Nic Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I watched the Canadian Weather Network just now and if you just listened to them you'd think that this upcoming pattern change is no big deal, with temperatures simply back down to average in Toronto by this time next week. The latest model runs would beg to differ however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I watched the Canadian Weather Network just now and if you just listened to them you'd think that this upcoming pattern change is no big deal, with temperatures simply back down to average in Toronto by this time next week. The latest model runs would beg to differ however. Meh, they're being cautious. Not a bad idea I think although if the EURO/GFS progs are correct, we should be several degrees below normal early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi There are some heavy hitters in the 6-10 and 8-14 super ensembles as I see brutal periods from 69,74,82,94,96,04 etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 And from Bill @ IndyWX: Sunday Manifesto: Extreme Pattern Flip Coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Meanwhile...Valdez, AK, the snowiest city in the U.S., is having an exceptionally snowy winter thus far. While much of the rest of the US has seen very scarce snow, Valdez is literally buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 And from Bill @ IndyWX: Sunday Manifesto: Extreme Pattern Flip Coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Meanwhile...Valdez, AK, the snowiest city in the U.S., is having an exceptionally snowy winter thus far. While much of the rest of the US has seen very scarce snow, Valdez is literally buried https://www.facebook...99871836&type=1 I have been following Valdez for the last 10-12 days. Amazing stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I have been following Valdez for the last 10-12 days. Amazing stuff Holy crap!! Those were some amazing pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Please try to keep the posts about the midweek storm in the relevant storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Welcome to wonderful Valdez Alaska....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I have been following Valdez for the last 10-12 days. Amazing stuff Funny I too have been following all the Alaska climo stuff since that monster storm back in Nov that hammered Nome. Valdez has been amazing. Nome has been breaking some record lows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Funny I too have been following all the Alaska climo stuff since that monster storm back in Nov that hammered Nome. Valdez has been amazing. Nome has been breaking some record lows too. There's always winter somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Please try to keep the posts about the midweek storm in the relevant storm thread. They're just assimilating some upstream observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Holy cow. The cold being depicted on some of the spreads is insane. Giving new meaning to "bone chilling" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Holy cow. The cold being depicted on some of the spreads is insane. Giving new meaning to "bone chilling" lol I guess if you're turtlehurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 pattern change fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 pattern change fail? Is that your kid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nope... 12z GFS is a lot colder...maybe there will be a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The freezer to get charged up! http://weatherhistor...ver-canada.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 IND not thinking the cold air is going to last very long.. HOWEVER THE BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE COLD AIR IS REPLACED BY MILDER PACIFIC AIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Upper 40's into the 50's will be replaced by mid 30's to low 40's for central IN. Bam, pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 lol. Best part of the pattern change is that it will finally get some snow into the north central regions. If we ever do the block over western Canada/Alaska, it should fuel the next cold shots. Yep, agreed. Winter returns to the northern tier and Canada. Maybe it'll pay off here sometime in February. Or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yep, agreed. Winter returns to the northern tier and Canada. Maybe it'll pay off here sometime in February. Or March. That will be a cold rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 so we go zonal with a tight gradient. Can't wait to see more modified PAC air. Like stated before the pattern change is gonna come in installments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 gfs has the 0 850 line over northern AL at 192 hr. Euro has it over GRR. no doubt gfs will begin to collapse to the euro and the zonal pac flow forecasts will win out. A pattern change? yep, for Canada and northern tier states. What year was it when it stayed brutal cold over Canada throughout all of January with record warmth over the Conus? It was '01 or '02 I believe and it was the year that JB claimed January would be the coldest on record and it turned out one of the warmest on record. He said he nailed the 500mb forecast but it didn't work out at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOT's latest discussion for Thursday and beyond: THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. 500MB TROUGH STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUR/FRI AND REMAINS ARND 2-3 SIGMA BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER ARND -14 TO -16 DEG C OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. IT APPEARS A BLOCKY LIKE PATTERN MAY BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHICH FAVORS A CONTINUED COOL REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE/TROUGH...WILL DICTATE ON THE PATH OF ANY SYNOPTIC EVENTS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO ARRIVE AROUND DAYBREAK THUR...AS PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WINDS OVER NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN COULD BE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS COULD EASILY FAVOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THUR...THEN WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE COLD POOL AND PUSHES ANY LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS TO NORTHWEST IN AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LLVLS ARRIVES FRI AFTN/EVE AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WX TO THE CWFA FRI/SAT/SUN. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL TEMPS APPEAR TO FAVOR A SUB-SEASONAL APPROACH IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN SLOW REBOUND TOWARDS UPR 20S/LOW 30S. HOWEVER AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE PERIOD. That's the key to whether cold locks in permanently or comes and goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 New CPC outlooks aren't nearly as exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Normal temperatures are a vast improvement. From the CPC it looks like near normal temperature and above normal precipitation are forecast for the Great Lakes, back to the Dakotas in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 gfs has the 0 850 line over northern AL at 192 hr. Euro has it over GRR. no doubt gfs will begin to collapse to the euro and the zonal pac flow forecasts will win out. A pattern change? yep, for Canada and northern tier states. What year was it when it stayed brutal cold over Canada throughout all of January with record warmth over the Conus? It was '01 or '02 I believe and it was the year that JB claimed January would be the coldest on record and it turned out one of the warmest on record. He said he nailed the 500mb forecast but it didn't work out at the surface At least we are seeing Canada filling with cold air. The change will probably be most dramatic in the northern tier with southward extent yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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