michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Would be nice. Personally I would rather we bust hard on this winter and get it over and out of here. We are due for a **** winter..we really are..forget, forgive and move on. Lets face it bro. We technically lost 1/3rd or more of our Winter to a torch. Spring Robins and tulips will be here before you know u it. Also a fresh severe weather season:-)!! Tiger bats will be a cracking in no time. Still 2/3 of winter left. As due as we are for a ****ty winter, never want to see that happening. What the end result will be remains to be seen, but clearly we are making a turn to more sustained wintry weather. By sustained I dont mean we will be in the deepfreeze the whole time, or the historic pattern change that many mets are calling for, but the signs are there that we are almost surely entering a much wintrier period than what we saw in December, when 1 or 2 days of cold/snow was followed by much longer period mild. Models are having a tough time with it, violently changing every run, not to mention we had a strat warming event that recently ended. And IF the pattern change got delayed more and more, you can probably kiss those spring tulips goodbye for a longtime. My fav example: the warm winter of 1982-83 was a snowless hell, only 9" at DTW thru March 19th, all in spits...then spring came and very cold weather came, along with 11" of snow to bump the season up to 20", and a very delayed spring. I was born on May 8th, and have a pic of my mom holding me as a newborn in front of the house on May 9th or 10th (whatever day I came home) and the trees just had red buds on them, clearly a WAY delayed spring. A non-winter followed by a non-spring would make almost no one happy. Severe I can take or leave, though it will be nice once Tiger baseball starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's only the 12z models (GFS/GEFS/EURO) today that have sizeably, and abruptly, changed their tune wrt to the "pattern change". And even if everything unfolded exactly as depicted, it still would be better than the setup we've had for the last 8 weeks. Frankly, it's a decent gradient type pattern being shown on both models, which can be profitable if the baroclinic zone sets up in the right spot. I agree with Hoosier that next week and beyond will turn out better the further north you go. Eg, I'll be flabbergasted if the UP of MI is still hurting by the last week of January. I-70 corridor, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's only the 12z models (GFS/GEFS/EURO) today that have sizeably, and abruptly, changed their tune wrt to the "pattern change". And even if everything unfolded exactly as depicted, it still would be better than the setup we've had for the last 8 weeks. Frankly, it's a decent gradient type pattern being shown on both models, which can be profitable if the baroclinic zone sets up in the right spot. I agree with Hoosier that next week and beyond will turn out better the further north you go. Eg, I'll be flabbergasted if the UP of MI is still hurting by the last week of January. I-70 corridor, not so much. Euro didnt change its tune at all it seems. It has us in the DEEP freeze at the end of the run. Really only has a few mild days early next week, imo thats not an axing of the change at all. We had a few cold days during our mild Dec/early Jan, doesnt mean it wasnt a very mild period overall. And yes the UP looks to be getting some good snow. As I told Sparty early, we (you included) have a good chance of benefiting from the gradient pattern with our northern location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro didnt change its tune at all it seems. It has us in the DEEP freeze at the end of the run. Really only has a few mild days early next week, imo thats not an axing of the change at all. We had a few cold days during our mild Dec/early Jan, doesnt mean it wasnt a very mild period overall. And yes the UP looks to be getting some good snow. As I told Sparty early, we (you included) have a good chance of benefiting from the gradient pattern with our northern location. I seem to recall the EURO/GGEM being in the deep freeze from the 13th on out camp. Now at 0z, and especially 12z, the EURO has come more in the GFS camp of featuring that warmup midweek next week. I'll take a gander at the EURO ensembles to see what they have to say. But it is at least a little bit of a hiccup for next week. And I agree with your last sentence. This could be some exciting times coming up the next couple of weeks. But gradient patterns are risky propositions because slight strengthening of the SE ridge or amplification of the -PNA trough, and we're watching lows track over our heads. So nothing is a foregone conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 <p>12Z GFS... WOW!!! </p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro didnt change its tune at all it seems. It has us in the DEEP freeze at the end of the run. Really only has a few mild days early next week, imo thats not an axing of the change at all. We had a few cold days during our mild Dec/early Jan, doesnt mean it wasnt a very mild period overall. And yes the UP looks to be getting some good snow. As I told Sparty early, we (you included) have a good chance of benefiting from the gradient pattern with our northern location. Keep in mind though that the euro has been showing super cold in its extended for almost a week now but it hasnt come into play. Also NAO goes + . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 <p>12Z GFS... WOW!!! </p> I have absolutely no skill at reading maps above 200mb. Can you explain the implications? Looks sort of like a cross-polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I have absolutely no skill at reading maps above 200mb. Can you explain the implications? Looks sort of like a cross-polar flow. It's a severe weakening and total split of the PV at almost all stratospheric levels... 5-10mb gets especially annihalated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's a severe weakening and total split of the PV at almost all stratospheric levels... 5-10mb gets especially annihalated. Ah, I see. One half of the PV over NA, the other over Siberia/Scandinavia? Looks good except for it being a D16 prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ah, I see. One half of the PV over NA, the other over Siberia/Scandinavia? Looks good except for it being a D16 prog. Which is why I included hour 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sorry, but I don't get all the talk about the "models backing off" or how the pattern might not change or whatever. There's a 0% chance that it doesn't change. Mainly because it's already changing. This has been discussed in so much detail in this thread and in so many other places. The cold air is in the process of being forced in Canada as we speak. Not to mention that the models aren't actually backing off on anything anyway... Let's try to keep the discussion in this related to the pattern change, instead of some supposed absence of one, which either bad science and/or misinformation and therefore has no place here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sorry, but I don't get all the talk about the "models backing off" or how the pattern might not change or whatever. There's a 0% chance that it doesn't change. Mainly because it's already changing. This has been discussed in so much detail in this thread and in so many other places. The cold air is in the process of being forced in Canada as we speak. Not to mention that the models aren't actually backing off on anything anyway... Let's try to keep the discussion in this related to the pattern change, instead of some supposed absence of one, which either bad science and/or misinformation and therefore has no place here. I don't know who this is directed at, but you should probably tone down the inflammatory language. If you compare today's 12z EURO with yesterday's 12z EURO, there is definitely a change with how the northern stream s/w over southern Canada is handled next week. It doesn't mean that a pattern change hasn't happened, or further changes aren't going to occur, but it does mean that 1-2 days next week looke substantially warmer than they did 24 hours ago. GGEM has been similar. And if you want verification, here's a couple of pro-mets implicitly stating the same: http://www.americanw...ts/page__st__35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sorry, but I don't get all the talk about the "models backing off" or how the pattern might not change or whatever. There's a 0% chance that it doesn't change. Mainly because it's already changing. This has been discussed in so much detail in this thread and in so many other places. The cold air is in the process of being forced in Canada as we speak. Not to mention that the models aren't actually backing off on anything anyway... Let's try to keep the discussion in this related to the pattern change, instead of some supposed absence of one, which either bad science and/or misinformation and therefore has no place here. lol, who the hell are you? Bottom line is, what will do the pattern do for everyone's backyard? Sure it's changing in Northern America...nobody denied that. But sensible weather for the bulk of posters in this forum won't change much outside a few more cold shots that have been missing lately. Overall, temps will remain above normal and snowfall will be below normal...for most of the people here. And as such, there are signs past 10 days that revert back to the same crappy pattern. Go through the other forums on here and read what the meteorologists are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol, who the hell are you? Bottom line is, what will do the pattern do for everyone's backyard? Sure it's changing in Northern America...nobody denied that. But sensible weather for the bulk of posters in this forum won't change much outside a few more cold shots that have been missing lately. Overall, temps will remain above normal and snowfall will be below normal...for most of the people here. And as such, there are signs past 10 days that revert back to the same crappy pattern. Go through the other forums on here and read what the meteorologists are saying. He douched. Hopefully he learns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Jeez, now the weather board cops jump all over a cold miser too. Some people need snow and to get laid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 He douched. Hopefully he learns. If someone wants to disagree or debate things, that's great. The last part of his post wasn't needed. Just poor taste IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Jeez, now the weather board cops jump all over a cold miser too. Some people need snow and to get laid. And some people need to drink less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 And some people need to drink less. Its gonna get coooooldd, brrrrrrrrrrrr .. Quit trying to be a realist/ debbie downer in hopes that you don't jinx yourself.. Your gonna get buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol...what's all this about. The pattern is changing...it's a different large scale regime than what we've been in so far this winter. Canada is loading with cold which will be available to tap into, although the Atlantic side may not cooperate all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't know who this is directed at, but you should probably tone down the inflammatory language. If you compare today's 12z EURO with yesterday's 12z EURO, there is definitely a change with how the northern stream s/w over southern Canada is handled next week. It doesn't mean that a pattern change hasn't happened, or further changes aren't going to occur, but it does mean that 1-2 days next week looke substantially warmer than they did 24 hours ago. GGEM has been similar. And if you want verification, here's a couple of pro-mets implicitly stating the same: http://www.americanw...ts/page__st__35 As I recall, a few days ago, the Euro actually had the mjo going back into dreaded territory (per Harry) and when I peaked at it it had a milder look. While todays 12z might not be as cold as yesterdays 12z, its still colder than the euro runs from 2-3 days ago. So its all relative I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol, who the hell are you? Bottom line is, what will do the pattern do for everyone's backyard? Sure it's changing in Northern America...nobody denied that. But sensible weather for the bulk of posters in this forum won't change much outside a few more cold shots that have been missing lately. Overall, temps will remain above normal and snowfall will be below normal...for most of the people here. And as such, there are signs past 10 days that revert back to the same crappy pattern. Go through the other forums on here and read what the meteorologists are saying. Thats a very bold statement imo. Temps above and snow below normal for most on here? Im definitely not seeing that when I peak at the longrange models/trends. Will be VERY interesting to see where this thread is 2 weeks from now. VERY interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Its gonna get coooooldd, brrrrrrrrrrrr .. Quit trying to be a realist/ debbie downer in hopes that you don't jinx yourself.. Your gonna get buried lol, if there's anybody in our region that's NOT going to get "buried", it's me. I'll settle for snow I can make a footprint in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 To be clear, I do agree that that the next 10 days or so will offer some wintry chances for a good chunk of the region. But my point was what happens after that. Due to the lack of blocking and the AK vortex returning, we probably warm again/go back to a crappy pattern unless we can get some PNA love. But hey, I'm apparently an idiot and a board cop (so lame BowMe). Point taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 To be clear, I do agree that that the next 10 days or so will offer some wintry chances for a good chunk of the region. But my point was what happens after that. Due to the lack of blocking and the AK vortex returning, we probably warm again/go back to a crappy pattern unless we can get some PNA love. But hey, I'm apparently an idiot and a board cop (so lame BowMe). Point taken. Those don't look bad at all... And besides its one run only and the 10 day plus GFS we are talking about.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thats a very bold statement imo. Temps above and snow below normal for most on here? Im definitely not seeing that when I peak at the longrange models/trends. Will be VERY interesting to see where this thread is 2 weeks from now. VERY interesting. Good for you then. I'll try to make my exit from this thread a graceful one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 To be clear, I do agree that that the next 10 days or so will offer some wintry chances for a good chunk of the region. But my point was what happens after that. Due to the lack of blocking and the AK vortex returning, we probably warm again/go back to a crappy pattern unless we can get some PNA love. But hey, I'm apparently an idiot and a board cop (so lame BowMe). Point taken. DISCLAIMER: I realize it's an OP run, and an 18z one at that, but man does the GFS get oogly beyond 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Jeez, now the weather board cops jump all over a cold miser too. Some people need snow and to get laid. Jokes aside, I have noticed the tide has turned on this board, probably due to the way this winter has started. Those who now talk of the cold and snow coming are the board outcasts. I dont peak at the models/read the board as intensely as some, but the general vibe the past week is....a longrange run shows very cold weather, its something like "wow thats cold, but its fantasy land and many ensembles dont support it", then one longrange run will show much milder weather than its previous run, and its "im starting to think this pattern change is not happening". This is all paraphrasing and aimed at no one individual, but the bottom line, until we are seeing a colder/snowier sustained pattern happening in now-time, no matter how good the outlook may be, any "good" (cold/snowy) model runs will be scrutinized to find anything wrong with them, and any "bad" (mild) model runs will be quickly labeled as "pattern change delayed or denied". Same thing wrt mets. We have seen so many mets in recent days calling for a dramatic, some say historic, pattern change, but if one of two says no, they are the ones many on here will say "so and so says the pattern change is not happening". JMHO reading this board lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Those don't look bad at all... And besides its one run only and the 10 day plus GFS we are talking about.. That's pretty bad. PV well north of Hudson Bay. No help from the atlantic. -PNA. Ridge that was over alaska displaced too far to the N & W. It looks sort of ok because heights across the east are suppressed, but I'm not sure of the causation behind that. Assuming all the other teleconnectors are modelled correctly, I'd figure the SE ridge would be more prominent than displayed. But I'm strictly speaking about what the model shows verbatim. This is the same model that was showing wall to wall cold yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Jokes aside, I have noticed the tide has turned on this board, probably due to the way this winter has started. Those who now talk of the cold and snow coming are the board outcasts. I dont peak at the models/read the board as intensely as some, but the general vibe the past week is....a longrange run shows very cold weather, its something like "wow thats cold, but its fantasy land and many ensembles dont support it", then one longrange run will show much milder weather than its previous run, and its "im starting to think this pattern change is not happening". This is all paraphrasing and aimed at no one individual, but the bottom line, until we are seeing a colder/snowier sustained pattern happening in now-time, no matter how good the outlook may be, any "good" (cold/snowy) model runs will be scrutinized to find anything wrong with them, and any "bad" (mild) model runs will be quickly labeled as "pattern change delayed or denied". Same thing wrt mets. We have seen so many mets in recent days calling for a dramatic, some say historic, pattern change, but if one of two says no, they are the ones many on here will say "so and so says the pattern change is not happening". JMHO reading this board lately. Board outcasts? Give me an effin break. This place is and always has been pro snow and cold. God forbid someone have a contrarian opinion...based off facts. You don't have to repeat it...I read you loud and clear. Good luck with the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Good for you then. I'll try to make my exit from this thread a graceful one. was I insulting you or something? I just have the complete opposite opinion from you on the matter. I just meant in 2 weeks it will be interesting to see who was right, because sustained or not, it appears that the next 10-14 days could be a period of below normal temps for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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