RogueWaves Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The 00z GFS is ugly as hell. Downslopoing winds have been a staple this winter so far. That map is ugly. And is a big reason why locally we recently had a high of 34F with 850s around -15 to -16C that afternoon. Clearly the NE may far much better with cold air coming off that snow field. Every day that passes the sun get's stronger. Even the west looks pretty bare with snow. I don't know what normal is but it's pretty obvious this isn't it. For the month we are now also today was 70/48/59 = +27F for the day. Yeah, that is almost 30F mean above normal. The high was 40F above normal. This puts the month at +10.4F now. I am pretty surprised it has started this warm. The next 5 days will average about 12-13F above normal means with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s maybe mid 50s one day. lows above freezing until the 12th. The current average is 42.5F which is 3rd warmest on record in STL. This will be maintained threw the 11th and likely raised to around 44F. After that it will get colder, but it is possible this will affect the Lakes and East much more than our area. It is probably in the 95% or higher probability based on forecast accuracy and records threw only 6 days that January will be above average. There just isn't the snow cover north of us to change that, even if the pattern changed. This is millions of square miles of surface albedo change from this time last year and even more so than 2009. I wonder if there is any data out there showing snow cover or snow depth anomalies vs the state of the Climate Indicies. I still think the Lakes and East will see some snow this year. Here's news. The Lakes are already seeing snow this year. As a matter of fact, even though its been above freezing (up to a mini-torch of 50) for the past 2 days we still have snow on the ground, not to mention lots of big piles from this week's snowstorm. Not everybody has scored, but so far, this winter is far, far ahead of many past el-nino winters I can personally remember. Someone over on Western posted the same national snow cover maps for 6-Jan-2005 on through 2012 (8 seasons), and lol, there was only 2 (2008 & 2010) where mby had any real snow during this first week of January & this year makes a 3rd. And I consider these recent years as banner winters snowfall wise for this area! As I wrote in another thread, its not conventional, but the snow bonanza is just to the NE of the Lakes and I see this spreading SW as we go forward.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 This is the first time I've checked this thread out, mainly because all I've heard is pattern change for the past 3 weeks. So I finally look it over and WOW!. I thought I'd accidently clicked on Accucrap. Talk about having to seperate the wheat from the chaff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Wow reading this thread makes me wonder if its March 1st and it hasn't snowed a flake yet. I mean I am not trying to be an optimist or pessimist because personally I care only about active weather. If it were storming right now I would be a happy man. However the point I am making is that some here change their mind about what will happen going forth every 20 seconds. Not everyone of your scatterbrained thoughts needs to be posted. Also some are just purely trolling and should stop. No one cares how much snow Wisconsin/Ohio/Michigan/Illinois/Indiana get compared to each other. The only thing anyone should care about is how much snow is in their own backyard unless they like tracking numbers for the sake of tracking them. Using that stuff as trolling material is listless and pointless. We are all here to enjoy weather maybe some here need to realize that quickly instead of being clowns. _______________________ Another week people then will be in a more like winter pattern. Hang in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Here's news. The Lakes are already seeing snow this year. As a matter of fact, even though its been above freezing (up to a mini-torch of 50) for the past 2 days we still have snow on the ground, not to mention lots of big piles from this week's snowstorm. Not everybody has scored, but so far, this winter is far, far ahead of many past el-nino winters I can personally remember. Someone over on Western posted the same national snow cover maps for 6-Jan-2005 on through 2012 (8 seasons), and lol, there was only 2 (2008 & 2010) where mby had any real snow during this first week of January & this year makes a 3rd. And I consider these recent years as banner winters snowfall wise for this area! As I wrote in another thread, its not conventional, but the snow bonanza is just to the NE of the Lakes and I see this spreading SW as we go forward.. To be fair, the only areas in the lakes that have "scored" per say are the snow belts. And that's to be expected which why I love lake effect snow. If all else fails synoptically, the lake effect snow belts will still see appreciable snow. Detroit, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Toronto aren't doing too impressive relative to average. However, they have seen more snow in comparison to most in the midwest and along the east coast (with the possible exception of places such as Minneapolis). Granted it can always change for the better with over naerly 3 months of winter left, and as I said, all it takes it a good snow event or two in these areas to wipe out their deficit. That's been the problem more than anything so far, getting a moderate to heavy synoptic snow event around these parts and the usual clippers. But history shows even in the worst of winters these areas will see at least couple moderate snow events if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Ok so no one post anything unless it is a dead serious post because you are pissing off stebo. Remember because stebo doesn't it means you don't care! Clearly you didn't actually read my post, the point I am driving at is the constant trolling and fighting between people in this region is unneeded. I didn't say anything about being dead serious at all, but posting every single thought that jumps into your mind ends up causing a bunch of scatterbrained posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Clearly you didn't actually read my post, the point I am driving at is the constant trolling and fighting between people in this region is unneeded. I didn't say anything about being dead serious at all, but posting every single thought that jumps into your mind ends up causing a bunch of scatterbrained posts. Lighten up Francis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 That map isn't normal by a long shot. In January you would expect to see the snow cover down to I-70/ Ohio River respectively. With some bare areas now and then in January in the front range areas. This weather pattern will have consequences of some sort if it doesn't do a flip pretty soon. Spring drought? maybe. Lost tourism income for ski towns etc, already happening. Agricultural impacts - possibly. Water supplies/reservoir impacts in the west? maybe. It was 26° above normal today (6th) here! Still 40° at 1am. Doubtful..Still many locales are well above norms in the precip department. Some areas need no more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS has been fairly consistent showing a deep arctic "spill" of sorts seeping into the Canadian Prairie. Also the ECMWF still trying to build some heights over Alaska in the later hours. As discussed before the models might be having trouble picking up on these anticipated changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 we are going to need a heck of a pattern change to take a dent out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 we are going to need a heck of a pattern change to take a dent out of this There's no doubt were going to have a pattern change. The only thing that concerns me is the lack of snow depth. How cold is it really going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The only thing is were not alone! Basically the entire nation has had a lack of snowfall. Millions are being lost at the ski resorts out west and in the east. This first half of winter has to be one of the worse for the ski resorts in recent memory. Its a matter of time before we see a flip and the nation will make up for lost time. It would just be nice to see at least part of the nation get a good snowstorm right now. I would like to see something happen in the Great Lakes/Midwest to get some snow cover established to help us down the road. I think the changes are coming but were going to have a wait a little bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Ready to install the chase equipment in the SpartyTiv. This mild spell is making me crave more severe than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We do not need below normal temperatures for the month for winter storms. We just need cold air available in canada for the storms to pull in, which has not been available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 12z Canadian in a week. Say hello to my lil frien! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Doubtful..Still many locales are well above norms in the precip department. Some areas need no more rain. I was referring to areas of the inter-mountain west, California, northern plains where there is drought already. Ohio Valley is doing good, Washington, New Mexico, Southern CO too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Seems like every model has featured a pattern change in day 7-10 for the last 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Seems like every model has featured a pattern change in day 7-10 for the last 3 weeks. It is now into the day 5 (120h) range. So it looks like it is coming but the question is will it have staying power. BTW ... the Euro & Canadian look like they would produce some awesome LES. I just might head to the west side of the state next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 warm and boring to cold and boring FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 warm and boring to cold and boring FTL It will get active real soon. La Nina + cold = fun. This active pattern won't stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 It will get active real soon. La Nina + cold = fun. This active pattern won't stop. What is nice is that the boring weather is happening right now with the mild weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Once Again DTX bullish on a full scale pattern change. 3 AFDs and a full disco all pointing to a large scale shift and complete change of the pattern thus ushering in sustained winter conditions. Like stated above and in various discos and AFDs, if the PAC jet roars into this cold we are gonna get crushed..back end loaded FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The pattern will change, both the Euro/GFS agree on the building of an Alaskan ridge. The problem is if it stays. The long range GFS has been retrograding the ridge into Russia which lowers heights over Canada and all the cold air goes back up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 The pattern will change, both the Euro/GFS agree on the building of an Alaskan ridge. The problem is if it stays. The long range GFS has been retrograding the ridge into Russia which lowers heights over Canada and all the cold air goes back up there. Noticed that also. But I'm thinking the GFS needs more pieces of the puzzle first. Once this storm mid week roars north it's hopefull that it might "adjust" or shift things around. What we really need is Greenland block IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS has been hinting at an incremental type pattern change, with temps warming, at least modestly, around D7, before cooling off again. I think that's a plausible scenario but neither the 12z EURO, EURO ensembles, or GGEM indicate that moderation trend. Those models have us in the freezer through D10 once that storm passes next week. It'll be interesting to see who wins the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS has been hinting at an incremental type pattern change, with temps warming, at least modestly, around D7, before cooling off again. I think that's a plausible scenario but neither the 12z EURO, EURO ensembles, or GGEM indicate that moderation trend. Those models have us in the freezer through D10 once that storm passes next week. It'll be interesting to see who wins the battle. Crazy low 850s shown in some runs. Lakes will come alive like no other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS has been hinting at an incremental type pattern change, with temps warming, at least modestly, around D7, before cooling off again. I think that's a plausible scenario but neither the 12z EURO, EURO ensembles, or GGEM indicate that moderation trend. Those models have us in the freezer through D10 once that storm passes next week. It'll be interesting to see who wins the battle. GFS continues to have a scatter vorticity and nothing really strong. Even several GFS ensemble members don't agree with the OP. I would not put much money on the GFS. GFS was the module that never wanted to phase the Holiday storm keeping it way east. The EURO did good starting around 5 days out if I recall correctly. It was never a major storm but did give several of us some accumulating snow which is what the Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The GGEM is far different. Less progressive with the arctic s/w, it has big plans developing(but what else is new on that model). The GGEM would spin a fart up into a 980 MB storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Best case scenario for rest of winter, 1) We get a trough that kicks of some LES and snow snowers, and give most of the area around the lakes a inch or snow of like last week. 2) Then we get another secondary storm the follows that drops a general 2-4 or 3-6 event in the OV. 3) Then we get cooler temperatures that go along with the snow cover, and the cold air will stay put. 4) Clipper madness. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The ECMWF is as scattered as the GFS. Its timing issues pushing out the trough in the 144hr+ range is questionable. I doubt it lasts that long. By the truncation, everything is messy. The Vorticities on the EURO is not as scattered as the GFS at either H120 or H144. The MW/GL vorticity is much more defined & deeper on the EURO then the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 GFS continues to have a scatter vorticity and nothing really strong. Even several GFS ensemble members don't agree with the OP. I would not put much money on the GFS. GFS was the module that never wanted to phase the Holiday storm keeping it way east. The EURO did good starting around 5 days out if I recall correctly. It was never a major storm but did give several of us some accumulating snow which is what the Euro showed. 18z GEFS definitely don't agree with the OP 18z GFS: Warmth safely held at bay similar to the EURO and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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