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Pattern Change.


SpartyOn

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I watched the Canadian Weather Network just now and if you just listened to them you'd think that this upcoming pattern change is no big deal, with temperatures simply back down to average in Toronto by this time next week. The latest model runs would beg to differ however.

Meh, they're being cautious. Not a bad idea I think although if the EURO/GFS progs are correct, we should be several degrees below normal early next week.

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lol. Best part of the pattern change is that it will finally get some snow into the north central regions. If we ever do the block over western Canada/Alaska, it should fuel the next cold shots.

Yep, agreed. Winter returns to the northern tier and Canada. Maybe it'll pay off here sometime in February. Or March.

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gfs has the 0 850 line over northern AL at 192 hr. Euro has it over GRR.

no doubt gfs will begin to collapse to the euro and the zonal pac flow forecasts will win out. A pattern change? yep, for Canada and northern tier states. What year was it when it stayed brutal cold over Canada throughout all of January with record warmth over the Conus? It was '01 or '02 I believe and it was the year that JB claimed January would be the coldest on record and it turned out one of the warmest on record. He said he nailed the 500mb forecast but it didn't work out at the surface :lol:

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LOT's latest discussion for Thursday and beyond:

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. 500MB TROUGH STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUR/FRI AND REMAINS ARND 2-3 SIGMA BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER ARND -14 TO -16 DEG C OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. IT APPEARS A BLOCKY LIKE PATTERN MAY BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHICH FAVORS A CONTINUED COOL REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE/TROUGH...WILL DICTATE ON THE PATH OF ANY SYNOPTIC EVENTS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO ARRIVE AROUND DAYBREAK THUR...AS PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WINDS OVER NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN COULD BE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS COULD EASILY FAVOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THUR...THEN WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE COLD POOL AND PUSHES ANY LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS TO NORTHWEST IN AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LLVLS ARRIVES FRI AFTN/EVE AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WX TO THE CWFA FRI/SAT/SUN. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL TEMPS APPEAR TO FAVOR A SUB-SEASONAL APPROACH IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN SLOW REBOUND TOWARDS UPR 20S/LOW 30S. HOWEVER AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE PERIOD.

That's the key to whether cold locks in permanently or comes and goes.

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gfs has the 0 850 line over northern AL at 192 hr.   Euro has it over GRR.

no doubt gfs will begin to collapse to the euro and the zonal pac flow forecasts will win out.  A pattern change?  yep, for Canada and northern tier states.   What year was it when it stayed brutal cold over Canada throughout all of January with record warmth over the Conus?   It was '01 or '02 I believe and it was the year that JB claimed January would be the coldest on record and it turned out one of the warmest on record.   He said he nailed the 500mb forecast but it didn't work out at the surface :lol:

At least we are seeing Canada filling with cold air. The change will probably be most dramatic in the northern tier with southward extent yet to be determined.

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