both of these are correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Agree, honestly other than today's runs I don't see anything too warm and even at that we are talking about stuff in and around 240. It's like talking about an elusive cool down out in no man's land. Only this time its torch, I would be skeptical of anything beyond 180 anyways. Heck there are times I wish I would not look at the models past 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the real issue is that since late november you have turned into this #unrealisticallyoptimisticsupericepussy. IMO you and a couple other posters' hard ons for breaking their cities' respective seasonal low snowfall record is just as or even more unrealistic than Mich's optimism.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Isn't it characteristic of La Nina's to have greater variability in temps than excessive cold locking in for any great length of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 and u have loved trolling me. whatever. i have... it's only because of what i just stated though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Bingo. This lack of blocking is making whatever shifts we have almost useless. The only strong feature is the raging PAC jet. That is almost acting like a block that's preventing the cold Canadian air from spilling. Also..where in the **** is the Greenland Block? It's just one of the Alaska winters. Seeing those pictures & youtube video in Valdez and surround towns has been incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 IMO you and a couple other posters' hard on for breaking their cities' respective seasonal low snowfall record is just as unrealistic.. GFS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS!!! I'm a no doubt.. Not ashamed of it... The board can't realistically be all full of future Izzi's/Skillings like yourself... BTW been a while since you made your great snowfall maps. I've always loved em, looking forward to one for this upcoming storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Isn't it characteristic of La Nina's to have greater variability in temps than excessive cold locking in for any great length of time? Depends on other factors. Nina is just one of the players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Maybe the pattern does turn back to crap after 10 days but at some point you have to take 10-15 day progs for what they are worth. We are seeing substantial changes and it's well known that models/ensembles often struggle during these times. The next week and a half looks more wintry than not...let's appreciate that and see how the current long range trends as we get closer. Also, you have to be careful with what the mets say...a lot of them have an east coast focus so when they say the pattern looks bad they might be talking more about that region. That's a fair point but the -PNA/sinking AO pattern seems to me to favor latitudinally based gradient pattern. Thus, the guidance provided by SNE mets can be applicable over here. As for the rest of your comments, I agree to an extent but I don't think we should be proscribed from talking about potential pitfalls. This is not the second coming of December 2000. It's a pattern change, but it's a perilous one at that. And that's not just 10-15 days down the road. We've already seen a chink in the armor with next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 IMO you and a couple other posters' hard ons for breaking their cities' respective seasonal low snowfall record is just as or even more unrealistic than Mich's optimism.. Much much more unrealistic. Chicagos all-time record is 9.8", they have to get LESS than 7.9 inches in the next 3+ MONTHS to achieve that! Do you have any idea how extremely, extremely unlikely it is? I mean, even if the pattern change was a complete fail, and its a winter full of bare ground for Chicago, do you know how hard it would be to go that long without that much snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Depends on other factors. Nina is just one of the players on the field. I'd argue La Nina has been completely overwhelmed this winter, so far. The observed temp anomalies are almost the antithesis of what you'd find in a typical Nina. The next couple of weeks though are going to start changing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 i have... it's only because of what i just stated though. Yup, it started back in early December when i said models were performing horribly for SE MI (which they 100% were at the time, for like 5 events in a row LOCALLY). Also, you want to talk unrealistic? Chicago getting less than 8 inches of snow in the next 3+ months. THAT is unrealistic. Funny, dont ever see you call out our regions most famous palm-planting warmingsta for adding nothing to the board other than warmth gloating, trolling, or above all else, outrageous predictions. I guess its all personal. Whatever. Troll on. I will keep my fingers crossed the snow stays away from Chicago the rest of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Much much more unrealistic. Chicagos all-time record is 9.8", they have to get LESS than 7.9 inches in the next 3+ MONTHS to achieve that! Do you have any idea how extremely, extremely unlikely it is? I mean, even if the pattern change was a complete fail, and its a winter full of bare ground for Chicago, do you know how hard it would be to go that long without that much snowfall? a good el niño and a supper block..that's what it would need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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