Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 gfs has the 0 850 line over northern AL at 192 hr. Euro has it over GRR. no doubt gfs will begin to collapse to the euro and the zonal pac flow forecasts will win out. A pattern change? yep, for Canada and northern tier states. What year was it when it stayed brutal cold over Canada throughout all of January with record warmth over the Conus? It was '01 or '02 I believe and it was the year that JB claimed January would be the coldest on record and it turned out one of the warmest on record. He said he nailed the 500mb forecast but it didn't work out at the surface 2001-2002 was when he thought January would be brutal and it was a bust pretty much everywhere, including Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 From part of the Area Forecast Discussion out of the NWS in Northern Indiana at 424pm est today... .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LONG LATITUDINAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SIG HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES MID NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CAA PER AN ADVECTING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS WILL FALL NEARLY 20 DEGREES C...WITH PERTURBED NW FLOW OFFERING SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACTIVATE. LONG TRAJECTORY FLOW WITH MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE SUPERIOR AGGREGATE AFFECTS WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SOME OF THE NW ZONES. LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MODIFY AS PAC ORIGIN ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE LATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOW BLOCKING WITH GULF OF ALASKA REX BLOCK RIDGING /CONTINUALLY ADVERTISED IN THE ECMWF/ MAY SUPPORT A SIG COLD SPELL OUTSIDE THE PERIOD BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PREVALENT PAC FLOW REGIME THIS WINTER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION REMAINS LOW ATTM...GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF GREENLAND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Traverse City has been at or below their normal low temp twice in the last 60 days:( New CPC outlooks aren't nearly as exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 gfs has the 0 850 line over northern AL at 192 hr. Euro has it over GRR. no doubt gfs will begin to collapse to the euro and the zonal pac flow forecasts will win out. A pattern change? yep, for Canada and northern tier states. What year was it when it stayed brutal cold over Canada throughout all of January with record warmth over the Conus? It was '01 or '02 I believe and it was the year that JB claimed January would be the coldest on record and it turned out one of the warmest on record. He said he nailed the 500mb forecast but it didn't work out at the surface e Yep, I remember his Vodka Cold, Hawaiian traffic cop low pressures, etc... This winter is looking more and more like a repeat of that wretched winter. Hopefully '12-'13 will be a major turnaround like '02-'03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hopefully '12-'13 will be a major turnaround like '02-'03. Sorry, next three winters after this are locked in to be torches http://www.accuweath...s-could-m/36990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sorry, next three winters after this are locking in to be torches http://www.accuweath...s-could-m/36990 ...After seeing that, I might plant banana trees in the back yard next fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That should get a few weenies to sign up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Larry cosgrove not too impressed with cold over the country to end the month..seasonal trend FTW. snow or no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean at 240 hours. Not a bad gradient that could produce some clipper action. I'd rather be north than south of course...but could be time for a few to make some hay before the pattern possibly flips back/retrogrades down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 might have to print that out.. make a nice archery target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Holy crap!! Those were some amazing pics! And you cant even use the old saying "the rich get richer". Its beyond that. Valdez AS IT IS is the snowiest city in the U.S. with an avg of 326". And they are seeing record snow for THEM. Meanwhile...the continental 48 so far has seen below to much below normal snowfall nearly across the board, from the snowless Sierra to green New England. Luckily it looks like some white is in store for the north in a few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 so we go zonal with a tight gradient. Can't wait to see more modified PAC air. Like stated before the pattern change is gonna come in installments. IF the pattern change comes in installments, itd be the best case scenario for our area imo. A tight gradient could be golden for our area with a possible train of L's/clippers. Once, or if, the "vodka" cold gets locked in, count on lots of supression where we can hopefully snag a clipper or two that doesnt track well south of us. Of course, this would be fine for me if we have a nice snowcover courtesy of the tight gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 And you cant even use the old saying "the rich get richer". Its beyond that. Valdez AS IT IS is the snowiest city in the U.S. with an avg of 326". And they are seeing record snow for THEM. Meanwhile...the continental 48 so far has seen below to much below normal snowfall nearly across the board, from the snowless Sierra to green New England. Luckily it looks like some white is in store for the north in a few days! It looks like early April where I live. Lots of bare spots with dirty, hard snow piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It looks like early April where I live. Lots of bare spots with dirty, hard snow piles. Hopefully you will get hammered with this coming system & LES!!! Hey I might be up in the Keweenaw this summer. Such a beautiful area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Although it would be kinda cool to make it an entire year without getting a 1" snowfall(Feb 6th), it's looking like that streak will be difficult to continue much longer. If the models are correct about the upcoming pattern change, there should be a series of at least weak disturbances riding the fast w/wnw flow across the region. Any or all of them could drop 1+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Welcome to wonderful Valdez Alaska....... bump! Another 9 to 17 inches expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GEFS have us torching by next Monday and beyond. Starting to think this so called pattern change is bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GEFS have us torching by next Monday and beyond. Starting to think this so called pattern change is bunk. Yay! Oh, did I say that out loud? That was my wallet talking.. Utilities bills so far have been lower this winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yay! Oh, did I say that out loud? That was my wallet talking.. Utilities bills so far have been lower this winter.... Enjoy your cold April and May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Enjoy your cold April and May. That's what I'm concerned about.. Sometime the other shoe has to drop, hopefully it won't be springtime. How much would it suck to not only have a crappy winter, but a slow severe weather season. Talk about a double whammy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That's what I'm concerned about.. Sometime the other shoe has to drop, hopefully it won't be springtime. How much would it suck to not only have a crappy winter, but a slow severe weather season. Talk about a double whammy! Ha, I doubt we have a cold Spring...that's just me trolling the warmwantistas/trolls of the forum. Maybe the other shoe will drop by next December...we can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GEFS have us torching by next Monday and beyond. Starting to think this so called pattern change is bunk. It will probably be better/more sustained roughly north of 40N at least for the next week or 2. That brief (hopefully) warmup early next week may be enough to wipe out a lot of the snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It will probably be better/more sustained roughly north of 40N at least for the next week or 2. That brief (hopefully) warmup early next week may be enough to wipe out a lot of the snow though. I haven't seen the 12z GEFS yet, but the 0z and especially the 6z runs kept all the cold air in western Canada/Pac NW...with some intrusion into the northern Plains. Otherwise, it's solidly above normal for everyone else (Monday and beyond on average). Still can get a winter/snow event or two I suppose, but it's not exactly pretty. At the end of the run, it's full retrogression and we go back to what we've been seeing for the past couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I haven't seen the 12z GEFS yet, but the 0z and especially the 6z runs kept all the cold air in western Canada/Pac NW...with some intrusion into the northern Plains. Otherwise, it's solidly above normal for everyone else (Monday and beyond on average). Still can get a winter/snow event or two I suppose, but it's not exactly pretty. At the end of the run, it's full retrogression and we go back to what we've been seeing for the past couple of weeks. I can snag my 2-3 Thursday and still be in play for sub 9"....it's called having your cake and eating it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I can snag my 2-3 Thursday and still be in play for sub 9"....it's called having your cake and eating it too. I'm not sure if you saw my post about the winter of 1936-37 in the general Jan thread. I can totally see that happening. Imagine you and Joe popping the champagne on a record least snowy winter and along comes a late March 3-4"-er that spoils the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penguin8797 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Anyone seen the most recent NAO observations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Anyone seen the most recent NAO observations? Yeah, a brief dip to neutral/negative and then back to positive. Of course the ensembles have been pretty bad with their forecasting of the NAO. That period from Nov 16 to Dec 16 on the bottom panel is embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hideous. Might be time to road trip it to Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Don't be sad about the 12Z GFS... trust me it's easily the coldest run in a long time when extrapolated... there's more to the atmosphere than the bottom 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 IF the pattern change comes in installments, itd be the best case scenario for our area imo. A tight gradient could be golden for our area with a possible train of L's/clippers. Once, or if, the "vodka" cold gets locked in, count on lots of supression where we can hopefully snag a clipper or two that doesnt track well south of us. Of course, this would be fine for me if we have a nice snowcover courtesy of the tight gradient pattern. Would be nice. Personally I would rather we bust hard on this winter and get it over and out of here. We are due for a **** winter..we really are..forget, forgive and move on. Lets face it bro. We technically lost 1/3rd or more of our Winter to a torch. Spring Robins and tulips will be here before you know u it. Also a fresh severe weather season:-)!! Tiger bats will be a cracking in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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