baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18z GEFS definitely don't agree with the OP 18z GFS: Warmth safely held at bay similar to the EURO and GGEM. It has been frustrating watching the GFS op. It has been a lone stalwart the last day of runs with zero support from its own ensemble as well as the EC/UK/ECENS. I am still trying to figure out exactly why the GFS op is so different. It obviously stems from how much energy is cutoff across the intermountain W and the subsequent strength of the leading wave into the plains. It is also significantly warmer in the low levels as the cold surge comes through the Canadian Prairies. Once again I am not sure why it is so different compared to the ensemble. I think the former may very well be to due to the higher resolution of the op deterministic w.r.t. the ensembles. In theory I guess there is a tiny chance the GFS op could occur, but given the track history of the GFS lately, combined with superior guidance from the EC/ECENS, I am not giving the GFS op any chance of verifying. EC ensemble/GEFS way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Even glancing at the NAM at 84 hours...it is substantially colder than the op GFS 18Z. Much more similar to the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The worse case scenario could see the Alaskan vortex coming back after a short period of blocking, or the ridge retrograding to the other side of the globe and if that happens then it will probably be a December repeat. The only issue may be the strong stratospheric warming on the Euro to happen in the longer range. It's unsure if it will do anything other than make the stratospheric temperature maps pretty to look at for a while. It's currently the buzzword since it's possibly something that will change things up via making the polar vortex split but nobody really knows if that will happen or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The worse case scenario could see the Alaskan vortex coming back after a short period of blocking, or the ridge retrograding to the other side of the globe and if that happens then it will probably be a December repeat. The only issue may be the strong stratospheric warming on the Euro to happen in the longer range. It's unsure if it will do anything other than make the stratospheric temperature maps pretty to look at for a while. It's currently the buzzword since it's possibly something that will change things up via making the polar vortex split but nobody really knows if that will happen or not. December repeat, no thanks. I'm hoping the pattern gets rearranged by a combination of the SSW, changes in Alaska, and the storm roaring up into E Canada next week. Some of the local met's are starting to talk about a polar vortex split. Lots of question right now. Hopefully some of them can get answered later next week. As far as the models and teleconnections telling us what's going on - I don't think the models have grasped the anticipated changes yet - at least not every one. I'm sticking to watching the teleconnection changes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It has been frustrating watching the GFS op. It has been a lone stalwart the last day of runs with zero support from its own ensemble as well as the EC/UK/ECENS. I am still trying to figure out exactly why the GFS op is so different. It obviously stems from how much energy is cutoff across the intermountain W and the subsequent strength of the leading wave into the plains. It is also significantly warmer in the low levels as the cold surge comes through the Canadian Prairies. Once again I am not sure why it is so different compared to the ensemble. I think the former may very well be to due to the higher resolution of the op deterministic w.r.t. the ensembles. In theory I guess there is a tiny chance the GFS op could occur, but given the track history of the GFS lately, combined with superior guidance from the EC/ECENS, I am not giving the GFS op any chance of verifying. EC ensemble/GEFS way to go. Ensembles. Poppycock. It's the 18z OP GFS or bust for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Ensembles. Poppycock. It's the 18z OP GFS or bust for me. Looks like you are going for Powerball (the lottery, not the poster) odds there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Looks like you are going for Powerball (the lottery, not the poster) odds there. Lock it in. The 18z GFS has been troll approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The 00z NAM is in! Too bad it's only marginally useful inside 48 hours these days, much less 84 hours when everything is still offshore. The wait for the credible 00z models continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 This is a look we haven't seen this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It has been frustrating watching the GFS op. It has been a lone stalwart the last day of runs with zero support from its own ensemble as well as the EC/UK/ECENS. I am still trying to figure out exactly why the GFS op is so different. It obviously stems from how much energy is cutoff across the intermountain W and the subsequent strength of the leading wave into the plains. It is also significantly warmer in the low levels as the cold surge comes through the Canadian Prairies. Once again I am not sure why it is so different compared to the ensemble. I think the former may very well be to due to the higher resolution of the op deterministic w.r.t. the ensembles. In theory I guess there is a tiny chance the GFS op could occur, but given the track history of the GFS lately, combined with superior guidance from the EC/ECENS, I am not giving the GFS op any chance of verifying. EC ensemble/GEFS way to go. I think this explains the GFS well. It took a step back towards that horrible phase 5 which we have been stuck in along with 4 going back to the fall. For some reason or another the GFS seems to pick up on that stuff quicker ( sudden changes ) then most. Keep in mind none of the models showed the MJO doing that. GFS however does tend to over do it. Which in this case would be keeping the pattern as is for alot longer despite the GFS showing it turning back the other way and heading into phase 7-8 and it's ensembles showing a move to phase 7 and crapping. We go back to that sh!tty phase 5 again then yes the GFS makes alot of sense. I am honestly not sure what will happen and i am near certain nobody else will know as well. This track back towards 5 could be a hiccup or it could be real. Most models say it is a hiccup but ala most models did not showing this happening either and nor did anyone else. Thus it will be a wait and see game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Well see what tomorrow brings for the MJO. At least there's guidance that it takes it through 7, 8, and 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think this explains the GFS well. It took a step back towards that horrible phase 5 which we have been stuck in along with 4 going back to the fall. For some reason or another the GFS seems to pick up on that stuff quicker ( sudden changes ) then most. Keep in mind none of the models showed the MJO doing that. GFS however does tend to over do it. Which in this case would be keeping the pattern as is for alot longer despite the GFS showing it turning back the other way and heading into phase 7-8 and it's ensembles showing a move to phase 7 and crapping. We go back to that sh!tty phase 5 again then yes the GFS makes alot of sense. I am honestly not sure what will happen and i am near certain nobody else will know as well. This track back towards 5 could be a hiccup or it could be real. Most models say it is a hiccup but ala most models did not showing this happening either and nor did anyone else. Thus it will be a wait and see game. The 06Z GFS finally cracked. Pretty substantial differences by day 4. MJO activity very well could have played a role, but that wasn't the only thing since the GFS deterministic was literally the only GFS member amongst its ensemble with that weak northern stream and huge cutoff across the 4 corners. Either way it was a rather substantial fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 What exactly does this mean BI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The 06Z GFS finally cracked. Pretty substantial differences by day 4. MJO activity very well could have played a role, but that wasn't the only thing since the GFS deterministic was literally the only GFS member amongst its ensemble with that weak northern stream and huge cutoff across the 4 corners. Either way it was a rather substantial fail. Models are finally starting to catch on the pattern change, and I stil think that this system has tons of potential.. 06z looks a lot better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The 06Z GFS finally cracked. Pretty substantial differences by day 4. MJO activity very well could have played a role, but that wasn't the only thing since the GFS deterministic was literally the only GFS member amongst its ensemble with that weak northern stream and huge cutoff across the 4 corners. Either way it was a rather substantial fail. Models are finally starting to catch on the pattern change, and I stil think that this system has tons of potential.. 06z looks a lot better... Way-to-go GFS! Now that's more like it! Glad to see ya joining the party in GL's. Yea, in a season of "nowcast" snowfall events, its wwaaayyy too early to be throwing any towels for the lakes region. Especially with the apparent pattern re-alignment that's been talked about and predicted to be occurring in relation to this timeframe. Don't touch that dial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 DT Says "Historic Pattern Flip" coming... http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/BACKUP/backup.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The 06Z GFS finally cracked. Pretty substantial differences by day 4. MJO activity very well could have played a role, but that wasn't the only thing since the GFS deterministic was literally the only GFS member amongst its ensemble with that weak northern stream and huge cutoff across the 4 corners. Either way it was a rather substantial fail. Great insights, BI. You've been waiting for the GFS to come around all this time and finally called it with the 06z run. It looks like off-hour GFS FTW, as the 12z offers offers full support for the 06z run. 1/8 12z GFS at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Looks like some nice LES coming to the UP this coming week... Hopefully northern Lower gets in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 http://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_ext_ao_bias.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 http://policlimate.c...xt_ao_bias.html Holy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 That would be ugly... Also would probably spill a bunch of cold air into the deep southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 "Winter" thus far and pattern change....... http://weatherhistor...e-art-thou.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The 06Z GFS finally cracked. Pretty substantial differences by day 4. MJO activity very well could have played a role, but that wasn't the only thing since the GFS deterministic was literally the only GFS member amongst its ensemble with that weak northern stream and huge cutoff across the 4 corners. Either way it was a rather substantial fail. Unfortunitely the ground is like this: so that is issue number 1 of many. Where I live that cold blast will rail us one day with highs in the upper 20s and that will take very strong mid to low level cold air advection with 850s reaching -16C. Then the next day we will be locked in with -12 to -14C 850s and with a light west wind reach the low 30s. WIth so much bare ground with a surface albedo of .15 to .30 pending on what kind of bare ground your sitting on compared to snow of .75 to .88. Number 2 is the constant flow coming over the rockies creating downsloping winds. I guess it is to much go ask for a change out west or some snow cover at least all the way down to Wyoming/South Dakota to negate some of it....I guess I haven't paid much attention to it in the past but it sure seems like it is much more profound this year then in recent years Number 3 is the Euro shows a weakly negative PNA and EPO with a Negative NAO but it is a East based one. This if I know these correctly would indicate a large ridgein the Alaska but a more smooth one into the US because the -NAO is so far east based that the trough will be tilted with the colest air moving more ESE than SE or S. Todays 12z model indicies: Odd of East Based NAO. The GFS ensemble mean have a positive West based one and weakly negative east based. So they are still struggling with this on our side of the globe even with the SSW event taking form. but the GFS and Euro still want a slightly negative PNA and EPO. As far as the AO the GFS has a highly negative AO prediction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 "Winter" thus far and pattern change....... http://weatherhistor...e-art-thou.html Good read, look forward to your update. For me its not about yet another season cracking the top 20 snowiest anymore, its about having a wintry second half to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 lol @ 18z nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 lol @ 18z nam... Why do you say that? Is it because of the two pieces of energy that are so close yet remain unphased? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Why do you say that? Is it because of the two pieces of energy that are so close yet remain unphased? Maybe there's a joke hidden in the mos. No major changes as far as I could see. It's just less phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Why do you say that? Is it because of the two pieces of energy that are so close yet remain unphased? Pretty much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Pretty much.. Maybe the clipper will drop some snow behind it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.